True-Wasabi — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$238

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

73.9%

Resolved (90d)

1,300

Trades (90d)

1,466

18,315 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$9.61K

$125.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$43

9 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 11-11 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 70% -$169

Other

10% 65% -$99

Tech

1% 100% +$45

Politics

0% 100% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 223 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will England win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	+6	$5	80¢	$5	+$0	11-10 13:23
Will Germany win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	+6	$5	78¢	$5	+$0	11-10 13:23
Will Montenegro win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	+7	$5	76¢	$5	+$0	11-10 13:23
Will Norway win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	+6	$5	80¢	$5	$0	11-10 13:23
Will Netherlands win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	+8	$5	64¢	$5	$0	11-10 13:23
Will Colombia win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	+7	$5	68¢	$5	$0	11-11 08:36
Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	+8	$5	64¢	$5	$0	11-10 13:22
Will Argentina win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	+8	$5	62¢	$5	$0	11-10 13:24
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	+5	$4	76¢	$4	$0	11-10 13:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	44	$1.1K	700	730	-30	Up	+$9	05-15 14:40
spy up or down on june 24 2026	3	$499	437	218	+220	Down	-$77	06-24 19:33
wti up or down on june 17 2026	3	$494	430	208	+222	Down	-$81	06-17 19:35
spy up or down on june 9 2026	3	$485	431	211	+220	Down	-$87	06-09 15:27
bitcoin up or down march 15 2026 9pm et	52	$423	318	314	+4	Up	+$0	03-16 01:50
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?	8	$394	230	230	+0	Up	+$52	05-20 17:21
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	7	$391	257	256	+1	No	-$8	05-08 14:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	12	$377	226	226	+0	Yes	+$45	05-20 16:02
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?	9	$357	256	256	+0	Yes	-$4	05-15 14:02
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 20?	9	$338	180	180	+0	Yes	+$21	05-20 19:34
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 7?	5	$304	162	162	+0	Down	+$4	05-07 20:05
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?	4	$292	156	156	+0	No	+$13	05-14 18:09
wti up or down on june 18 2026	2	$288	213	211	+2	Up	-$111	06-18 18:14
spy up or down on june 25 2026	4	$272	222	220	+2	Down	-$122	06-25 19:55
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	12	$263	194	194	+0	Yes	+$0	02-18 17:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$260	200	200	+0	Yes	-$20	05-08 09:19
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21?	4	$245	216	214	+2	Up	-$115	05-21 18:54
fl1 lyo ogc 2026 02 15 lyo	2	$231	132	132	+0	Yes	+$33	02-15 22:53
spy up or down on june 11 2026	4	$200	220	0	+220	Up	+$20	06-11 17:29
spy up or down on june 12 2026	1	$199	215	0	+215	Up	+$16	06-12 17:26
spy up or down on june 18 2026	1	$199	213	0	+213	Up	+$14	06-18 14:23
wti up or down on june 10 2026	2	$199	220	0	+220	Up	+$21	06-10 14:59
spy up or down on june 10 2026	3	$199	220	0	+220	Down	+$21	06-10 15:53
wti up or down on june 11 2026	1	$198	211	0	+211	Down	+$13	06-11 13:54
wti up or down on june 9 2026	1	$198	211	0	+211	Down	+$13	06-09 13:50
wti up or down on june 22 2026	1	$198	213	0	+213	Down	+$15	06-22 13:50
spy up or down on june 23 2026	1	$198	213	0	+213	Down	+$15	06-23 14:00
wti up or down on june 12 2026	1	$198	215	0	+215	Down	+$17	06-12 15:01
spy up or down on june 16 2026	1	$198	215	0	+215	Down	+$17	06-16 17:22
wti up or down on june 23 2026	1	$198	220	0	+220	Down	+$22	06-23 14:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 19:33:40	Will New Zealand win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x8c75ee…
11-11 08:36:42	Will Colombia win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x5912e3…
11-10 18:52:18	Will New Zealand win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x1dbe00…
11-10 13:24:42	Will Argentina win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x69b3ca…
11-10 13:23:40	Will Slovakia win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x87ad22…
11-10 13:23:40	Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x65cb0b…
11-10 13:23:37	Will Montenegro win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xd5c2db…
11-10 13:23:36	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x4588dd…
11-10 13:23:34	Will Norway win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2c5170…
11-10 13:23:33	Will Germany win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xc56dc6…
11-10 13:23:31	Will England win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x3ebdc2…
11-10 13:23:30	Will Netherlands win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x334746…
11-10 13:22:34	Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5616e2…
10-05 11:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x20a50d…
10-05 11:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xda499c…
10-05 11:20:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x3eab73…
10-05 11:15:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xf93fde…
10-05 11:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3a284b…
10-05 11:05:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xfcfd1c…
10-05 11:00:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xb25e5b…
10-05 10:50:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x3007e1…
10-05 10:45:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x8f1260…
10-05 10:40:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xa26af4…
10-05 10:35:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x6773a7…
10-05 10:25:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x0e18fd…
10-05 10:20:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xd0c48f…
10-05 10:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x966503…
10-05 10:05:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 10:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x87c964…
10-05 10:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xcd8cea…
10-05 10:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xaa78ac…
10-05 09:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x53008a…
10-05 09:50:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x7c54a9…
10-05 09:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd9d17d…
10-05 09:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd2ddee…
10-05 09:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x132d8a…
10-05 09:40:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x5fb2c8…
10-05 09:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x31736c…
10-05 09:25:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xf272fc…
10-05 09:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xa4a750…
10-05 09:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x64cbdf…
10-05 09:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x9bf386…
10-05 08:55:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xc9874b…
10-05 08:50:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x72bcbc…
10-05 08:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xb83e98…
10-05 08:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3bb268…
10-04 19:45:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xd68d65…
10-04 19:30:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xab44a9…
10-04 19:20:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf641fe…
10-04 19:00:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x4c94f6…
10-04 19:00:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x11431d…
10-04 18:30:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xf2a7c7…
10-04 18:25:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x3e59af…
10-04 18:20:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xc2b708…
10-04 18:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xb4f653…
10-04 18:00:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x18d0e8…
10-04 18:00:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x6eb18f…
10-04 17:55:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x3261c7…
10-04 17:50:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xd68acb…
10-04 17:45:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x407722…
10-04 17:40:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x91db9f…
10-04 17:35:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x5e4e7a…
10-04 17:30:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xb3b3fd…
10-04 17:30:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xaba3b9…
10-04 17:20:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x698fca…
10-04 17:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x9e62f9…
10-04 17:05:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x9fb61f…
10-04 17:00:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x5b58b4…
10-04 17:00:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xd4c27e…
10-04 16:56:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xdd2881…
10-04 16:50:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0f25bd…
10-04 16:45:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x4337d7…
10-04 16:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x0592cc…
10-04 16:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xbc819e…
10-04 16:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xb0d180…
10-04 16:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x9a39c3…
10-04 16:15:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xaa2133…
10-04 16:15:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xd5d838…
10-04 16:05:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x2ece51…
10-04 16:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x467a52…
10-04 15:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x8aff9e…
10-04 15:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x2cf589…
10-04 15:40:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xebc6e1…
10-04 15:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x6ab4df…
10-04 15:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x176276…
10-04 15:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x86d07d…
10-04 15:01:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x86fae2…
10-04 15:00:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x3e2e9f…
10-04 14:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x5f7efd…
10-04 14:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xc17b8c…
10-04 14:40:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3246e2…
10-04 14:35:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x3d8f5f…
10-04 14:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x0d791c…
10-04 14:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x1a3dd7…
10-04 14:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x510255…
10-04 14:15:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x1e8faa…
10-04 14:15:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x8107d5…
10-04 14:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x0d6864…
10-04 14:05:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xe26382…
10-04 14:00:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x64e1dc…
10-04 14:00:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xd1aee6…