(anonymous) 0x8cf2af…fa610f Create alert
bot 2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$8
Unrealized P&L
+$313
Hit rate
45.8%
Resolved
45
Trades
158
lifetime
Volume
$942
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$768
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-02
last 11-07 14:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 16 days
Categories
Other
60% 22% -$50
Politics
20% 67% +$72
Crypto
15% 21% -$20
Tech
3% 0% -$1
Sports
2% 50% +$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
20 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027? No +243 $49 84¢ $206 +$157 10-22 06:11
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $84 79¢ $158 +$74 10-28 02:21
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +200 $92 74¢ $147 +$56 10-29 17:36
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +400 $22 12¢ $48 +$26 10-29 17:35
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2,500 $20 1¢ $29 +$9 11-06 14:44
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +50 $24 56¢ $28 +$4 10-07 07:20
Will The MongolZ Win the IEM Beijing 2026? Yes +127 $25 22¢ $28 +$3 11-07 13:44
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +125 $15 14¢ $17 +$2 10-15 16:35
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m? Yes +28 $11 55¢ $15 +$4 10-31 17:02
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +122 $20 11¢ $13 -$6 11-06 15:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +111 $20 11¢ $12 -$8 10-31 00:49
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? Yes +30 $10 32¢ $10 $0 10-31 01:06
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m? Yes +12 $1 78¢ $9 +$8 10-22 16:09
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +60 $5 9¢ $5 +$0 11-07 13:46
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? Yes +14 $5 37¢ $5 +$0 11-07 14:07
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? No +20 $1 22¢ $4 +$3 10-27 04:18
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +100 $3 4¢ $4 +$1 10-26 09:56
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon hit 25% in any poll before the first round of the French presidential election? Yes +22 $5 19¢ $4 -$1 11-07 13:48
Will Lula da Silva be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +57 $5 6¢ $4 -$1 11-06 14:49
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +50 $5 7¢ $3 -$1 10-15 16:34
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +25 $5 12¢ $3 -$2 10-31 17:01
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? Yes +30 $5 10¢ $3 -$2 10-25 19:03
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $2 4¢ $2 +$0 10-31 00:58
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Yes +10 $3 24¢ $2 $0 10-09 17:03
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? Yes +5 $2 42¢ $2 +$0 10-09 17:00
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? Yes +40 $13 4¢ $2 -$11 10-09 16:17
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +10 $2 13¢ $1 -$1 10-09 16:19
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? Yes +15 $1 8¢ $1 +$0 10-22 16:14
Will Mongolia win Eurovision Asia 2026? Yes +143 $2 1¢ $1 -$1 11-06 15:19
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +34 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 11-06 14:44