Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$262

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved

101

Trades

288

lifetime

Volume

$21.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$278

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-27 13:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 51% -$918

Other

32% 85% +$564

Politics

18% 50% +$93

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+605	$197	40¢	$245	+$47	09-28 18:04
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	+32	$25	64¢	$21	-$4	10-02 19:05
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	+142	$48	8¢	$11	-$37	09-28 18:04
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+73	$50	1¢	$1	-$49	09-28 07:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$1.7K	2,532	2,532	+0	No	+$147	03-13 19:45
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	8	$1.7K	11,622	1,622	+10,000	Yes	+$91	08-30 05:50
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$1.6K	2,241	2,241	+0	No	+$243	03-14 14:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 21:15 UTC	2	$1.2K	630	630	+0	Down	+$1	03-12 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 10:55 UTC	2	$1.1K	585	583	+2	Up	+$80	03-13 11:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 19:10 UTC	2	$1.1K	556	555	+1	Up	+$51	03-11 19:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 20:05 UTC	2	$1.0K	535	534	+0	Down	+$30	03-12 20:10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$1.0K	1,055	837	+219	Yes	+$90	09-12 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 17:40 UTC	2	$1.0K	510	510	+0	Down	+$6	03-12 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 13:35 UTC	2	$901	458	457	+0	Down	+$5	03-14 13:40
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	4	$704	462	462	+0	Yes	+$44	08-30 05:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 19:15 UTC	2	$605	308	308	+0	Up	+$5	03-11 19:20
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	5	$447	295	295	+0	open	—	09-01 17:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 13:55 UTC	1	$443	1,582	0	+1,582	Down	-$443	03-14 14:00
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$403	868	263	+605	open	—	09-28 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 08:05 UTC	2	$346	209	206	+3	Up	+$66	03-14 08:11
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	3	$308	209	209	+0	Yes	+$4	03-05 13:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 10:05 UTC	6	$258	419	415	+4	Down	+$19	03-13 10:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 10:25 UTC	2	$230	305	0	+305	Up	-$212	03-14 10:29
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?	4	$205	162	162	+0	Yes	-$13	09-04 19:08
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$199	104	104	+0	open	—	09-04 15:39
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	3	$196	130	130	+0	open	—	09-04 18:06
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	2	$193	116	116	+0	open	—	09-04 19:07
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	3	$173	101	101	+0	open	—	10-27 13:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 09:30 UTC	2	$161	114	112	+2	Up	+$63	03-13 09:34
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	3	$154	94	94	+0	No	+$24	10-02 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	6	$150	459	0	+459	Down	-$150	09-04 18:46
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	2	$142	107	107	+0	Yes	+$42	09-25 13:50
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$131	70	70	+0	Yes	$0	03-03 18:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 09:55 UTC	2	$129	125	125	+0	Down	+$119	08-29 10:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:22:29	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	101	97¢	$98	0x83785b…
10-03 21:04:29	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	51	73¢	$37	0xfd9769…
10-03 20:52:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x264dfc…
10-03 20:51:32	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x3e161e…
10-02 19:05:08	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x196fc1…
10-02 16:02:09	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	94	95¢	$89	0xd227d1…
10-01 08:55:39	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	87	86¢	$74	0x095697…
09-28 18:04:33	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	142	34¢	$48	0x6ade23…
09-28 18:04:00	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	131	39¢	$51	0xe187dd…
09-28 07:04:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	73	69¢	$50	0xb019e8…
09-28 06:56:11	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	132	39¢	$51	0x9409dd…
09-26 10:17:29	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0x3ba0f6…
09-26 10:16:05	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xc9f537…
09-26 10:14:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xc499bc…
09-25 13:50:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	107	86¢	$92	0x7e01b9…
09-18 19:32:46	Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	188	34¢	$63	0x1af7b9…
09-18 19:31:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0x0194ff…
09-18 19:28:21	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0xdb3705…
09-18 19:25:31	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x4e6c53…
09-12 17:15:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	181	80¢	$145	0x15eb68…
09-12 17:13:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	77¢	$47	0x8f9ed9…
09-12 17:13:06	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	59	82¢	$48	0x892a25…
09-12 17:12:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	56	92¢	$51	0x98d750…
09-12 17:12:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xeefe1c…
09-05 07:18:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	53	48¢	$25	0x70fa39…
09-05 07:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xc8e968…
09-05 06:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x9da4b3…
09-05 06:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x401ebb…
09-05 06:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	59	2¢	$1	0xb183d8…
09-05 06:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x8edf9b…
09-05 06:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	59	43¢	$25	0x92171b…
09-04 19:46:37	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	567	35¢	$200	0xb991ae…
09-04 19:08:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	88¢	$43	0x01f398…
09-04 19:08:04	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?	Yes	SELL	162	59¢	$96	0xa8408d…
09-04 19:07:54	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	116	80¢	$93	0x68c645…
09-04 18:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x9dafa5…
09-04 18:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x7b2156…
09-04 18:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x799ac9…
09-04 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0xe976df…
09-04 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xafd67b…
09-04 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x1096c0…
09-04 18:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	54	47¢	$25	0xd0b3f4…
09-04 18:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x53e424…
09-04 18:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xfbf4c0…
09-04 18:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x8df105…
09-04 18:06:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0x39da2e…
09-04 18:06:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	207	25¢	$53	0xb7d311…
09-04 18:06:24	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	74¢	$96	0x43c53b…
09-04 18:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	167	48¢	$80	0x5173c6…
09-04 17:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x707a92…
09-04 17:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	33	79¢	$26	0x0f79f4…
09-04 17:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xcd19eb…
09-04 17:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x7507cb…
09-04 17:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x704679…
09-04 17:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x3bc263…
09-04 17:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0xe12a2f…
09-04 17:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x0dee40…
09-04 16:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	42	84¢	$35	0x0acc17…
09-04 16:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x611859…
09-04 16:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x0002ba…
09-04 16:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x48e8f5…
09-04 16:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2fcddb…
09-04 16:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe43253…
09-04 16:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc10b64…
09-04 16:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3396b6…
09-04 15:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xc3de71…
09-04 15:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x845813…
09-04 15:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xac92d1…
09-04 15:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1f8de8…
09-04 15:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x5a3752…
09-04 15:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe30b26…
09-04 15:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0x71e812…
09-04 15:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd3def3…
09-04 15:49:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4913f9…
09-04 15:39:52	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	95¢	$99	0xa952d7…
09-04 15:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x923d00…
09-04 15:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x53d06a…
09-04 15:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x8b609f…
09-04 15:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	51	71¢	$36	0x237729…
09-04 15:11:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xf04f1d…
09-04 15:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0xbc6aff…
09-04 15:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x727da8…
09-04 15:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x56f4ff…
09-04 15:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xf02432…
09-04 05:45:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	263	41¢	$108	0x102a13…
09-02 09:38:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0864b4…
09-02 09:38:46	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb18647…
09-02 09:38:46	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x6fd3d3…
09-02 09:38:46	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x27554d…
09-02 09:38:45	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x653a02…
09-02 09:38:45	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x1635d8…
09-02 09:38:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x67d711…
09-02 09:38:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x11acf6…
09-01 22:03:06	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?	Yes	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x40b1d0…
09-01 21:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xcca55d…
09-01 21:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xff25f5…
09-01 21:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc8edf4…
09-01 21:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4bd4f7…
09-01 21:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x1a9883…
09-01 21:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0xbd1068…