(anonymous) 0x8cf2af…fa610f Create alert
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Realized P&L (30d)
-$30
Unrealized P&L
+$298
Hit rate
38.6%
Resolved (30d)
30
Trades (30d)
102
173 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$568
$996 lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$751
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-02
last 11-14 17:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
61% 18% -$90
Politics
20% 67% +$72
Crypto
14% 21% -$20
Tech
3% 0% -$1
Sports
2% 50% +$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027? No +243 $49 86¢ $208 +$159 10-22 06:11
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $84 74¢ $148 +$64 10-28 02:21
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +200 $92 72¢ $143 +$52 10-29 17:36
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +400 $22 11¢ $46 +$24 10-29 17:35
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +50 $24 56¢ $28 +$5 10-07 07:20
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2,500 $20 1¢ $26 +$6 11-06 14:44
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +125 $15 14¢ $17 +$2 10-15 16:35
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m? Yes +28 $11 58¢ $16 +$5 10-31 17:02
Next Fable Model (5.3+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +75 $15 20¢ $15 +$0 11-14 17:27
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m? Yes +12 $1 89¢ $11 +$10 10-22 16:09
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? No +10 $8 84¢ $8 +$0 10-07 07:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +111 $20 8¢ $8 -$12 10-31 00:49
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Yes +10 $2 76¢ $8 +$6 10-27 15:24
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +122 $20 5¢ $7 -$13 11-06 15:01
Will Jensen Huang publicly testify before Congress by December 31, 2026? No +14 $5 42¢ $6 +$1 11-14 17:31
Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? Yes +50 $7 12¢ $6 -$2 10-22 06:23
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? Yes +14 $5 42¢ $6 +$1 11-07 14:07
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028? Yes +57 $5 9¢ $5 +$0 11-14 06:15
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +60 $5 8¢ $5 +$0 11-07 13:46
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? Yes +30 $10 16¢ $5 -$5 10-31 01:06
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +100 $3 5¢ $5 +$2 10-26 09:56
Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +300 $2 1¢ $4 +$2 10-26 22:59
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +50 $5 7¢ $4 -$1 10-15 16:34
Will Lula da Silva be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +57 $5 5¢ $3 -$2 11-06 14:49
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? No +20 $1 14¢ $3 +$1 10-27 04:18
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Yes +10 $3 24¢ $2 $0 10-09 17:03
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? Yes +30 $5 8¢ $2 -$2 10-25 19:03
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $2 4¢ $2 +$0 10-31 00:58
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip? Yes +156 $5 1¢ $2 -$3 11-11 13:36
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +25 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 10-31 17:01