Flawed-Instruction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$487

Unrealized P&L

-$100

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

Trades

224

lifetime

Volume

$12.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$242

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-11 03:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

55% 67% +$964

Other

31% 35% -$574

Tech

14% 31% +$123

Crypto

0% 0% -$25

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-11).

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	+455	$100	20¢	$91	-$9	05-29 19:35
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+102	$25	48¢	$49	+$24	06-01 23:57
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	+476	$100	8¢	$40	-$60	05-29 19:38
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	+38	$20	90¢	$34	+$14	06-02 00:01
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+492	$30	3¢	$15	-$15	05-30 21:54
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+100	$17	9¢	$9	-$7	05-09 22:48
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+137	$30	2¢	$3	-$27	06-02 00:00
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+580	$20	0¢	$1	-$19	06-01 23:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	43	$3.7K	26,480	3,208	+23,272	No	+$548	04-14 00:18
Will King Charles say "Crown" or "Prince" during the joint meeting of Congress?	9	$1.6K	888	887	+1	Yes	+$179	04-28 21:33
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$673	1,118	699	+419	No	+$273	06-11 03:38
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$646	571	557	+15	Yes	+$260	04-12 18:57
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	22	$452	715	715	+0	No	+$152	05-29 19:27
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$405	253	253	+0	Yes	+$5	04-12 13:16
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	12	$380	233	214	+19	Yes	-$1	06-04 11:09
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	18	$347	455	462	-6	Yes	+$126	06-01 23:21
Will King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?	3	$286	181	181	+0	Yes	+$76	04-28 21:32
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	3	$279	348	272	+76	Yes	+$159	05-19 17:22
Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	2	$200	639	0	+639	No	-$200	05-03 10:44
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$171	272	272	+0	No	-$29	05-12 19:10
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$157	679	679	+0	No	-$103	05-19 17:37
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	2	$152	126	126	+0	Yes	+$52	05-17 19:31
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?	2	$133	83	83	+0	Yes	+$33	05-12 19:03
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$129	83	83	+0	Yes	+$29	05-19 00:45
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	4	$120	529	0	+529	No	-$120	06-11 03:39
Will Trump say "Normandy" during King Charles visit?	2	$119	90	90	+0	Yes	+$59	04-29 01:37
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	2	$112	91	91	+0	No	+$12	05-17 19:32
Will King Charles say "Freedom" 5+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?	2	$103	154	154	+0	No	-$97	04-28 19:42
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$102	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 23:58
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	1	$100	476	0	+476	open	—	05-29 19:38
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$100	967	0	+967	No	-$100	05-09 23:58
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	1	$100	455	0	+455	open	—	05-29 19:35
Will Bernie Sanders say "Moratorium" in Michigan?	1	$100	188	0	+188	No	-$100	05-03 10:44
Will Trump say "Trump Kennedy Center" or "Trump-Kennedy Center" in May?	2	$100	124	0	+124	No	-$39	05-03 10:56
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	2	$77	61	61	+0	Yes	+$17	06-11 03:40
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$74	216	0	+216	Yes	+$142	05-29 20:07
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$72	51	51	+0	Yes	+$12	05-17 19:33
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	6	$62	50	50	+0	Yes	+$24	05-17 19:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 03:40:01	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	61	76¢	$47	0xb4df19…
06-11 03:39:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	Yes	BUY	193	16¢	$30	0x1a9493…
06-11 03:38:27	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	140	67¢	$94	0x716581…
06-11 03:37:43	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0x9b3757…
06-11 03:37:33	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0x3afd8d…
06-11 03:27:03	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	559	68¢	$380	0x97376f…
06-04 11:09:42	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	48	87¢	$42	0xffd9a2…
06-04 04:08:40	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x3a4510…
06-03 23:27:03	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x8a997b…
06-02 18:24:48	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0x6c0707…
06-02 18:02:14	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	25	84¢	$21	0xcdc54d…
06-02 16:40:39	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0xede6dd…
06-02 15:06:32	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x451a67…
06-02 00:01:05	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xfd705c…
06-02 00:00:23	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	137	22¢	$30	0xaac31f…
06-01 23:58:46	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0xd2d0d2…
06-01 23:57:15	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	24¢	$25	0xe8bc3d…
06-01 23:56:54	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	580	3¢	$20	0xdc7a0d…
06-01 23:42:07	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x37ce40…
06-01 23:40:33	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0x539796…
06-01 23:40:31	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	33	81¢	$27	0x88935e…
06-01 23:37:45	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x88dfe9…
06-01 23:31:25	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0x8b634a…
06-01 23:25:31	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x1f538c…
06-01 23:21:37	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	83	46¢	$38	0xcdd23b…
05-31 04:30:27	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	25	60¢	$15	0xda595e…
05-31 03:42:09	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	83	60¢	$50	0xd67e21…
05-31 02:06:29	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x6aa329…
05-31 00:32:03	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0xf7ddb2…
05-30 23:21:35	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x13727f…
05-30 22:37:24	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	51	48¢	$24	0x9a511d…
05-30 22:15:40	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7dedb3…
05-30 22:15:26	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe235c6…
05-30 22:14:14	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x370099…
05-30 22:14:04	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xe79698…
05-30 22:12:05	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x393385…
05-30 22:08:17	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	Yes	BUY	207	10¢	$20	0x2f1547…
05-30 22:05:06	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x68d066…
05-30 22:00:42	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x366393…
05-30 21:58:15	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x810b91…
05-30 21:54:59	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	492	6¢	$30	0x0d2cf8…
05-30 06:23:01	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	78	50¢	$39	0x85c06e…
05-30 06:21:13	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	48	50¢	$24	0x9cf3b7…
05-30 05:58:40	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0x8fbe03…
05-30 05:40:12	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	45	50¢	$23	0x106b37…
05-29 20:07:08	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x03a21b…
05-29 20:06:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	112	22¢	$24	0x3076a5…
05-29 20:01:08	Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x72bf7f…
05-29 19:56:23	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0x12f72c…
05-29 19:50:57	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x5c45a2…
05-29 19:44:22	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xdff0e7…
05-29 19:39:38	Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	18¢	$50	0x5d40c2…
05-29 19:38:25	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0x1850de…
05-29 19:36:36	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	432	23¢	$100	0xa35724…
05-29 19:35:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0xa5dd26…
05-29 19:29:29	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0x3b83aa…
05-29 19:28:19	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	349	29¢	$100	0xac63bc…
05-29 19:27:27	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	163	76¢	$124	0xb12a86…
05-19 17:41:58	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x02cac3…
05-19 17:37:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,048	1¢	$30	0x36407e…
05-19 17:37:11	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	1¢	$1	0x029f80…
05-19 17:37:03	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	679	4¢	$27	0x634165…
05-19 17:34:18	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	9¢	$10	0xdcad44…
05-19 17:25:51	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0x5f877d…
05-19 17:25:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	467	6¢	$30	0xe5287c…
05-19 17:24:07	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xdba604…
05-19 17:22:49	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0x8adc7b…
05-19 17:20:06	Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x5e3f1a…
05-19 17:17:51	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	547	18¢	$100	0xbccd29…
05-19 17:17:20	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x576d09…
05-19 17:16:22	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0x9c4c17…
05-19 17:15:45	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xc1d46c…
05-19 17:14:26	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x5bdb8c…
05-19 01:20:52	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	2¢	$20	0x5d4eb1…
05-19 00:45:19	Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0xa35db8…
05-17 19:34:33	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	44	65¢	$29	0x38c0cc…
05-17 19:34:09	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x2546b1…
05-17 19:33:28	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	82¢	$42	0xd943e9…
05-17 19:32:08	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	No	SELL	91	68¢	$62	0x3cf151…
05-17 19:31:49	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	126	81¢	$102	0x6d12b9…
05-17 19:31:40	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	272	81¢	$219	0xff409d…
05-12 19:12:08	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x768a3b…
05-12 19:10:28	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	272	26¢	$71	0x7a81b6…
05-12 19:03:19	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?	Yes	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0xeb1aac…
05-10 23:00:42	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x86f3b8…
05-10 08:08:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	27	32¢	$9	0x1824e0…
05-10 04:33:58	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	36	32¢	$12	0x216ac4…
05-10 03:59:39	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x139fba…
05-10 01:21:30	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0xb0c59f…
05-10 00:43:49	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x7606e6…
05-10 00:43:23	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x88c304…
05-10 00:42:01	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0x631f9c…
05-10 00:41:50	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	11	29¢	$3	0xbf2f1a…
05-10 00:41:17	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	28	29¢	$8	0x9205c0…
05-10 00:41:08	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	28	29¢	$8	0x3becef…
05-10 00:40:52	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x74c89e…
05-10 00:40:33	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x7615dd…
05-10 00:24:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0xb6465b…
05-10 00:20:22	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x319eea…
05-10 00:15:49	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	77	59¢	$46	0x093a0a…