Unhealthy-Prize — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$732

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

6,936

Trades

123,162

lifetime

Volume

$2.80M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$2.35K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 09:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 282 days

Categories

Other

61% 37% -$12,663

Politics

24% 43% +$1,767

Sports

11% 38% -$2,852

Crypto

4% 34% +$427

Tech

0% 47% -$452

Pop-Culture

0% 25% -$136

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 674 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+514	$511	100¢	$513	+$2	10-21 16:50
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+289	$288	100¢	$288	+$0	10-23 01:58
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+296	$196	67¢	$199	+$3	10-28 02:28
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+282	$142	56¢	$159	+$17	10-26 07:45
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+345	$161	44¢	$150	-$11	09-22 04:04
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+959	-$22	14¢	$138	+$160	10-28 05:06
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+121	$119	100¢	$121	+$1	10-22 07:16
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+290	$115	30¢	$87	-$28	10-22 14:41
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+97	$101	86¢	$84	-$17	10-28 09:03
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+300	$125	27¢	$81	-$45	10-06 08:46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+91	-$133	84¢	$77	+$210	10-27 22:53
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-1,066	-$72	5¢	$-53	+$18	10-20 14:23
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+57	-$42	86¢	$49	+$91	10-28 09:55
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+47	-$44	99¢	$47	+$91	10-23 09:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-299	-$229	16¢	$-46	+$182	10-23 18:49
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+80	$23	44¢	$35	+$12	10-16 01:31
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	-32	$5	92¢	$-30	-$35	08-27 08:34
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	-29	-$48	98¢	$-28	+$20	10-23 21:07
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+38	$32	68¢	$26	-$6	10-28 02:05
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+277	$76	8¢	$22	-$54	10-27 23:22
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-950	-$44	2¢	$-21	+$23	10-21 17:41
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	+37	-$85	50¢	$18	+$104	10-27 19:22
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+173	-$6	8¢	$14	+$20	10-20 12:54
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+300	$36	4¢	$13	-$22	10-23 19:59
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+80	$12	16¢	$13	+$1	10-26 20:08
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+80	$9	13¢	$10	+$2	10-27 04:11
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+80	$10	12¢	$9	-$1	10-23 19:55
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+80	$14	10¢	$8	-$6	10-14 03:41
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-949	-$7	0¢	$-5	+$2	10-08 20:18
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	-92	-$4	5¢	$-5	-$1	08-22 05:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2,570	$143.7K	210,860	211,745	-885	No	+$219	02-10 01:16
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1,054	$53.2K	70,881	71,310	-429	Yes	+$869	03-04 16:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	1,260	$47.6K	61,370	60,354	+1,016	open	—	10-28 09:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	713	$36.7K	46,898	46,830	+69	No	+$225	04-24 20:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	448	$29.6K	32,589	32,287	+302	No	+$138	07-20 12:29
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	474	$29.0K	32,018	31,743	+275	Yes	+$304	09-19 23:28
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	970	$26.0K	156,993	156,344	+649	No	+$597	03-04 16:06
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	439	$19.6K	22,795	21,966	+829	No	+$655	02-24 16:36
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	422	$19.0K	29,832	28,359	+1,474	Yes	+$757	02-01 11:34
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	492	$18.4K	19,864	19,456	+408	Yes	+$285	05-19 23:23
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	298	$16.1K	21,526	21,526	+0	No	+$180	05-31 11:37
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 40 64	264	$14.6K	21,257	19,512	+1,745	No	+$352	02-16 09:22
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	498	$13.9K	51,050	48,222	+2,829	No	-$164	01-31 10:40
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	230	$13.3K	14,234	14,441	-207	open	—	10-27 22:53
will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	716	$12.8K	53,808	53,531	+278	No	+$328	02-01 04:29
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	532	$12.5K	14,768	14,468	+300	No	-$218	05-27 00:03
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	160	$11.9K	13,885	13,885	+0	No	+$67	05-29 05:57
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	217	$11.7K	11,216	10,916	+301	No	-$29	08-31 11:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	373	$11.6K	32,350	29,692	+2,658	No	-$138	01-30 09:27
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	198	$11.2K	11,563	11,563	+0	No	+$24	08-14 00:00
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	194	$10.9K	18,691	18,437	+254	Yes	+$616	02-28 06:13
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	167	$10.7K	10,611	10,492	+120	No	+$63	06-15 17:55
will drake maye win the 202526 nfl mvp award	330	$10.4K	15,174	14,634	+540	No	+$2	02-05 14:01
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	164	$10.1K	10,563	10,164	+399	No	+$522	05-19 23:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	141	$9.9K	10,892	10,891	+1	No	+$270	06-17 11:18
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	163	$9.3K	9,475	9,458	+17	No	-$56	08-29 21:54
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	154	$9.0K	10,709	10,708	+1	No	+$7	08-01 01:56
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	201	$8.9K	11,456	10,348	+1,107	Yes	+$83	09-15 16:07
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 320 339	306	$8.6K	13,751	13,023	+728	No	+$73	02-24 06:01
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	270	$7.6K	10,769	9,201	+1,568	Yes	+$107	02-16 16:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 10:27:35	Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x6ff9c5…
10-28 09:55:34	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xf38755…
10-28 09:33:35	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x4022a8…
10-28 09:03:23	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	86¢	$83	0xf2b22d…
10-28 09:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x30df65…
10-28 08:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x847aa0…
10-28 07:51:14	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	66¢	$11	0xbd94b8…
10-28 06:02:37	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	68¢	$37	0x98f1de…
10-28 05:49:41	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x976820…
10-28 05:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0xcc4c5a…
10-28 05:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x7cc263…
10-28 05:49:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x04d0cc…
10-28 05:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x132916…
10-28 05:49:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x43f5a5…
10-28 05:49:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xf3e20d…
10-28 05:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x035591…
10-28 05:49:08	Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x5b907c…
10-28 05:46:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x406fea…
10-28 05:33:31	Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0x06812c…
10-28 05:31:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xbb0dd1…
10-28 05:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xa1bfe6…
10-28 05:06:50	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0xf2bc14…
10-28 05:06:46	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0x5fe0ce…
10-28 05:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x2c3e3b…
10-28 04:37:31	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	29	37¢	$11	0x05c499…
10-28 04:34:59	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x343ad2…
10-28 04:34:58	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	34	37¢	$13	0xb80bfa…
10-28 04:07:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x388486…
10-28 04:06:14	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0x105411…
10-28 03:30:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	104	7¢	$7	0x65c13a…
10-28 03:14:44	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	26¢	$30	0x21f5c5…
10-28 02:58:32	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	26¢	$0	0x4b1da4…
10-28 02:45:57	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	120	38¢	$45	0xc12930…
10-28 02:41:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0xb19a54…
10-28 02:40:32	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	42	62¢	$26	0x0446f3…
10-28 02:39:50	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	60	38¢	$23	0x1fa4c6…
10-28 02:35:09	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	28	38¢	$11	0x4f4bb1…
10-28 02:34:59	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe26244…
10-28 02:34:51	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x09e219…
10-28 02:34:44	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0xf61bae…
10-28 02:34:30	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x824bb1…
10-28 02:33:41	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	99	62¢	$61	0x261355…
10-28 02:32:17	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	82	62¢	$51	0x9f1042…
10-28 02:28:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xd3bb6a…
10-28 02:28:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xbc3247…
10-28 02:28:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	42	67¢	$28	0x7d3c1d…
10-28 02:28:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x552be4…
10-28 02:28:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x01ab0d…
10-28 02:27:27	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	BUY	173	47¢	$81	0x0215ee…
10-28 02:27:24	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	BUY	155	48¢	$74	0x574a6f…
10-28 02:25:42	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x66154c…
10-28 02:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0xb91659…
10-28 02:08:27	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	104	0¢	$0	0xd48ae4…
10-28 02:05:12	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	38	68¢	$26	0x45a916…
10-28 02:04:12	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0x287429…
10-28 01:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xe9ea99…
10-28 01:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xdb73d5…
10-28 01:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x613657…
10-28 01:40:05	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xb4cb38…
10-28 01:32:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x7a8814…
10-28 00:51:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xb4a1f5…
10-28 00:44:09	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x12d3fa…
10-28 00:21:09	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	85	38¢	$32	0x51d9fa…
10-28 00:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xc1230d…
10-28 00:02:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0xffc59d…
10-28 00:02:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xe55d78…
10-27 23:50:41	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	37	39¢	$14	0xdf2044…
10-27 23:50:24	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0xe98633…
10-27 23:50:24	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	89	67¢	$60	0x6ea16d…
10-27 23:48:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xfd4479…
10-27 23:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0xf4761f…
10-27 23:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x9d9ef7…
10-27 23:23:59	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x6ac94c…
10-27 23:22:29	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0xa09d25…
10-27 23:05:02	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x8535a9…
10-27 23:04:21	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xb93c30…
10-27 23:04:21	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x2723bb…
10-27 22:53:15	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	206	85¢	$175	0xf72a7f…
10-27 20:20:41	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	26	70¢	$19	0x6abaaf…
10-27 20:04:45	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0x91b087…
10-27 20:03:03	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	SELL	69	61¢	$42	0xe01c0d…
10-27 19:46:39	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	305	39¢	$119	0x91f5f3…
10-27 19:45:54	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	22	39¢	$8	0x44bbee…
10-27 19:22:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x23ad0c…
10-27 19:13:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x5a89bb…
10-27 18:37:59	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x91f46c…
10-27 18:17:18	Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-27?	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xecc300…
10-27 18:17:17	Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-27?	No	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0x566db2…
10-27 18:04:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	29	34¢	$10	0x3006be…
10-27 18:02:36	UD Pinatar vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xd0331c…
10-27 18:01:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	26	34¢	$9	0x04b9af…
10-27 17:52:51	Spread: Elche CF (-3.5)	Elche CF	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xa9d4ee…
10-27 17:52:50	Spread: Elche CF (-3.5)	Elche CF	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xe4bcf2…
10-27 17:52:50	Spread: Elche CF (-3.5)	Elche CF	SELL	7	53¢	$4	0x997a4d…
10-27 17:52:50	Spread: Elche CF (-3.5)	Elche CF	SELL	27	53¢	$14	0x82f2a7…
10-27 16:40:56	UD Pinatar vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x22769e…
10-27 16:17:02	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	86¢	$37	0x61b560…
10-27 16:05:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	86¢	$37	0x26be78…
10-27 16:02:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	2¢	$3	0x17ff1e…
10-27 15:05:14	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	2¢	$2	0x62b9b2…