Realized P&L
-$52
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
26.5%
Resolved
2,645
Trades
3,272
lifetime
Volume
$742
lifetime
Avg / trade
$0
Open exposure
$19
15 positions
First seen
2026-09-09
last 10-28 18:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Crypto
90% 5% -$49
Other
7% 36% +$0
Politics
3% 12% -$3
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
20 active days in 12wk • peak 339 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +5 $2 79¢ $4 +$1 09-23 19:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +5 $3 66¢ $3 +$0 10-28 18:01
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +5 $2 48¢ $2 $0 09-13 08:41
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +100 $1 2¢ $2 +$1 09-18 15:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +5 $2 26¢ $1 $0 09-14 23:34
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +5 $1 18¢ $1 $0 09-16 21:17
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +5 $1 18¢ $1 $0 09-16 13:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +5 $2 18¢ $1 -$1 09-16 18:04
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +5 $1 17¢ $1 +$0 10-28 14:55
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +50 $1 2¢ $1 $0 09-16 18:03
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 $0 09-16 19:12
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October? Yes +5 $2 11¢ $1 -$1 10-27 12:39
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes +10 $0 3¢ $0 $0 09-15 18:06
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +100 $0 0¢ $0 $0 09-16 10:59
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes +10 $0 1¢ $0 $0 09-16 19:42