Realized P&L (90d)
-$3.77K
Unrealized P&L
+$743
Hit rate
62.9%
Resolved (90d)
1,142
Trades (90d)
14,300
122,996 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$279.4K
$2.79M lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.14K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 23:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 281 days
Categories
Other
61% 37% -$12,957
Politics
24% 43% +$1,782
Sports
11% 38% -$2,852
Crypto
4% 34% +$427
Tech
0% 47% -$452
Pop-Culture
0% 25% -$136
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 674 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +514 $511 100¢ $513 +$2 10-21 16:50
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +289 $288 100¢ $288 +$0 10-23 01:58
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +282 $142 58¢ $163 +$21 10-26 07:45
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +345 $161 42¢ $143 -$18 09-22 04:04
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +979 -$19 14¢ $141 +$160 10-27 19:13
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? No +121 $119 100¢ $121 +$1 10-22 07:16
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $125 27¢ $81 -$45 10-06 08:46
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? No +119 $86 66¢ $79 -$7 10-27 01:13
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +290 $115 27¢ $78 -$37 10-22 14:41
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +91 -$133 85¢ $78 +$210 10-27 22:53
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +85 -$18 86¢ $73 +$91 10-27 16:17
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes -1,066 -$72 5¢ $-52 +$19 10-20 14:23
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +47 -$44 99¢ $47 +$91 10-23 09:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes -299 -$229 15¢ $-45 +$184 10-23 18:49
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? Yes +80 $23 44¢ $35 +$12 10-16 01:31
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -32 $5 92¢ $-30 -$34 08-27 08:34
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -29 -$48 98¢ $-28 +$20 10-23 21:07
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -950 -$44 2¢ $-20 +$24 10-21 17:41
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +37 -$85 50¢ $18 +$104 10-27 19:22
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? Yes +277 $76 6¢ $18 -$58 10-27 23:22
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes +173 -$6 8¢ $14 +$20 10-20 12:54
Will T1 win Worlds 2026? Yes +80 $12 16¢ $12 +$0 10-26 20:08
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? Yes +300 $36 4¢ $12 -$24 10-23 19:59
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? Yes +80 $9 13¢ $11 +$2 10-27 04:11
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? Yes +80 $10 12¢ $9 -$1 10-23 19:55
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +27 $6 34¢ $9 +$3 10-27 18:04
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes +80 $14 8¢ $7 -$7 10-14 03:41
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -949 -$7 0¢ $-5 +$2 10-08 20:18
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -92 -$4 5¢ $-5 -$1 08-22 05:47
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Yes -240 -$14 2¢ $-4 +$10 05-04 08:14