Ambitious-Carnival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$675

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 05-21 09:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

45% 40% $-6

Politics

42% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

2% 33% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$118	70	70	+0	open	—	04-12 18:43
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	4	$109	67	67	+0	open	—	04-18 06:44
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$100	148	0	+148	open	—	04-14 16:28
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	3	$95	68	68	+0	open	—	04-12 18:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	05-11 10:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$16	24	0	+24	open	—	05-11 14:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$15	31	0	+31	open	—	04-23 13:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-21 09:11
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-21 09:11
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-21 09:11
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	3	$11	14	0	+14	open	—	05-14 11:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$11	108	108	+0	open	—	05-09 15:06
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	1	$9	22	0	+22	open	—	04-21 15:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 07:42
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	1	$8	24	0	+24	open	—	04-21 15:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	05-09 16:06
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-29 16:51
ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-14 20:57
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	1	$6	15	0	+15	open	—	04-19 20:20
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	1	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	04-19 20:21
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	1	$6	23	0	+23	open	—	04-17 12:08
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	1	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	05-11 09:52
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Under	+$5	05-10 09:25
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-22 07:05
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026?	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-29 05:49
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Under	+$5	05-09 18:01
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	1	$5	11	0	+11	Over	$-5	05-10 11:48
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Over	$-5	05-10 17:59
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Over	$-5	05-09 20:48
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Over	$-5	05-10 10:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 09:11:37	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x3e182d…
05-21 09:11:28	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x0390d4…
05-21 09:11:11	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x7a8aec…
05-14 11:00:53	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x648439…
05-14 10:00:58	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xab0d4e…
05-14 06:44:00	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x9be5d7…
05-11 14:49:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x2b64bc…
05-11 10:52:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x39b295…
05-11 09:52:03	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x7ec76d…
05-10 17:59:51	AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb980ad…
05-10 15:25:39	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xef6686…
05-10 11:48:09	Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5d80ae…
05-10 10:12:57	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Under	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x44a7f6…
05-10 09:55:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9e217b…
05-10 09:25:58	Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x2be9f5…
05-09 20:48:30	Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x953c5e…
05-09 18:26:07	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x78e9f5…
05-09 18:01:56	US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc25850…
05-09 17:47:19	Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5	Under	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x56138d…
05-09 17:41:03	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5	Under	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x95180c…
05-09 17:15:14	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xa4ec21…
05-09 16:06:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x1381f4…
05-09 15:06:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	108	0¢	$0	0xd0c185…
04-30 04:01:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x418402…
04-29 18:53:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x71aa2e…
04-29 16:51:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xcc8c7e…
04-29 05:49:32	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf39f30…
04-28 07:42:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x172dfe…
04-23 13:12:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x265a7b…
04-23 13:12:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x771c22…
04-23 09:11:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0xb94272…
04-23 09:11:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x9008d2…
04-22 07:05:08	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$3	0x844958…
04-22 06:51:10	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xeab92c…
04-21 15:42:18	Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x228050…
04-21 15:42:12	Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x1c0315…
04-21 15:37:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x7c95cc…
04-21 15:35:14	Named storm forms before hurricane season?	Yes	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0xd09f22…
04-21 15:34:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x9361b9…
04-20 08:08:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xa8470a…
04-20 08:07:08	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	240	1¢	$2	0x414555…
04-19 20:23:06	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xec7c22…
04-19 20:21:16	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xc7e3a5…
04-19 20:20:38	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xaedde1…
04-18 13:16:32	Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	79	3¢	$2	0xa9dc6c…
04-18 06:44:18	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	43	96¢	$42	0x1c2111…
04-17 12:08:54	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xad7064…
04-14 20:57:36	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc0989c…
04-14 19:25:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x4de88e…
04-14 19:22:48	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x5e27fc…
04-14 19:10:50	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x193f22…
04-14 19:02:32	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x49a087…
04-14 16:28:34	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x6e3725…
04-13 20:45:05	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xccd19f…
04-12 18:44:59	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	Yes	SELL	68	95¢	$64	0x7f6095…
04-12 18:43:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0x738c61…
04-10 07:57:43	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	Yes	BUY	38	45¢	$17	0xe6801d…
04-10 07:57:13	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	23	73¢	$17	0x9b8ac5…
04-10 07:15:09	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	Yes	BUY	30	45¢	$13	0x82c730…
04-10 07:11:43	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x54b2fc…
04-10 07:11:13	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xf914db…
04-10 07:09:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xaef8cf…