Elliptical-Hepatitis — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

—

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

41 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$7.76K lifetime

Avg / trade

$189

Open exposure

$181

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-04 08:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$65

Crypto

29% 100% +$18

Politics

22% 88% -$163

Tech

3% 100% +$8

Sports

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+81	$77	97¢	$78	+$1	10-13 05:15
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+72	$70	99¢	$71	+$1	11-04 08:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+33	$31	97¢	$32	+$1	11-04 08:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	2	$722	473	255	+218	No	+$4	01-26 05:47
will bitcoin reach 102k december 29 january 4	1	$478	479	0	+479	No	+$1	01-03 04:31
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$423	230	200	+30	No	+$3	06-07 10:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$350	356	0	+356	Yes	+$6	04-09 08:32
will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	1	$320	324	0	+324	No	+$4	02-09 10:02
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$287	290	0	+290	No	+$3	03-20 05:39
will lighter reach 5pt50 in january	1	$270	271	0	+271	No	+$1	01-15 08:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$267	275	0	+275	No	+$8	03-05 03:18
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$265	269	0	+269	Yes	+$4	03-05 03:20
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$260	263	0	+263	Yes	+$3	01-26 05:50
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?	1	$258	261	0	+261	No	+$3	02-09 10:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$241	244	0	+244	No	+$3	05-27 06:15
elon musk 48h tweets january 1 january 3 120 129	1	$240	241	0	+241	No	+$1	01-03 04:30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	1	$222	225	0	+225	No	+$3	04-21 06:42
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$220	229	0	+229	Yes	+$9	05-07 10:34
will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	1	$220	224	0	+224	No	+$4	03-05 03:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$220	224	0	+224	No	+$4	06-07 11:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$215	217	0	+217	No	+$2	06-07 11:00
Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	1	$211	212	0	+212	No	+$1	04-09 08:03
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase april 7 13	1	$210	214	0	+214	Yes	+$4	04-09 08:35
lol blg tt 2026 07 23	3	$203	112	112	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$3	07-23 14:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$190	198	0	+198	Yes	-$190	05-07 10:30
donald trump of truth social posts february 6 february 13 200plus	1	$165	167	0	+167	No	+$2	02-09 10:01
lol t1 tl2 2026 06 28	1	$160	168	0	+168	T1	+$8	06-26 15:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	1	$160	166	0	+166	Yes	+$6	06-07 11:02
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$156	157	0	+157	No	+$1	09-12 13:53
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	1	$150	152	0	+152	No	+$2	05-07 10:32
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	1	$110	111	0	+111	No	+$1	08-02 06:16
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	1	$100	103	0	+103	No	+$3	07-05 05:34
us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	07-23 14:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 08:23:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x8dd58f…
11-04 08:22:57	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0x90f234…
10-13 05:15:17	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	81	96¢	$77	0xdf71e9…
10-13 05:14:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	99	81¢	$80	0x079cf0…
09-12 13:53:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	157	99¢	$156	0xc17f28…
08-02 06:16:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x9512af…
08-02 06:16:18	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xe70e3f…
07-23 14:57:52	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x20047c…
07-23 14:56:09	lol blg tt 2026 07 23	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	58	92¢	$53	0x91c967…
07-23 14:56:07	lol blg tt 2026 07 23	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0xbb6d81…
07-23 05:51:36	lol blg tt 2026 07 23	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x0c999e…
07-05 05:35:02	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xc9fb2f…
07-05 05:34:40	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x69fcec…
06-26 15:52:59	lol t1 tl2 2026 06 28	T1	BUY	168	95¢	$160	0xaf8ecd…
06-07 11:02:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	BUY	166	97¢	$160	0x535b5a…
06-07 11:00:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	217	99¢	$215	0xd5e149…
06-07 11:00:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	224	98¢	$220	0x7c747e…
06-07 10:58:13	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x3d2784…
05-27 06:15:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	244	99¢	$241	0x3ccae7…
05-07 10:34:21	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	229	96¢	$220	0xac4c2d…
05-07 10:32:27	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x5beb44…
05-07 10:30:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	198	96¢	$190	0x10e56c…
05-07 10:28:33	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	230	98¢	$225	0x3cc23d…
04-21 06:42:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	225	99¢	$222	0x03d888…
04-09 08:35:31	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase april 7 13	Yes	BUY	214	98¢	$210	0xd36314…
04-09 08:32:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	356	98¢	$350	0x0acf17…
04-09 08:03:23	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	212	100¢	$211	0xc9cb59…
03-20 05:39:55	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	290	99¢	$287	0x6a11b2…
03-05 03:20:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	269	99¢	$265	0xff1415…
03-05 03:19:21	will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	No	BUY	224	98¢	$220	0xfd609a…
03-05 03:18:45	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	275	97¢	$267	0xab2ab1…
02-09 10:02:35	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	BUY	324	99¢	$320	0xaaa5ae…
02-09 10:01:51	donald trump of truth social posts february 6 february 13 200plus	No	BUY	167	99¢	$165	0xffdce5…
02-09 10:00:41	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?	No	BUY	261	99¢	$258	0x3b9c70…
01-26 05:50:20	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	263	99¢	$260	0xa8f4c4…
01-26 05:47:26	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	SELL	255	100¢	$254	0xc4ebae…
01-15 08:19:34	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	BUY	473	99¢	$468	0xaff625…
01-15 08:19:04	will lighter reach 5pt50 in january	No	BUY	271	99¢	$270	0xf6faa7…
01-03 04:31:53	will bitcoin reach 102k december 29 january 4	No	BUY	479	100¢	$478	0xdbafff…
01-03 04:30:29	elon musk 48h tweets january 1 january 3 120 129	No	BUY	241	99¢	$240	0xd2b452…
01-03 04:26:01	will any game win 2 awards at the steam awards	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x26232b…