Fluid-Half — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$235

Unrealized P&L

-$143

Hit rate

80.5%

Resolved

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$34.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$214

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-28 19:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

76% 86% +$235

Other

21% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes		+151	$100	3¢	$5	$-95	06-28 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		+833	$50	0¢	$2	$-48	06-22 11:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$4.7K	3,656	3,656	+0	open	—	03-05 17:57
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	3	$3.1K	1,934	1,934	+0	open	—	03-05 04:48
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$2.2K	1,709	854	+854	open	—	03-07 21:50
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	2	$2.2K	1,106	1,106	+0	open	—	03-02 20:26
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	11	$2.0K	57,516	800	+56,716	open	—	03-28 17:05
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$1.8K	948	948	+0	open	—	03-12 16:23
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$1.7K	950	950	+0	open	—	03-21 21:07
will iran strike oman in march	2	$1.1K	1,509	0	+1,509	open	—	03-03 06:34
will iran strike jordan in march 375	2	$986	623	623	+0	open	—	03-06 15:22
will iran strike iraq in march	2	$585	322	322	+0	open	—	03-04 20:51
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$564	620	620	+0	open	—	03-27 21:56
us strikes iraq by february 28	2	$515	302	302	+0	open	—	03-02 23:44
will iran strike gulf oil facilities by march 31	1	$488	517	0	+517	open	—	03-02 10:52
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	2	$413	217	217	+0	open	—	03-01 09:16
will israel strike lebanon on march 2 2026	1	$372	384	0	+384	open	—	03-01 23:54
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	4	$325	294	294	+0	open	—	04-18 08:15
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	3	$320	407	0	+407	open	—	04-09 18:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$312	222	222	+0	open	—	02-28 19:57
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	1	$300	320	0	+320	open	—	04-05 20:56
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$300	366	0	+366	open	—	04-08 12:56
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	1	$300	317	0	+317	open	—	04-04 20:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$287	627	627	+0	open	—	05-30 21:01
hezbollah strike on israel by february 28	1	$273	283	0	+283	open	—	03-01 04:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$252	159	159	+0	open	—	05-16 17:45
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	1	$240	258	0	+258	open	—	04-02 20:42
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$231	144	144	+0	open	—	04-18 08:15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$226	137	137	+0	open	—	04-18 09:57
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	2	$224	124	124	+0	open	—	05-17 16:30
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$222	162	162	+0	open	—	04-18 09:58
btc updown 5m 1772649300	3	$220	24,444	0	+24,444	open	—	03-04 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 19:26:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0x37d1ee…
06-22 11:59:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x798493…
06-13 21:53:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x416ec6…
06-13 21:53:01	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xe0720a…
06-13 21:52:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x7e9655…
05-31 19:25:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	620	11¢	$69	0x08da10…
05-30 21:01:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	2¢	$8	0xb7f5f5…
05-30 20:59:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0xae2a38…
05-30 20:59:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	16¢	$100	0xd16b07…
05-24 17:53:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xe801d3…
05-24 17:52:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x0f2114…
05-22 16:34:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	294	27¢	$79	0x8deec6…
05-17 16:30:31	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0xd27542…
05-16 18:29:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x6f07bd…
05-16 18:00:23	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x5c3d6b…
05-16 17:45:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	159	96¢	$152	0x2894c1…
05-09 20:21:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	41¢	$46	0xb82a38…
05-08 14:28:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x55a662…
05-08 14:28:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x99a7ea…
05-08 14:28:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xca9847…
05-08 14:28:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xb37b12…
05-08 14:28:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x47d60f…
05-08 14:28:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xc43806…
05-08 14:28:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x04e5fa…
05-08 14:28:23	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0xea87e5…
05-08 14:28:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x3240d9…
05-08 14:28:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xa602b0…
05-08 14:28:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x9f42d7…
05-08 14:28:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xf3e05a…
05-08 14:27:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xad7c9e…
05-08 14:27:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x00477c…
04-24 16:20:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x903025…
04-23 20:22:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x62b6b1…
04-23 20:22:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x6b6aaa…
04-23 20:22:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x385eaf…
04-23 20:22:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x66d961…
04-23 20:22:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x4f8562…
04-23 20:22:08	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x5dad85…
04-22 21:52:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xa6098a…
04-22 21:52:04	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x55de2c…
04-22 21:49:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xa6770e…
04-18 09:58:26	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	162	75¢	$122	0xa3b038…
04-18 09:57:32	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	137	92¢	$126	0xbfee2b…
04-18 08:16:36	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	104	91¢	$94	0xf5d5bb…
04-18 08:15:58	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	144	91¢	$131	0xc9ec43…
04-18 08:15:24	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	SELL	149	97¢	$144	0x1c43d7…
04-11 05:51:31	us x iran meeting by april 11 2026 678	Yes	BUY	128	94¢	$120	0xd990b1…
04-10 19:49:09	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xd217df…
04-10 19:44:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	144	69¢	$100	0x1bbaa7…
04-10 19:43:05	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0xe6bfee…
04-10 15:19:51	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	147	14¢	$21	0x316163…
04-09 20:36:47	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	67¢	$98	0xf5daac…
04-09 19:59:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	104	53¢	$55	0xa7c2ff…
04-09 18:25:39	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	SELL	145	21¢	$30	0x48240d…
04-09 18:03:57	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xd007de…
04-09 17:57:03	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	BUY	145	35¢	$50	0x6d60cc…
04-09 17:34:09	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x4536f4…
04-09 17:24:27	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	186	54¢	$100	0x2f8e49…
04-09 16:44:27	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	84¢	$170	0xe019a6…
04-09 11:03:09	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	37¢	$35	0x2e9bf1…
04-08 16:38:53	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0xd2bbeb…
04-08 16:38:23	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x4dd9ba…
04-08 13:03:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0xd0a3c3…
04-08 12:56:55	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0x9000c6…
04-08 11:24:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x27ca63…
04-08 00:47:51	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	No	BUY	237	85¢	$200	0xaee281…
04-08 00:47:31	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xb9e8f8…
04-05 20:56:11	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	94¢	$300	0xd02937…
04-05 11:45:11	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	31¢	$32	0x76d060…
04-04 20:03:37	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	94¢	$300	0xbfbb8d…
04-03 15:05:37	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x52ead0…
04-02 20:42:33	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	258	93¢	$240	0xee470b…
04-01 05:20:23	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	90¢	$200	0x25ca0c…
03-31 12:41:17	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x809241…
03-28 17:05:05	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	42,872	2¢	$799	0x708bc8…
03-28 16:36:19	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0x843938…
03-28 16:35:17	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	8,889	1¢	$80	0xb4a25b…
03-28 14:40:59	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	1,260	1¢	$10	0x76f8c6…
03-28 06:58:17	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	1,105	2¢	$20	0x55ebf6…
03-27 21:56:01	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	155	78¢	$120	0x88ed6d…
03-27 04:58:17	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	SELL	800	76¢	$611	0xc4d6f8…
03-26 22:01:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	465	31¢	$143	0x707eec…
03-26 21:16:03	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x45ad5b…
03-26 21:15:41	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x7c0d77…
03-26 21:15:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x6b7614…
03-26 21:14:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xa1a50a…
03-26 13:34:03	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	246	53¢	$130	0x9e5599…
03-26 11:04:15	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	293	17¢	$50	0x437ce2…
03-26 11:01:37	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	306	16¢	$50	0xf224ee…
03-25 09:51:33	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	93	16¢	$15	0x7bd762…
03-23 11:40:45	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	257	39¢	$100	0xd69478…
03-23 11:11:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	363	55¢	$200	0x4a231f…
03-22 20:22:09	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	Yes	BUY	224	89¢	$200	0xbe92e5…
03-22 20:21:59	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 29 2026 897	Yes	BUY	239	84¢	$200	0xcbe1d0…
03-22 20:21:51	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x0352d1…
03-22 20:21:39	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x0c4a43…
03-22 20:21:33	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	223	90¢	$200	0xd0de25…
03-22 20:21:27	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 24 2026 996	Yes	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x0dea5a…
03-21 21:56:19	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	Yes	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x7a6f27…
03-21 21:55:43	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	229	87¢	$200	0x4d4f72…