Improbable-Originality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$91

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

359

Trades

7,188

lifetime

Volume

$95.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 06-15 04:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 90% +$91

Other

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Politics

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 1748 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1772194200	3	$946	677	357	+320	open	—	02-27 12:13
fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	2	$541	330	330	+0	open	—	06-15 03:21
btc updown 5m 1772787600	1	$400	423	0	+423	open	—	03-06 09:04
btc updown 5m 1772872500	1	$400	408	0	+408	open	—	03-07 08:39
btc updown 5m 1772895300	1	$400	408	0	+408	open	—	03-07 14:59
btc updown 5m 1772896800	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-07 15:24
btc updown 5m 1772939100	1	$400	586	0	+586	open	—	03-08 03:10
btc updown 5m 1772810100	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 15:19
btc updown 5m 1772770200	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 04:14
btc updown 5m 1772774100	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 05:19
btc updown 5m 1772700300	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-05 08:49
btc updown 5m 1772702700	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-05 09:29
btc updown 5m 1772790900	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 09:59
btc updown 5m 1772803500	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 13:29
btc updown 5m 1772721900	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-05 14:49
btc updown 5m 1772703300	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-05 09:39
btc updown 5m 1772764500	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 02:39
btc updown 5m 1772787000	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 08:54
btc updown 5m 1772871000	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-07 08:14
btc updown 5m 1772894400	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-07 14:44
btc updown 5m 1772789100	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 09:29
btc updown 5m 1772776500	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 05:59
btc updown 5m 1772775900	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 05:49
btc updown 5m 1772806500	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	03-06 14:19
btc updown 5m 1772804100	1	$400	408	0	+408	open	—	03-06 13:39
btc updown 5m 1772772300	1	$400	408	0	+408	open	—	03-06 04:49
btc updown 5m 1772772900	1	$400	408	0	+408	open	—	03-06 04:59
btc updown 5m 1772771400	1	$400	405	0	+405	open	—	03-06 04:34
btc updown 5m 1772809200	1	$387	391	0	+391	open	—	03-06 15:04
btc updown 5m 1772341200	1	$371	379	0	+379	open	—	03-01 05:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 04:53:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xa140d3…
06-15 04:52:09	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	446	56¢	$250	0x379aff…
06-15 03:21:10	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	330	73¢	$241	0xcb0d45…
06-15 03:18:12	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xb4c24b…
06-15 02:28:43	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0x0d087d…
06-15 00:53:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xda7735…
06-15 00:52:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xebcf16…
06-14 22:16:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x04698a…
06-14 22:16:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x9647cf…
06-14 18:12:34	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Germany	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x872d2d…
06-14 16:39:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x1de2d2…
06-14 11:55:25	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x5ce9e1…
06-14 08:20:58	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xc5bb20…
06-14 06:56:06	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xaf66ef…
06-14 06:55:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x1ba049…
06-14 02:55:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	SELL	46	76¢	$35	0x3c270a…
06-14 01:33:39	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x47b76d…
06-13 13:55:10	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xe36db4…
06-13 09:56:51	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Germany	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x666dda…
06-12 07:26:06	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x241547…
06-12 07:25:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xd94700…
06-12 07:24:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x91b0b4…
06-11 03:10:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x9cbe37…
06-11 01:36:43	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	64	88¢	$56	0xc664a2…
06-10 10:41:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x3a6558…
06-10 07:27:19	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0xafeb86…
06-10 01:26:22	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xc57583…
06-09 23:05:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x5e77b8…
06-09 23:05:45	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x673d9b…
06-09 23:05:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe8fd05…
06-09 03:08:24	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	SELL	43	81¢	$34	0x0afed9…
06-08 15:17:00	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xaaf2e8…
06-07 04:24:28	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Golden Knights	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x8e8b10…
06-06 11:00:34	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2b8bba…
06-06 11:00:27	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xeb0162…
06-06 11:00:18	will ethereum reach 2300 in june 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0x488293…
06-06 01:41:55	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Golden Knights	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x8af62d…
06-05 05:12:43	lol tes we 2026 06 07	Top Esports	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x8081bf…
06-05 04:14:58	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x0f24be…
06-05 00:59:57	nhl las car 2026 06 04	Hurricanes	SELL	85	42¢	$36	0x1ac27c…
06-04 17:45:39	cs2 tl1 hero 2026 06 04	Heroic	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0xacf0c8…
06-04 17:25:37	cs2 m80 nrg 2026 06 04	NRG	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xd6efd5…
06-04 14:41:30	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04	Sharks	SELL	2	22¢	$1	0xb53800…
06-04 12:20:04	cs2 thunde fly 2026 06 04 map handicap home 1pt5	THUNDER dOWNUNDER	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x501b24…
06-04 11:56:28	wta preston dudeney 2026 06 01	Taylah Preston	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xc79d2d…
06-04 06:56:00	lol mvk gam 2026 06 05	GAM Esports	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xa8c278…
06-04 06:54:27	lol al lgd 2026 06 05	Anyone's Legend	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x3d5664…
06-04 06:53:03	nhl las car 2026 06 04	Hurricanes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x188de8…
06-04 00:27:58	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x6ce1f8…
06-04 00:24:16	cs2 m80 nrg 2026 06 04	NRG	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x41541c…
06-04 00:23:28	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc647d8…
06-04 00:16:09	mlb cle nyy 2026 06 03	New York Yankees	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x9b080b…
06-04 00:13:01	cs2 thunde fly 2026 06 04 map handicap home 1pt5	THUNDER dOWNUNDER	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xac2f16…
06-04 00:12:04	mlb tor atl 2026 06 03	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xc2219d…
06-04 00:01:43	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 17pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	82¢	$1	0xf5c3bd…
06-04 00:01:42	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 10pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x56e584…
06-04 00:00:55	wnba tor nyl 2026 06 03 total 172pt5	Over	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x588ce4…
06-03 23:50:22	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 9pt5	Knicks	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf0c261…
06-03 23:50:21	cs2 tl1 hero 2026 06 04	Heroic	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9fd7b9…
06-03 23:16:58	nhl las car 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x13093a…
06-03 22:54:45	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 5pt5	Spurs	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbff391…
06-03 22:21:10	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04	Sharks	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd6fcab…
06-03 21:58:52	cs2 thunde fly 2026 06 04	FlyQuest	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0xf8c4e8…
06-03 21:58:52	mlb lad ari 2026 06 03	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb6b77e…
06-03 21:25:28	mlb sf mil 2026 06 03	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xdf31b7…
06-03 21:25:27	wnba tor nyl 2026 06 03 total 172pt5	Over	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x638d71…
06-03 20:54:25	mlb nym sea 2026 06 03	Seattle Mariners	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x6b75e5…
06-03 20:51:48	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 216pt5	Over	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa98139…
06-03 20:40:27	mlb pit hou 2026 06 03	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x43d85d…
06-03 20:29:09	atp marti ellis 2026 06 01	Andres Martin	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa87b01…
06-03 20:05:27	atp tseng skatov 2026 06 03	Chun-Hsin Tseng	SELL	2	31¢	$0	0x6144a7…
06-03 19:40:57	wta lepchen grant 2026 06 03	Tyra Caterina Grant	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x06f409…
06-03 19:35:52	atp berrett arnaldi 2026 06 03	Matteo Berrettini	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x58bbdb…
06-03 19:32:21	atp tseng skatov 2026 06 03	Chun-Hsin Tseng	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9a4897…
06-03 19:32:21	mlb oak chc 2026 06 03	Chicago Cubs	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8b0d73…
06-03 19:31:45	mlb mia wsh 2026 06 03	Washington Nationals	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xd5903a…
06-03 19:20:58	Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant	Tyra Caterina Grant	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0x94fbe0…
06-03 19:20:58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5	Under	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0df63f…
06-03 18:57:09	Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu	Tung-Lin Wu	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x80a1b7…
06-03 18:13:09	Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu	Tung-Lin Wu	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x679dd1…
06-03 18:05:07	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xf93d64…
06-03 18:05:07	Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x226536…
06-03 17:53:54	Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday	Johannus Monday	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x145b17…
06-03 17:50:12	Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe23afc…
06-03 17:50:10	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	Under	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0f1963…
06-03 17:34:30	Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	Gaimin Gladiators	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0xf17863…
06-03 17:30:27	Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5)	Gaimin Gladiators	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0x1fc2fc…
06-03 17:27:30	San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc3d492…
06-03 17:16:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8b0cac…
06-03 17:16:16	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x04d540…
06-03 16:55:12	Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	B8	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x75a165…
06-03 16:53:54	Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds	Kansas City Royals	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x994f57…
06-03 16:42:45	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5cdba3…
06-03 16:31:34	New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x90257e…
06-03 16:31:33	Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x591d5d…
06-03 16:21:24	LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs	Galions	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xaa67cb…
06-03 16:20:15	Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5eb7f0…
06-03 16:08:55	Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x430993…
06-03 16:08:54	Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday	Johannus Monday	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x018867…
06-03 15:57:00	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	Sinners	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x10b3db…