Thoughtful-Greenhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$390

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

47.4%

Resolved

215

Trades

998

lifetime

Volume

$1.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$39

11 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 07-13 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 54% -$400

Sports

13% 33% +$1

Other

4% 100% +$15

Politics

3% — —

Tech

0% 0% -$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+15	$6	80¢	$12	+$6	06-22 21:53
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+13	$6	84¢	$11	+$5	06-18 21:36
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+15	$4	53¢	$8	+$4	06-16 17:55
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+13	$6	12¢	$2	-$4	07-13 00:17
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+7	$3	18¢	$1	-$1	06-24 06:55
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+7	$4	18¢	$1	-$2	06-16 17:55
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+8	$3	16¢	$1	-$2	06-16 12:51
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+7	$4	15¢	$1	-$3	06-15 19:46
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+15	$1	6¢	$1	$0	06-30 00:37
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	+6	$3	6¢	$0	-$3	06-17 18:45
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+7	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	06-16 12:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	7	$196	100	400	-300	Down	-$6	05-22 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$100	100	200	-100	Up	-$2	05-23 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	31	$56	418	200	+218	Up	-$48	05-19 07:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	2	$50	0	100	-100	Up	-$1	05-17 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	2	$47	0	100	-100	Up	-$3	05-17 07:25
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$33	56	27	+29	No	+$2	06-28 02:58
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$31	42	26	+16	Yes	+$6	06-28 02:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	33	$25	500	985	-485	Up	+$15	05-15 14:03
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	20	$25	355	120	+235	No	-$12	06-28 20:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$22	30	0	+30	Yes	+$8	06-23 17:27
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$19	30	0	+30	No	+$11	06-26 04:06
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$15	42	0	+42	Yes	+$27	06-29 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	2	$15	500	500	+0	Down	+$5	05-16 04:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	3	$15	1,500	0	+1,500	Down	-$15	05-16 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$15	500	500	+0	Up	+$5	05-16 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$15	500	500	+0	Down	+$5	05-15 13:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$11	18	0	+18	Yes	+$7	06-30 01:20
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$9	20	0	+20	open	—	06-18 21:36
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	5	$9	131	0	+131	No	-$9	06-30 01:18
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$9	13	13	+0	open	—	06-30 04:32
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$8	64	0	+64	No	-$8	06-21 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	20	$8	356	200	+156	Up	+$0	05-18 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7PM ET	4	$7	100	110	-10	Up	+$0	05-01 00:00
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$7	51	0	+51	No	-$7	06-20 19:28
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$7	13	6	+7	open	—	06-24 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9PM ET	4	$6	100	10	+90	Up	-$1	05-01 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	41	$6	211	200	+11	Up	+$2	05-20 10:09
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	2	$6	175	0	+175	Yes	-$6	06-16 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	22	$6	200	200	+0	Down	+$2	05-18 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	4	$6	200	200	+0	Down	+$2	05-18 11:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 00:17:55	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xd4fcf2…
06-30 04:32:11	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0xd9cf36…
06-30 01:22:19	Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xd70c31…
06-30 01:20:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x8a0745…
06-30 01:18:43	Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4f6adc…
06-30 01:18:34	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0xe8b807…
06-30 00:37:13	Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x3a343d…
06-30 00:36:32	Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0xc8c0e1…
06-29 00:24:22	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x0e9854…
06-29 00:23:41	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x22507b…
06-28 20:55:53	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0x11c8d2…
06-28 20:21:34	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x03f45c…
06-28 20:21:32	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8f3ceb…
06-28 20:16:32	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xfa4026…
06-28 20:16:31	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xec9c0a…
06-28 20:11:31	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xe5c039…
06-28 20:11:29	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x57d3b4…
06-28 20:06:23	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xde7d27…
06-28 20:06:22	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x89ed23…
06-28 20:01:22	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xf0c853…
06-28 20:01:22	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb75372…
06-28 19:55:59	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xddaa77…
06-28 19:55:59	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x6d3a2e…
06-28 19:51:28	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	44	7¢	$3	0x214ee6…
06-28 19:50:58	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0xabbe27…
06-28 18:46:05	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0xfa5df3…
06-28 18:22:58	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x334131…
06-28 18:17:58	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x65f24f…
06-28 17:59:22	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xde4c80…
06-28 17:54:14	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3b3f57…
06-28 17:12:40	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x461a1e…
06-28 02:58:01	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x62fa01…
06-28 02:58:01	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0x37fc0a…
06-28 02:42:56	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0x863639…
06-28 02:42:55	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x3ea891…
06-28 02:41:37	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0xb9fbb8…
06-28 02:41:37	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x58f397…
06-28 02:37:41	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	41¢	$5	0x6da3f9…
06-28 02:37:41	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x519dbd…
06-28 02:32:37	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	41¢	$7	0x7d1843…
06-28 02:31:29	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x2c39bb…
06-28 02:21:28	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x4505d6…
06-28 01:29:14	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x650d9b…
06-28 01:15:41	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x5b30a9…
06-28 01:15:17	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xeb0157…
06-26 04:06:55	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x612771…
06-24 22:58:41	Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xf6c7a7…
06-24 18:52:59	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x03b475…
06-24 06:55:17	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x1f09f2…
06-23 22:26:32	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x005b26…
06-23 21:04:49	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0xd5ded7…
06-23 17:27:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0xfd010c…
06-23 17:27:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x11c360…
06-23 00:54:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x1a4185…
06-22 21:53:35	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x32427b…
06-22 13:44:58	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xd707f2…
06-21 22:00:01	Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xc82011…
06-20 19:28:41	Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	51	14¢	$7	0xb64587…
06-20 19:28:40	Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	9¢	$5	0xf7e96e…
06-20 19:28:40	Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	51	11¢	$6	0xb5928c…
06-18 21:59:34	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xe59f2f…
06-18 21:36:32	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x418605…
06-18 21:31:20	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x13fc70…
06-17 18:46:02	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x009672…
06-17 18:45:13	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x4aad4d…
06-16 18:44:32	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	BUY	139	3¢	$5	0xed928d…
06-16 18:43:22	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x07331d…
06-16 17:55:46	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x5ae2a9…
06-16 17:55:35	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6a4b78…
06-16 16:20:55	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xf87c39…
06-16 16:20:46	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x4f622a…
06-16 12:51:10	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x8d3066…
06-16 12:50:51	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x57a7f8…
06-16 12:02:37	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x8a3277…
06-16 12:02:22	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xf5972e…
06-15 19:46:48	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x81c9cb…
06-15 19:31:07	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	33¢	$2	0xf9807d…
05-28 18:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa470e8…
05-28 18:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xf775b5…
05-28 18:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xac88e9…
05-28 18:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x72cd5b…
05-28 18:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x2f2396…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf3d3ef…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0xa6aa46…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xa4ec6f…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8c583c…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x770f55…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6c8683…
05-28 18:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x11a107…
05-28 18:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xaf675f…
05-28 18:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd460d4…
05-26 16:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	55	1¢	$1	0x8abfc3…
05-26 16:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0x7e3991…
05-26 13:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcea5c6…
05-26 13:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcfe9e4…
05-26 12:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x455538…
05-24 17:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0xf2afda…
05-24 17:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6efe3e…
05-24 17:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x5f4853…
05-24 17:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x55a352…