Realized P&L (7d)
-$2.86K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.35K
Hit rate
13.0%
Resolved (7d)
4
Trades (7d)
28
733 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$30.9K
$390.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$533
Open exposure
$179.2K
23 positions
First seen
2026-09-24
last 10-27 20:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Politics
50% 64% -$4,016
Other
48% 62% +$3,473
Tech
2% — —
Sports
0% 100% +$14
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 82 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +77,500 $65,465 79¢ $61.2K -$4,240 10-27 10:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +21,000 $17,950 97¢ $20.4K +$2,420 10-27 00:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +20,300 $16,465 95¢ $19.3K +$2,820 10-27 01:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +16,225 $13,981 96¢ $15.5K +$1,514 10-27 20:37
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +15,500 $13,963 94¢ $14.6K +$684 10-22 00:54
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +10,000 $9,344 99¢ $9.9K +$511 10-27 00:59
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +8,212 $7,841 98¢ $8.1K +$223 10-22 07:14
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +6,176 $5,541 98¢ $6.1K +$526 10-24 02:57
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? No +5,000 $4,425 97¢ $4.9K +$428 10-06 02:02
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +4,911 $4,271 98¢ $4.8K +$566 10-26 11:35
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +20,988 $4,853 16¢ $3.4K -$1,495 10-18 02:43
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +3,969 $2,893 83¢ $3.3K +$402 10-14 05:06
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +3,100 $2,790 75¢ $2.3K -$465 10-18 09:36
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +2,000 $1,812 99¢ $2.0K +$172 10-14 06:06
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No +1,262 $966 99¢ $1.3K +$285 10-24 02:56
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +1,500 $1,282 58¢ $878 -$404 10-26 01:59
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,400 $615 48¢ $679 +$64 10-19 10:57
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026 No +294 $265 100¢ $293 +$28 09-27 06:46
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? Yes +210 $142 78¢ $165 +$23 10-03 11:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +2,470 $1,897 5¢ $123 -$1,774 10-17 07:41
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +444 $155 18¢ $82 -$73 10-04 15:57
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +5,000 $76 1¢ $58 -$18 10-04 01:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +0 -$156 99¢ $0 +$156 10-27 06:58