Mortified-Kiwi — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$3.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$106

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-05 12:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% 100% +$5

Other

34% — —

Sports

15% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No		-115	$-106	92¢	$-106	$-1	06-27 05:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	9	$381	591	0	+591	open	—	02-27 22:19
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$295	196	196	+0	open	—	02-14 22:38
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$247	161	161	+0	open	—	06-15 12:07
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	2	$242	147	147	+0	open	—	01-30 00:18
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$237	146	146	+0	open	—	06-26 04:04
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$211	142	142	+0	open	—	03-01 03:18
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$191	135	135	+0	open	—	01-27 12:02
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	2	$163	128	128	+0	open	—	01-27 12:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	2	$160	111	111	+0	open	—	05-25 03:56
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	1	$106	0	115	-115	open	—	06-27 05:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$101	65	65	+0	Yes	+$1	02-28 23:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$96	82	82	+0	Yes	+$4	02-28 23:09
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$88	625	625	+0	open	—	02-04 05:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$78	121	0	+121	open	—	05-24 08:11
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	6	$72	46	46	+0	open	—	06-30 03:37
btc updown 5m 1771109400	3	$64	2,024	24	+2,000	open	—	02-14 22:56
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$61	262	262	+0	open	—	01-30 05:06
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$50	143	0	+143	open	—	01-13 00:36
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$40	114	0	+114	open	—	01-24 03:55
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total away 0pt5	2	$38	28	28	+0	open	—	07-03 23:43
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	3	$33	30	30	+0	open	—	07-04 00:06
btc updown 5m 1771327500	3	$32	30	30	+0	open	—	02-17 11:29
fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 team total home 0pt5	2	$28	18	18	+0	open	—	06-27 04:51
fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	06-16 03:06
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	2	$20	22	22	+0	open	—	06-30 22:42
fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 extra time	1	$20	65	0	+65	open	—	07-03 02:54
btc updown 5m 1771108800	1	$20	187	0	+187	open	—	02-14 22:45
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	06-29 23:23
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	1	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	07-05 12:28
fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team total home 1pt5	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	07-03 02:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 12:28:52	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xeb5432…
07-05 12:28:28	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xdd9bef…
07-04 00:06:29	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0x1889e2…
07-03 23:55:20	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd728ba…
07-03 23:43:08	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x80c097…
07-03 02:54:43	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 extra time	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x35ebc9…
07-03 02:53:47	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x0f7a25…
07-03 02:52:25	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x013658…
07-02 22:52:52	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xc161c2…
07-02 22:51:02	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x3d1a43…
06-30 22:42:34	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0xd5593a…
06-30 03:37:49	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x6a2074…
06-30 03:37:31	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xcba104…
06-30 03:32:37	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xe1fd85…
06-30 03:32:32	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0xc3f7e6…
06-30 03:32:29	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$0	0x184d3a…
06-30 02:55:02	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xa614f9…
06-29 23:23:44	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x030357…
06-29 23:22:55	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x901bd3…
06-29 13:01:20	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x71d8ee…
06-29 13:01:05	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x430815…
06-29 12:59:31	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x2888cc…
06-29 12:56:16	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x8c0292…
06-27 05:05:28	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	115	92¢	$106	0x5c3755…
06-27 04:51:29	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x6a9705…
06-27 00:35:49	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x42fcc1…
06-26 04:04:17	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	146	94¢	$137	0xdbfd80…
06-18 12:42:04	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x771e9a…
06-16 21:51:19	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x573fb4…
06-16 21:51:02	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 2pt5	Norway	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x758523…
06-16 21:50:47	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x6e0f25…
06-16 03:06:12	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	New Zealand	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0xe5971e…
06-16 00:33:21	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	New Zealand	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xc8dc91…
06-15 12:07:54	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	161	91¢	$147	0x974a0f…
06-05 02:22:15	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x742849…
06-05 02:17:43	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	146	69¢	$100	0x6ee4b8…
05-25 03:56:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xad5e75…
05-24 08:11:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	121	64¢	$78	0xd3e632…
05-24 08:10:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x07f187…
03-01 03:18:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	SELL	142	78¢	$111	0x6b153e…
02-28 23:13:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0x657054…
02-28 23:09:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	82	61¢	$50	0xdea790…
02-28 23:09:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	65	79¢	$51	0x94319b…
02-27 22:19:45	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	99	77¢	$76	0xeea828…
02-27 22:18:55	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xf9292a…
02-27 22:18:55	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	41	77¢	$32	0x3f475f…
02-27 22:16:33	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xf649af…
02-27 22:16:33	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	24	77¢	$18	0x7b955d…
02-27 22:16:23	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	137	77¢	$106	0x0e0ee0…
02-27 22:16:21	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x1fe21f…
02-21 06:12:52	btc updown 5m 1771654200	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbd2317…
02-21 06:12:16	btc updown 5m 1771654200	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x011374…
02-18 05:03:40	btc updown 5m 1771390800	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x509116…
02-18 05:01:08	btc updown 5m 1771390800	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc2fce4…
02-18 04:54:02	btc updown 5m 1771390200	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xcbacaf…
02-18 04:52:56	btc updown 5m 1771390200	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x394af0…
02-17 11:43:57	btc updown 5m 1771328400	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6b4baf…
02-17 11:37:59	btc updown 5m 1771328100	Up	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0x390f89…
02-17 11:36:47	btc updown 5m 1771328100	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x30d209…
02-17 11:33:33	btc updown 5m 1771327800	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8e2e90…
02-17 11:29:21	btc updown 5m 1771327500	Up	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x9c44f9…
02-17 11:27:21	btc updown 5m 1771327500	Up	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xfdc11d…
02-17 11:26:11	btc updown 5m 1771327500	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0fd1de…
02-17 11:24:29	btc updown 5m 1771327200	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x8047c8…
02-15 07:56:03	btc updown 5m 1771142100	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe6e7e2…
02-15 07:52:01	btc updown 5m 1771141800	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x83d2ce…
02-15 07:50:21	btc updown 5m 1771141800	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa602d0…
02-15 07:44:19	btc updown 5m 1771141200	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x04c716…
02-15 07:42:27	btc updown 5m 1771141200	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x64b125…
02-15 07:39:27	btc updown 5m 1771140900	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xab7e3e…
02-15 07:37:29	btc updown 5m 1771140900	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x878b30…
02-15 07:08:47	btc updown 5m 1771139100	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcf7d43…
02-15 06:44:53	btc updown 5m 1771137600	Up	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xd70f6f…
02-15 02:22:35	btc updown 5m 1771122000	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x260659…
02-15 02:20:43	btc updown 5m 1771121700	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x09924f…
02-15 02:19:57	btc updown 5m 1771121700	Down	SELL	12	29¢	$3	0xe09c50…
02-15 02:18:31	btc updown 5m 1771121700	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8fc47c…
02-15 00:35:41	btc updown 5m 1771115400	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xa2f623…
02-15 00:33:35	btc updown 5m 1771115400	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x14624d…
02-14 22:56:49	btc updown 5m 1771109400	Up	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x21af2f…
02-14 22:56:05	btc updown 5m 1771109400	Down	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x5f5fa2…
02-14 22:54:35	btc updown 5m 1771109400	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x3ca1de…
02-14 22:45:03	btc updown 5m 1771108800	Up	BUY	187	11¢	$20	0xd6dc77…
02-14 22:38:47	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	SELL	196	99¢	$195	0xe09ba2…
02-04 22:01:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	82	56¢	$46	0x681ee4…
02-04 22:00:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x9e2409…
02-04 05:39:18	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	625	6¢	$38	0x4dc118…
02-04 05:37:42	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xd33cd1…
01-30 05:06:36	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	262	8¢	$21	0x5b072d…
01-30 00:56:42	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	119	17¢	$20	0x08625f…
01-30 00:56:18	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0xcd1cb3…
01-30 00:45:24	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x6cf752…
01-30 00:18:32	will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	No	SELL	147	97¢	$142	0xcd0739…
01-27 13:10:31	will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x24088f…
01-27 12:02:13	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	SELL	135	90¢	$122	0xb03a81…
01-27 12:02:07	Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	88¢	$113	0x36acdd…
01-24 03:55:38	Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0xba791c…
01-24 03:55:30	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xe2e59f…
01-19 05:59:36	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x7b484d…
01-13 00:58:47	Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x632543…