Reasonable-Withdrawal — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$30

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

38.5%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

135

5,264 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$686

$12.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$133

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-02 10:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Other

96% 8% +$914

Sports

3% 4% -$345

Politics

0% 0% -$31

Crypto

0% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 86 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	+617	$49	8¢	$49	+$0	10-31 16:26
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	+1,444	$62	3¢	$47	-$15	10-26 05:53
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	+200	$27	14¢	$27	+$0	08-28 10:02
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+200	$3	2¢	$4	+$2	06-15 11:33
Will TSG Hoffenheim be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	+1,000	$2	0¢	$2	+$0	08-06 08:22
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	+200	$3	1¢	$2	-$1	09-12 06:29
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+300	$2	0¢	$1	-$2	06-14 12:10
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+400	$3	0¢	$1	-$3	06-14 12:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	279	$1.7K	22,662	18,374	+4,288	No	+$1,321	03-12 08:56
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	111	$801	4,959	2,823	+2,137	Yes	+$569	03-09 18:49
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	41	$436	2,215	771	+1,444	open	—	10-26 05:53
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?	16	$409	380	380	+0	No	+$351	09-03 10:32
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	62	$400	3,492	320	+3,172	No	-$247	09-20 04:06
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?	14	$393	500	500	+0	Yes	+$373	07-07 17:59
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England?	6	$350	400	400	+0	Yes	+$334	07-06 03:03
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	131	$325	10,689	2,948	+7,741	Yes	+$194	03-12 06:07
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States?	9	$307	306	306	+0	Yes	+$292	06-26 04:02
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	66	$266	6,704	2,424	+4,280	No	+$85	03-09 19:08
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	9	$234	221	221	+0	Yes	+$208	06-14 21:57
Will RB Leipzig be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	109	$190	8,810	0	+8,810	open	—	10-09 15:28
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Egypt?	12	$184	400	306	+94	No	+$161	07-07 17:52
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States?	7	$154	200	200	+0	No	+$130	06-26 03:54
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	55	$143	2,444	0	+2,444	No	-$143	09-20 14:35
will afd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	317	$132	37,100	500	+36,600	No	-$102	03-08 20:15
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?	9	$123	610	0	+610	No	-$123	06-07 10:20
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	2	$120	100	100	+0	Yes	+$68	03-11 21:10
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	17	$120	590	0	+590	Yes	-$120	06-07 11:00
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	2	$118	100	100	+0	No	+$24	06-12 19:44
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10?	3	$116	100	100	+0	No	+$83	10-10 15:38
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	4	$116	100	100	+0	open	—	10-10 09:18
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	5	$115	450	80	+370	No	-$27	06-12 20:50
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	5	$110	100	100	+0	Yes	+$87	09-06 16:45
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	28	$108	650	0	+650	Yes	-$108	04-15 19:41
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	14	$100	550	325	+225	No	+$77	06-17 21:34
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	31	$98	3,860	0	+3,860	No	-$98	09-07 03:29
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	23	$87	717	100	+617	open	—	10-31 16:26
will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	124	$79	4,310	0	+4,310	No	-$79	03-08 17:02
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$76	700	0	+700	No	-$76	06-15 07:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 10:12:03	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x7575a5…
10-31 16:26:27	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xa3cc56…
10-31 14:31:01	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	24¢	$14	0x46e394…
10-31 10:58:00	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0xd626b7…
10-30 12:24:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	24¢	$8	0xdf960a…
10-29 15:44:34	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xbfa955…
10-29 15:13:50	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x81a59b…
10-29 14:49:56	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x596116…
10-29 11:01:32	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xc4e036…
10-26 05:53:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0xfa41df…
10-25 21:07:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	7¢	$5	0x5775ab…
10-25 18:09:20	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0xed2c16…
10-25 18:07:51	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xe8ea6f…
10-25 16:28:08	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xd3879f…
10-25 16:28:06	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x2b75c6…
10-25 16:28:02	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x9fccba…
10-25 16:27:51	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x59d3ac…
10-25 16:27:41	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	90	5¢	$5	0x1ff133…
10-25 16:26:27	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x5846b8…
10-25 16:26:23	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	448	0¢	$1	0xe958e4…
10-25 16:24:53	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf9a820…
10-25 16:22:27	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	58	6¢	$3	0x734ee4…
10-25 16:20:00	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xfcd220…
10-25 16:06:57	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x9d9de8…
10-25 16:05:12	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	170	2¢	$4	0x6ecd09…
10-25 16:04:44	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0x04cf6d…
10-25 15:58:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xd02131…
10-25 15:47:03	Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x06304c…
10-25 15:41:05	Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x18ec69…
10-25 15:21:09	Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xaa3ad0…
10-25 15:20:30	Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x137b1f…
10-25 15:02:42	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$2	0x3e26de…
10-25 14:59:11	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xef5bc4…
10-25 14:59:08	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xed6b33…
10-25 14:20:53	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x97400c…
10-25 14:19:45	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xa1cc07…
10-25 14:18:54	Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x2ee6cc…
10-25 14:16:08	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xc16c3c…
10-23 13:49:41	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0xebd288…
10-23 09:54:00	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x101a87…
10-23 04:49:24	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x5d9a5e…
10-22 01:13:48	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xefc6c0…
10-21 18:59:15	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0xfb3c19…
10-21 18:58:41	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xb3c3e8…
10-21 18:54:00	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x5531c6…
10-21 18:47:03	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x6768b7…
10-21 18:02:20	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xfe8b68…
10-21 18:02:05	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xe1d658…
10-21 18:01:00	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x28d3cc…
10-21 18:00:24	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x0609b2…
10-21 17:55:36	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xb1bb8e…
10-21 17:55:36	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x08a4a9…
10-18 12:30:26	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x398b93…
10-18 03:39:24	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc693c4…
10-17 16:19:38	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x321f62…
10-17 16:18:05	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x103a35…
10-17 16:16:29	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x6e435f…
10-17 16:15:20	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8a5c42…
10-17 16:08:53	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0x2055ba…
10-17 16:08:23	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x3da522…
10-17 16:01:20	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x6a670b…
10-17 15:43:03	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x8f25ed…
10-17 15:42:50	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa6fac7…
10-17 15:41:23	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x91a7ba…
10-17 15:40:48	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x309bd1…
10-17 15:38:57	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x032a23…
10-17 15:38:18	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x99b39d…
10-17 15:38:14	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0xf0b528…
10-17 15:38:14	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	274	2¢	$4	0x881f42…
10-17 15:36:59	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x537eda…
10-17 15:36:54	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xdbadc1…
10-17 15:35:39	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xc3f6fd…
10-17 15:35:39	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	170	0¢	$1	0xae6df4…
10-17 15:35:39	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x8f8327…
10-17 15:35:39	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3c98e1…
10-17 15:35:05	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x02bc1f…
10-17 15:24:57	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x0088c9…
10-17 15:24:38	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7e8a23…
10-17 15:20:18	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x672897…
10-17 15:20:15	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x4f3148…
10-17 15:15:18	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x9b80a1…
10-17 15:14:09	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x138f4d…
10-17 15:13:50	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x50f7b9…
10-17 14:27:32	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xb408e6…
10-17 11:17:06	Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Yes	BUY	43	1¢	$0	0x46db2c…
10-17 07:59:29	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x2cda12…
10-17 07:59:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x163fae…
10-17 07:56:33	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf11f6c…
10-17 06:48:29	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x704933…
10-16 11:48:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x3f8a19…
10-16 10:33:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x82fb18…
10-16 10:03:51	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	108	20¢	$22	0xd96f18…
10-16 08:36:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x042500…
10-16 07:34:42	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xc63a53…
10-16 06:59:18	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	90	20¢	$18	0xd7db09…
10-16 06:59:07	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x748059…
10-16 06:56:51	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	1¢	$2	0xb2ddf5…
10-14 22:15:21	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x0a1fcf…
10-12 14:07:02	Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	No	BUY	105	3¢	$3	0xb0d0f1…
10-12 11:19:11	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x6c4be6…