Deadly-Halibut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$797

Unrealized P&L

+$164

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved

190

Trades

949

lifetime

Volume

$52.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$1.88K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-30 09:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Politics

76% 85% -$134

Other

24% 100% +$931

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No		+330	$300	99¢	$327	+$27	09-03 09:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes		+314	$235	96¢	$303	+$68	09-16 15:54
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No		+290	$245	93¢	$270	+$25	10-16 14:15
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes		+184	$110	96¢	$176	+$66	10-01 16:00
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No		+168	$152	99¢	$166	+$14	10-01 15:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes		+295	$207	51¢	$150	-$56	10-16 04:00
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No		+118	$100	99¢	$117	+$17	10-22 20:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes		+112	$80	72¢	$81	+$1	10-28 20:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes		+114	$80	64¢	$73	-$7	10-16 04:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes		+47	$40	100¢	$47	+$7	10-22 20:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes		+89	$50	48¢	$43	-$7	10-28 20:15
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes		+43	$31	96¢	$41	+$10	10-26 06:46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes		+31	$30	91¢	$29	-$1	10-29 15:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes		+33	$30	84¢	$28	-$2	10-29 15:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes		+56	$24	36¢	$20	-$4	10-13 07:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	—	+11	$10	93¢	$10	$0	10-29 15:36
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No		+0	-$8	94¢	$0	+$8	07-17 07:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	31	$2.3K	1,987	1,987	+0	Yes	-$447	09-03 09:41
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	11	$1.8K	1,413	990	+424	No	+$261	03-21 08:26
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$1.7K	1,398	453	+946	No	+$41	04-24 16:35
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	11	$1.0K	1,202	908	+295	Yes	-$466	04-16 06:29
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	7	$952	606	606	+0	open	—	07-13 12:06
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	9	$943	1,075	0	+1,075	Yes	-$943	09-04 18:50
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$915	876	186	+690	No	-$7	05-24 05:24
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	8	$874	927	0	+927	No	+$53	04-20 05:07
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	9	$867	443	443	+0	No	+$8	07-26 19:31
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	9	$845	627	274	+353	No	+$46	09-18 08:30
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	19	$831	796	293	+503	No	+$2	08-16 09:32
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	6	$822	588	330	+257	No	+$30	07-24 19:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$813	424	424	+0	No	+$13	04-18 14:47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$655	863	0	+863	No	+$208	06-17 11:02
israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	11	$655	408	408	+0	No	+$53	09-03 09:41
will netanyahu be pardoned by february 28	9	$655	532	210	+322	No	+$23	02-28 18:26
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	10	$654	484	212	+272	No	+$32	09-26 12:29
israel military action against greater beirut by july 14 20260708204650548	6	$616	312	312	+0	No	+$4	07-24 06:07
israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	10	$594	340	340	+0	No	+$25	07-24 06:07
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?	12	$586	721	0	+721	No	+$135	04-23 17:32
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?	7	$583	528	100	+428	open	—	10-07 05:39
will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	5	$570	651	0	+651	No	+$81	03-21 08:28
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	8	$550	578	0	+578	No	+$28	08-16 09:33
will a new country join the abraham accords by july 31 20260626214759163	3	$525	556	0	+556	No	+$31	07-01 17:11
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	7	$517	259	307	-48	No	+$8	06-14 06:18
israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	9	$510	309	309	+0	No	+$32	08-01 15:34
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	10	$510	583	0	+583	No	+$73	06-08 05:32
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	7	$500	331	231	+100	No	+$10	07-15 17:10
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	3	$496	337	337	+0	No	-$104	01-14 06:09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	5	$487	264	264	+0	No	+$37	06-11 05:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:23:00	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	75¢	$20	0xf26c5f…
10-29 15:37:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x7b0706…
10-29 15:36:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xf2f004…
10-29 15:36:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xca4876…
10-29 15:35:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xe3f79e…
10-29 15:35:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xd50ad9…
10-29 15:34:20	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x0b89e1…
10-29 15:30:58	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0xb6dbc8…
10-29 15:29:47	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xf6d5bf…
10-29 15:29:32	Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xe843e9…
10-28 20:15:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x68c515…
10-28 20:15:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x2eb8ef…
10-28 20:15:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0xf218d6…
10-26 06:46:32	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0x6062a7…
10-26 06:46:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xf17304…
10-26 06:44:41	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x879a89…
10-26 06:44:18	Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb59380…
10-26 06:43:18	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbb8622…
10-26 06:41:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0xf0d156…
10-25 19:19:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x774fea…
10-25 19:18:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x4264ae…
10-23 08:28:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0xfaeef7…
10-23 08:27:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8b668e…
10-23 08:26:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x22925b…
10-23 08:26:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x013462…
10-22 20:28:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x21f368…
10-22 20:27:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8e7a2a…
10-22 20:26:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x73ed89…
10-22 20:25:54	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x67c7bd…
10-20 17:49:11	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe9725b…
10-20 17:48:11	Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xff35ea…
10-20 17:47:44	Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x74bf9c…
10-20 17:46:51	Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0x831926…
10-19 07:55:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xb317d7…
10-19 07:55:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x87d72a…
10-19 07:54:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x46f6bc…
10-19 07:54:05	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x7a9e6a…
10-16 14:15:01	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xc5b800…
10-16 04:02:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x34b8f2…
10-16 04:02:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x6799b7…
10-16 04:02:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x6923b0…
10-16 04:02:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe5e895…
10-16 04:00:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xd2ebcf…
10-16 04:00:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x278089…
10-16 03:59:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x966aab…
10-16 03:59:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xc94565…
10-13 07:36:58	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xe597d6…
10-13 07:36:13	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x9a6cc5…
10-13 07:34:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x4e6ced…
10-13 07:34:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xd290fa…
10-13 07:33:58	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xe5d72d…
10-13 07:33:49	Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x783ff0…
10-11 16:39:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0xcaabfd…
10-11 16:39:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x01f31f…
10-11 16:37:51	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x23d2c5…
10-11 16:35:36	Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	103	50¢	$52	0x5fa265…
10-11 16:30:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x93927b…
10-11 16:28:06	Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xbf28f0…
10-11 16:25:34	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x952192…
10-11 16:24:58	Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x5273fd…
10-10 07:16:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x3a442a…
10-10 07:15:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x0fbcda…
10-10 07:15:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x1de41e…
10-09 06:39:06	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x4740d1…
10-09 06:38:34	Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xb7b1e0…
10-09 06:35:43	Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x4cd74e…
10-09 06:35:09	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xae5315…
10-09 06:33:28	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xedb28e…
10-09 06:31:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xd29fd5…
10-09 06:30:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x5c21d8…
10-07 05:42:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xa2b40e…
10-07 05:42:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0xd8167c…
10-07 05:40:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x335b5a…
10-07 05:40:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xee7a04…
10-07 05:40:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0xf56007…
10-07 05:39:14	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x066b7a…
10-07 05:38:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	79	63¢	$49	0x6fc8a3…
10-07 05:35:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xe513dc…
10-07 05:35:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd651b2…
10-07 05:34:42	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x74a001…
10-07 05:34:06	Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	68	41¢	$28	0x3dd360…
10-07 05:32:12	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xe33263…
10-07 05:31:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xc66020…
10-07 05:31:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xfc9690…
10-07 05:28:59	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x86f498…
10-07 05:27:29	Will RZP-Zehut win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x74f5ca…
10-05 07:09:10	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xeecbca…
10-03 07:51:11	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x518fc6…
10-02 18:27:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xd6508c…
10-02 18:27:02	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xcaacdd…
10-02 18:26:47	Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x9732ec…
10-02 17:55:41	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xa9a4bb…
10-02 17:55:09	Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x5cfd10…
10-02 17:55:00	Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x007087…
10-02 12:36:57	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x475c11…
10-02 12:35:38	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9f51d4…
10-02 07:33:30	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xad4c63…
10-02 07:33:05	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x65763e…
10-02 07:31:42	Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x883f02…
10-02 07:30:35	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xda879f…