Overdue-Sideboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.94K

Hit rate

87.3%

Resolved

278

Trades

2,720

lifetime

Volume

$223.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

$7.66K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 22:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

96% 75% +$7,368

Politics

4% 75% +$156

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 0% -$500

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+3,202	$2,652	86¢	$2.7K	+$86	10-27 23:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+900	$859	99¢	$894	+$35	10-22 16:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	+900	$804	92¢	$824	+$20	10-21 21:53
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+700	$630	90¢	$634	+$4	10-22 18:16
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	+549	$500	99¢	$544	+$44	10-05 16:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	+1,400	$1,305	35¢	$491	-$814	08-09 09:28
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	+400	$389	97¢	$389	+$0	10-22 10:53
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	+349	$300	97¢	$339	+$39	10-05 16:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+2,603	$1,460	12¢	$299	-$1,161	07-19 05:40
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	+300	$290	97¢	$291	+$2	10-25 21:54
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+400	$184	43¢	$173	-$11	10-22 15:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	+1,400	$1,220	3¢	$42	-$1,178	08-09 09:28
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-1	-$2	98¢	$-1	+$0	10-23 14:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	84	$20.0K	11,486	10,827	+659	No	+$1,119	07-01 15:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	69	$11.4K	5,465	6,893	-1,428	No	+$386	05-24 15:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	34	$11.4K	6,215	6,215	+0	No	+$918	10-03 17:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	31	$7.8K	5,728	3,575	+2,153	No	+$68	06-28 12:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	29	$6.9K	3,596	3,556	+41	No	+$249	05-04 19:12
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	11	$4.5K	2,308	2,308	+0	No	+$69	06-16 12:57
will fewer than 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	56	$4.5K	2,196	2,488	-292	No	+$117	04-13 00:13
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?	10	$3.8K	3,560	700	+2,860	Yes	+$223	05-13 14:03
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	40	$3.7K	2,633	2,633	+0	Yes	-$316	05-09 00:16
1k container ship transits of suez canal in q1 2026	31	$3.6K	1,731	1,959	-229	No	+$20	04-29 16:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$27	06-01 15:00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.4% before 2027?	27	$3.5K	3,288	950	+2,338	Yes	+$360	03-27 15:30
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	30	$3.5K	1,578	2,078	-500	No	+$126	05-07 19:06
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	36	$3.4K	1,774	1,774	+0	No	+$65	05-11 15:09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	12	$3.2K	3,520	318	+3,202	open	—	10-27 23:36
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	24	$3.0K	1,808	1,683	+125	No	-$49	05-07 15:29
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?	44	$2.8K	3,682	0	+3,682	Yes	+$834	06-10 13:28
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	10	$2.6K	1,349	1,349	+0	No	+$8	05-05 20:24
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	10	$2.3K	1,220	1,220	+0	No	+$29	06-01 16:14
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	28	$2.1K	1,126	1,126	+0	No	+$110	06-26 08:09
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt3 by march 31	9	$2.1K	1,463	731	+731	Yes	+$61	01-21 18:36
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	13	$2.1K	2,113	19	+2,094	Yes	+$75	08-12 12:05
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	22	$2.0K	863	1,542	-679	No	-$144	04-28 17:28
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	6	$1.9K	1,698	698	+1,000	Yes	+$317	02-01 12:21
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	8	$1.9K	1,943	0	+1,943	No	+$34	10-23 00:51
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	36	$1.9K	1,437	1,417	+20	Yes	-$713	05-05 23:01
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	17	$1.8K	1,835	219	+1,616	No	+$238	04-14 15:30
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	27	$1.8K	1,509	1,178	+331	open	—	10-27 22:15
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	26	$1.7K	2,029	565	+1,464	Yes	+$278	03-26 19:58
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	19	$1.7K	455	1,231	-776	No	+$28	04-28 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:36:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe4100a…
10-27 22:15:29	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0x9e1b0b…
10-27 22:15:26	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	409	98¢	$401	0xa85125…
10-27 22:10:08	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfb58a0…
10-27 21:45:27	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$44	0xcab3cc…
10-27 21:43:47	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x6a4391…
10-27 20:31:54	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xd5d7ec…
10-27 19:41:00	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	108	92¢	$100	0xc9f45d…
10-27 19:25:03	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$181	0xbaca75…
10-27 19:21:20	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0x97d74c…
10-27 19:19:32	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	120	85¢	$102	0x1c13a7…
10-27 17:31:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0xa2e67a…
10-27 16:59:26	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	90	90¢	$81	0xf46109…
10-27 15:44:00	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0xddc1e6…
10-27 15:03:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	118	86¢	$101	0x2cb8ba…
10-27 14:46:45	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	300	96¢	$289	0xd39520…
10-27 14:43:39	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	140	71¢	$99	0xdd57f4…
10-27 14:43:38	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xd3dd49…
10-27 13:01:48	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	64	19¢	$12	0x258b43…
10-27 12:58:14	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x4aa2ec…
10-27 12:58:02	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	334	90¢	$300	0x823afc…
10-27 12:57:50	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	433	69¢	$300	0xcc621c…
10-27 12:32:33	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x9e2a32…
10-27 12:32:33	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x4efdc8…
10-27 09:03:18	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x88526f…
10-27 08:56:12	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0xfcabf3…
10-27 06:59:57	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x11fa35…
10-26 18:04:26	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0x649d0c…
10-26 17:57:03	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	64	44¢	$28	0x8d88c8…
10-26 17:36:51	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xe66048…
10-26 17:19:11	Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	450	96¢	$432	0x95189d…
10-26 17:18:12	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xe3fdd9…
10-26 17:18:03	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x54bca9…
10-26 17:11:20	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xc485f1…
10-26 17:10:39	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x6cd65f…
10-26 17:01:32	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xa75c80…
10-26 17:00:42	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	138	58¢	$80	0x32b50b…
10-26 16:54:06	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	27	58¢	$16	0x27ffbf…
10-26 16:52:56	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	81	37¢	$30	0xf0c82a…
10-25 21:54:50	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$290	0x82a1e9…
10-25 11:16:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xb28c72…
10-25 05:03:30	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	66	66¢	$43	0xcc8314…
10-25 05:03:30	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0x55895d…
10-24 19:59:35	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	68	63¢	$43	0xaae30b…
10-24 19:58:05	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x05e5ee…
10-24 19:49:00	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x877d00…
10-24 19:48:59	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	60	55¢	$33	0xc7826b…
10-24 19:48:59	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	96	60¢	$58	0x9bf12f…
10-24 18:30:57	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x01770c…
10-24 18:29:30	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	55¢	$27	0x23f2b3…
10-24 18:29:26	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x41a672…
10-24 18:29:24	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x2aa8c1…
10-24 17:36:50	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x4f0ef3…
10-24 17:15:41	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	32	49¢	$16	0xa7dab7…
10-24 17:15:41	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	37	49¢	$18	0x8c88c9…
10-24 09:45:08	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0xf976ee…
10-24 00:31:23	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x38ea6e…
10-24 00:30:09	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0x730ce1…
10-24 00:30:09	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x3eab6e…
10-23 18:51:50	Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in October?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x311a54…
10-23 18:27:57	Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$2.70 in October?	No	BUY	95	97¢	$93	0xfd31a2…
10-23 14:35:42	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	507	99¢	$500	0x621b31…
10-23 14:35:14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	701	98¢	$685	0x2c05ec…
10-23 14:32:50	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	513	98¢	$500	0x6427a5…
10-23 10:44:30	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	66	56¢	$37	0xa758d6…
10-23 06:30:38	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	53	60¢	$32	0x89ce23…
10-23 05:52:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$63	0xd03660…
10-23 00:51:21	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x055e5a…
10-22 23:44:59	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x331136…
10-22 22:48:32	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0xa438fb…
10-22 18:42:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Yes	SELL	546	11¢	$60	0x219311…
10-22 18:25:45	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8d832d…
10-22 18:24:30	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0xa0779c…
10-22 18:24:21	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0xfce9c3…
10-22 18:24:02	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	708	99¢	$700	0x219584…
10-22 18:16:24	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	700	90¢	$630	0x4c5141…
10-22 18:12:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Yes	SELL	254	11¢	$28	0x72f8fd…
10-22 17:44:45	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	162	92¢	$150	0x00266c…
10-22 16:41:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	212	98¢	$208	0xd3212f…
10-22 15:23:14	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	400	46¢	$184	0xdaa6e1…
10-22 15:19:35	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xbb783b…
10-22 15:16:23	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x33600f…
10-22 14:15:05	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x199f97…
10-22 12:35:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	278	98¢	$273	0x2456c1…
10-22 12:09:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	306	98¢	$299	0xeac396…
10-22 12:07:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$19	0xa721d7…
10-22 11:29:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6ece24…
10-22 10:53:15	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	120	97¢	$117	0x0f8ff2…
10-22 10:52:59	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	280	97¢	$272	0x71a4c3…
10-22 10:22:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Yes	BUY	400	12¢	$48	0x5a2525…
10-22 10:22:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Yes	BUY	400	12¢	$47	0x26b74f…
10-22 08:24:24	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	88	65¢	$57	0x9c1bd2…
10-21 21:53:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x775fb6…
10-21 20:57:08	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0x14241f…
10-21 20:50:59	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x19d6e2…
10-21 20:50:53	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf540ff…
10-21 19:14:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xde24dc…
10-21 18:08:15	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	24	64¢	$15	0x019c42…
10-21 17:26:36	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0x939e4d…
10-21 17:22:57	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x475ef9…