Rotating-Statement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$666

Unrealized P&L

-$90

Hit rate

82.4%

Resolved

255

Trades

806

lifetime

Volume

$56.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$2.59K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 12:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Other

64% 81% +$389

Politics

21% 76% -$1,233

Sports

8% 90% +$79

Tech

7% 100% +$153

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$53

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+500	$420	100¢	$499	+$79	09-25 09:18
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+730	$612	54¢	$391	-$221	08-13 17:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+250	$228	94¢	$234	+$6	10-01 18:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+250	$228	92¢	$229	+$1	10-22 12:00
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+245	$226	90¢	$222	-$4	10-21 20:02
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+199	$167	92¢	$184	+$17	10-14 10:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+190	$133	82¢	$157	+$24	10-21 20:42
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	+140	$102	78¢	$108	+$6	10-23 18:17
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-100	-$96	97¢	$-97	-$1	08-08 08:56
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-100	-$93	97¢	$-97	-$4	07-16 10:11
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	+100	$72	91¢	$91	+$19	09-22 23:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+106	$85	86¢	$91	+$6	10-24 20:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+150	$102	54¢	$80	-$22	06-06 04:27
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$46	98¢	$49	+$3	10-20 17:09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+54	$46	88¢	$47	+$1	10-21 00:25
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	-10	-$10	96¢	$-10	$0	08-08 19:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	2	$1.3K	637	637	+0	No	+$7	06-27 00:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$1.2K	640	600	+40	No	+$7	03-11 09:56
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$1.1K	615	615	+0	No	-$5	04-07 11:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	9	$1.1K	740	740	+0	resolved	-$285	10-24 09:36
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	20	$1.1K	1,056	964	+91	Yes	-$397	01-31 12:16
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	8	$922	469	469	-0	Yes	+$10	02-20 14:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$898	550	550	+0	No	+$14	04-21 19:43
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	3	$739	422	422	+0	Yes	+$39	07-04 22:48
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	8	$735	478	478	+0	open	—	10-21 16:42
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total home 0pt5	2	$734	385	385	+0	Over	+$34	07-18 22:27
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	6	$714	215	517	-302	Yes	+$3	02-18 13:06
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	1	$697	850	0	+850	Yes	-$697	06-25 13:43
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	9	$612	730	0	+730	open	—	08-13 17:39
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	2	$600	400	300	+100	open	—	09-22 23:51
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	1	$592	600	0	+600	open	—	10-30 12:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$568	440	250	+190	open	—	10-21 20:42
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$550	719	0	+719	Argentina	+$169	07-07 17:07
will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	2	$547	646	0	+646	No	+$98	08-02 17:43
Portugal vs. Norway: Portugal O/U 0.5	2	$540	600	0	+600	Over	+$60	10-02 10:57
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$516	269	269	+0	Yes	+$21	03-26 14:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	3	$492	250	250	+0	open	—	10-17 18:02
will social democrats win the most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	7	$488	250	250	+0	Yes	+$9	03-23 17:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	2	$486	250	250	+0	No	+$11	06-25 11:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	2	$463	500	0	+500	No	+$37	09-14 17:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	4	$457	525	0	+525	No	+$68	04-07 19:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$454	500	0	+500	Yes	-$454	04-06 10:39
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	2	$447	294	294	+0	England	+$47	07-06 02:27
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$435	254	254	+0	No	+$38	02-25 01:10
Nothing Ever Happens: March	19	$433	355	355	+0	Nothing	+$37	03-27 19:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$428	250	250	+0	Yes	+$22	05-04 10:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:40:43	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	600	99¢	$592	0x4d5c4c…
10-25 15:44:45	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	137	19¢	$26	0x836999…
10-25 14:09:08	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x2e82b2…
10-24 20:32:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	80¢	$85	0xf9fd89…
10-24 13:57:48	Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	150	91¢	$136	0x4467d8…
10-24 09:36:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	740	55¢	$410	0x15430a…
10-23 18:17:38	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	BUY	140	73¢	$102	0x4e7224…
10-23 16:34:29	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0x9815c5…
10-23 10:35:38	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Vålerenga Fotball O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf77d61…
10-23 10:26:33	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Vålerenga Fotball O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	105	65¢	$68	0x39087d…
10-23 10:26:26	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Vålerenga Fotball O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0xd7f446…
10-23 10:24:56	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	45	90¢	$41	0x406a47…
10-23 10:24:47	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xcdbddd…
10-22 19:29:14	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x322388…
10-22 19:25:17	Lillestrøm SK vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xfb0b96…
10-22 19:25:17	Lillestrøm SK vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xe16712…
10-22 19:25:17	Lillestrøm SK vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0x84ca5d…
10-22 19:24:36	Lillestrøm SK vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x169dc1…
10-22 12:00:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	142	91¢	$130	0x7c7beb…
10-22 09:24:02	Lillestrøm SK vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	165	91¢	$150	0xe32e80…
10-22 05:54:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc9dd00…
10-22 03:48:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	88	91¢	$80	0xac8427…
10-22 02:03:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	91¢	$217	0x11906d…
10-22 02:01:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xaef30a…
10-22 01:47:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xdb0c1f…
10-21 23:14:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xc856a4…
10-21 23:08:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x73cd8e…
10-21 22:20:51	OFI vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0xcf4848…
10-21 21:44:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	225	98¢	$221	0xf7a088…
10-21 20:42:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	190	83¢	$158	0x975513…
10-21 20:02:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	245	92¢	$226	0x1fc3d6…
10-21 18:20:06	FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: FC Bayern München O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	58	81¢	$47	0x47022d…
10-21 17:43:14	Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: Como 1907 O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x911423…
10-21 16:42:23	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	250	96¢	$240	0xf0a91b…
10-21 16:42:21	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	227	96¢	$218	0x783fd7…
10-21 16:27:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x22d13f…
10-21 16:27:47	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	88¢	$12	0x27a8b0…
10-21 16:27:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xf12a3d…
10-21 16:09:53	Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: Como 1907 O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x0f341e…
10-21 13:43:15	FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: FC Bayern München O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	179	84¢	$150	0x62dee1…
10-21 07:37:41	Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xe375b2…
10-21 00:25:41	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xa1641e…
10-21 00:25:23	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xa7e8ae…
10-20 17:09:02	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x92135c…
10-20 10:18:42	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0xee9bcc…
10-20 08:48:08	SSC Napoli vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: SSC Napoli O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0x26a6a8…
10-18 20:17:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x585c9f…
10-18 20:01:23	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	81¢	$53	0xc7d137…
10-18 19:46:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	81¢	$23	0xe5522d…
10-18 19:17:06	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xe09663…
10-18 12:31:39	Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	174	86¢	$150	0xcc78d5…
10-18 12:31:23	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xb7f06a…
10-17 18:02:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	249	99¢	$247	0x2e96a6…
10-16 21:26:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x227158…
10-16 20:19:23	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	SELL	57	6¢	$3	0xa5451d…
10-14 19:43:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xc9bf53…
10-14 10:21:13	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	199	84¢	$167	0x4a5879…
10-13 20:39:42	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	No	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x59cd1b…
10-13 19:46:07	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xa1f174…
10-13 16:11:00	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x5f9987…
10-13 15:58:10	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	59¢	$118	0xebeb96…
10-13 13:25:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	70¢	$47	0x73af95…
10-13 13:24:49	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	79¢	$76	0x37c122…
10-12 14:42:42	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xb39d3d…
10-12 10:52:21	Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x9112da…
10-12 08:02:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0a4173…
10-12 07:59:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x30833e…
10-11 20:49:35	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	70	56¢	$39	0xb1c947…
10-11 20:49:01	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	65	56¢	$36	0x467c3b…
10-11 11:45:11	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x348881…
10-11 11:42:54	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	179	84¢	$150	0xf5d88f…
10-11 11:42:11	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	230	61¢	$140	0x7e8e35…
10-11 11:39:41	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x90dbe9…
10-11 11:35:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	228	91¢	$206	0xc24f72…
10-10 22:09:46	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	68	53¢	$36	0xee2874…
10-10 16:11:40	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	155	92¢	$143	0x95ccc6…
10-10 15:35:52	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xff0f16…
10-10 01:14:14	Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	275	93¢	$255	0x99b0aa…
10-09 23:47:16	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xff788a…
10-09 22:35:16	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	BUY	155	76¢	$118	0x1f7d9d…
10-09 22:11:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	No	BUY	85	87¢	$74	0xf635d1…
10-09 20:29:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	BUY	69	71¢	$49	0xe583c5…
10-09 13:29:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x742efe…
10-09 13:29:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa88565…
10-09 07:25:27	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x0f605c…
10-08 23:10:21	Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xa27fe1…
10-08 22:23:05	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xe87e70…
10-08 17:06:08	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	No	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0x6ab722…
10-08 16:35:23	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x58140b…
10-08 15:17:39	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x4ac47b…
10-08 12:07:05	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	350	98¢	$341	0x1a7f9e…
10-08 07:14:44	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x700a66…
10-07 15:32:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x15cf20…
10-06 21:05:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	389	96¢	$375	0x962a70…
10-06 20:31:53	England vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	408	98¢	$400	0x23f69b…
10-06 17:40:21	England vs. Czechia: England O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x0dfaad…
10-06 10:55:51	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xcc927b…
10-06 03:06:04	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x427c86…
10-05 23:29:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x71be3c…
10-05 15:42:58	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xefb94f…