Unfortunate-Service — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$570

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

69.5%

Resolved

392

Trades

1,816

lifetime

Volume

$20.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 09-16 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Other

65% 39% -$349

Politics

21% 49% -$216

Sports

9% 33% +$15

Pop-Culture

2% 40% +$18

Crypto

2% 40% -$20

Tech

1% 17% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-22	-$14	72¢	$-16	-$2	09-16 13:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on february 13 2026	46	$2.1K	6,472	6,520	-48	Up	+$164	02-13 19:18
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	34	$1.7K	1,326	1,326	+0	Yes	+$78	02-14 13:55
us strikes iraq by february 28	12	$789	490	490	+0	Yes	+$75	03-02 16:51
will the lincoln lawyer season 4 be the 2 us netflix show this week	58	$665	827	832	-5	Yes	-$23	02-17 11:34
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 100 119	27	$558	557	407	+150	No	-$60	02-16 18:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$357	488	200	+288	No	-$40	03-09 10:23
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	39	$332	877	312	+565	No	+$13	04-21 21:18
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	8	$331	400	216	+184	Up	+$95	02-13 13:30
will russia join the board of peace	8	$302	160	160	+0	No	+$2	03-18 03:27
will sp 500 spx close over 6940 on the final trading day of february 2026	3	$300	400	400	+0	No	+$4	02-18 14:58
atp jong rublev 2026 02 16 set handicap away 1pt5	2	$248	148	148	+0	Rublev	+$48	02-17 21:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	15	$240	240	240	+0	No	+$2	03-01 15:12
atp mensik zhang 2026 02 18	2	$238	141	141	+0	Mensik	+$38	02-18 16:54
atp mensik popyrin 2026 02 25	2	$237	137	137	+0	Mensik	+$37	02-25 18:20
will iran strike israel on march 3	5	$213	135	135	+0	Yes	+$54	03-04 08:08
spx up or down on february 17 2026	4	$210	250	250	+0	Up	+$30	02-17 16:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	10	$199	200	200	+0	Yes	+$3	03-07 14:26
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	9	$193	150	150	+0	No	-$1	03-24 12:33
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 60 79	2	$193	100	100	+0	No	+$7	02-16 17:51
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$181	112	112	+0	No	+$0	03-02 17:20
pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	4	$180	100	100	+0	No	+$4	02-13 19:09
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$167	100	100	+0	No	+$1	03-04 16:44
msft up or down on february 12 2026	3	$164	100	100	+0	Down	+$4	02-12 20:43
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	22	$161	147	147	+0	Yes	+$9	04-04 11:47
will mrbeasts latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1	13	$161	563	900	-337	Yes	-$300	02-10 15:34
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	13	$160	126	126	+0	No	+$72	04-17 18:26
will trump say israel 13 times during meeting with netanyahu	11	$156	574	226	+348	No	-$121	02-11 16:49
another us bank failure by march 31	20	$153	140	140	+0	No	+$1	03-16 17:43
will the dhs shutdown end between march 24 27 2026	22	$152	199	199	+0	No	+$3	03-25 15:35
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$151	100	100	+0	Yes	+$15	03-05 08:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 13:47:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xa41c0a…
09-16 13:47:40	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	64¢	$14	0x11890a…
07-26 22:44:06	Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	No	SELL	25	87¢	$22	0xa31a63…
07-26 22:36:36	Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	No	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x8d6061…
07-24 10:58:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	37	24¢	$9	0x25b130…
07-24 10:58:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	107	24¢	$26	0x153f71…
07-24 07:58:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x18b9e8…
07-23 05:56:04	Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xfb0875…
07-20 05:31:54	Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xb65d93…
07-09 10:50:10	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xc8bc2c…
07-07 11:30:14	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xdc6660…
07-02 11:02:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xbbf275…
06-26 11:40:41	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xcb46fa…
06-25 22:11:29	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xe8fe8b…
06-25 12:48:19	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xb9e3c3…
06-25 12:46:28	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0x376b8f…
06-24 15:03:49	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xabf88c…
06-21 09:08:58	will florian wirtz score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xc05f0c…
06-20 01:46:19	will the announcers say ankle during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747256	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8295ca…
06-19 21:01:35	will the announcers say trump during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747250	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xebb58e…
06-19 21:01:23	will the announcers say trump during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747250	Yes	BUY	67	8¢	$5	0xb2f45b…
06-19 19:54:23	will the announcers say trump during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747250	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x76a6b1…
06-19 19:22:13	will the announcers say goal 20 times during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747246	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x531409…
06-19 18:45:16	will the announcers say trump during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747250	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x7175e8…
06-19 18:23:08	will the announcers say trump during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747250	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0xdddbe4…
06-19 18:22:25	will the announcers say history during the usa vs australia fifa world cup match 20260619150747255	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x213d0e…
06-18 16:28:47	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x669ea2…
06-13 11:31:55	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xd6262f…
06-12 22:57:25	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x3ba63b…
06-12 22:56:40	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xacc70d…
06-12 15:50:21	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x6ae7a1…
06-11 15:37:12	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x7ece78…
06-11 10:26:09	will florian wirtz score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x591ec0…
06-10 22:31:58	will denzel dumfries score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xb04a8e…
06-07 08:43:40	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xec89f0…
06-03 12:59:40	Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x905b76…
06-03 10:46:14	Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x06357d…
06-01 12:57:51	Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	No	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0xf258d0…
06-01 12:57:32	Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	No	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0x8ca675…
05-30 14:17:08	Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xd44189…
05-30 09:27:41	Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xfedcb3…
05-25 19:50:17	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x1c7878…
05-24 15:59:04	Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?	Yes	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0xa45ed2…
05-23 13:45:07	Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xff715a…
05-23 13:28:19	Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x4bd7c3…
05-23 12:16:43	Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xcc5b4d…
05-23 08:29:30	Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0x08e41f…
05-22 16:31:37	Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x36746a…
05-21 23:07:32	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x3acbb8…
05-21 20:30:02	Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Father" 5+ times on Thursday?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x6f32c2…
05-21 18:59:23	Will Sean Collinson advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xbd5695…
05-21 18:51:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xa2e708…
05-21 18:50:38	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x4fe35e…
05-21 18:50:19	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	SELL	90	37¢	$33	0xae4d56…
05-21 09:19:49	Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x1459d7…
05-21 06:37:16	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xcc73ee…
05-21 04:19:27	Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x2ee32c…
05-21 03:07:18	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x74f41d…
05-20 17:12:25	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xcc97af…
05-20 15:00:52	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xa916bf…
05-20 14:54:22	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xf12b56…
05-20 13:06:15	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x7a7f75…
05-20 10:44:37	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xed6d6e…
05-19 17:00:18	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.7B?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x7c72ad…
05-19 14:53:23	Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.7B?	No	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0x830e1e…
05-19 08:48:24	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0xc94690…
05-19 07:53:34	Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x9b02e6…
05-19 02:06:08	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?	No	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0xd81831…
05-19 00:18:34	Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x095746…
05-19 00:17:17	Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0xf6a93f…
05-19 00:15:39	Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa47e3b…
05-18 20:50:38	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x285ad9…
05-18 20:31:37	Will Gen.G Global Academy win LCK CL 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xe34e7b…
05-18 20:30:45	Will Jesús Luzardo strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa147bd…
05-18 20:23:11	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xed27fa…
05-18 20:08:21	Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7a2f01…
05-18 20:04:54	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0xa73ad3…
05-18 19:06:10	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x11cc25…
05-18 17:18:39	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x25f602…
05-18 16:25:04	Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9ce352…
05-18 15:55:39	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x9e31db…
05-18 13:51:06	Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0x805944…
05-18 12:02:45	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0xe6a509…
05-18 09:42:03	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x2649b6…
05-17 17:51:16	Will David Ross be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xf4307e…
05-17 16:28:40	Will David Ross be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x908bc8…
05-17 16:28:40	Will Carlos Beltran be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0d3236…
05-17 13:50:46	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x615382…
05-16 17:14:29	Will Jeyson Lopez advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x2e10d1…
05-16 00:22:48	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x384538…
05-15 20:27:43	Will Jeyson Lopez advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x0295cd…
05-15 19:59:12	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x72c447…
05-15 19:50:07	Will Sean Collinson advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xaffb0e…
05-15 11:07:47	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x437a5e…
05-15 10:49:08	Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0x3f3a60…
05-15 08:17:11	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x93ff7b…
05-15 07:27:53	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xb34475…
05-15 03:55:26	Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x2eab2e…
05-14 21:42:06	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xff5171…
05-14 21:03:05	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0xc18e7a…