Novel-Beanie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$221

Unrealized P&L

-$119

Hit rate

64.0%

Resolved

Trades

284

lifetime

Volume

$1.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$130

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-27 12:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

81% 43% +$208

Tech

14% 35% +$13

Politics

4% 50% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	+328	$62	22¢	$72	+$10	10-25 22:57
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+391	$59	4¢	$18	-$41	10-22 08:33
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	+172	$34	9¢	$15	-$19	06-01 11:33
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$20	38¢	$15	-$5	08-21 23:03
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	+352	$32	2¢	$6	-$25	10-15 10:28
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+30	$22	5¢	$2	-$20	10-11 22:58
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+70	$14	2¢	$1	-$13	10-18 14:41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	1¢	$0	-$6	10-11 14:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	2	$191	545	545	+0	No	+$16	08-21 13:43
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	3	$184	581	253	+328	open	—	10-25 22:57
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	3	$172	127	127	+0	open	—	10-11 12:25
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?	1	$93	109	0	+109	open	—	10-15 10:26
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	36	$82	1,464	106	+1,358	No	-$78	04-28 06:47
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	2	$74	90	0	+90	Yes	+$16	04-24 03:49
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$70	0	71	-71	No	-$1	05-30 14:22
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$59	391	0	+391	open	—	10-22 08:33
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$57	71	0	+71	Yes	+$14	07-23 04:53
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	04-28 06:46
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	6	$47	210	210	+0	No	+$20	04-20 10:28
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$47	48	0	+48	No	+$1	04-24 11:13
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$42	49	0	+49	No	-$42	06-13 01:43
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2	$40	46	0	+46	Yes	+$6	05-30 21:05
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$38	64	0	+64	open	—	10-25 23:00
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	1	$34	172	0	+172	open	—	06-01 11:33
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	1	$32	352	0	+352	open	—	10-15 10:28
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$30	50	50	+0	No	-$2	04-22 06:53
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	1	$30	45	0	+45	Yes	+$15	06-13 03:54
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	3	$23	35	0	+35	Yes	+$12	05-31 03:49
will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	1	$23	166	0	+166	Yes	-$23	07-23 02:17
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	1	$22	309	0	+309	open	—	10-18 09:44
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$22	30	0	+30	open	—	10-11 22:58
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	2	$21	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	06-13 03:38
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	08-21 23:03
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$18	20	0	+20	Yes	+$2	04-19 23:18
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$18	50	0	+50	Yes	+$32	08-22 01:09
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	1	$16	54	0	+54	Yes	+$38	05-05 16:48
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	1	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$15	05-31 02:18
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	5	$14	70	0	+70	open	—	10-18 14:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:19:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x931b21…
10-25 23:00:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x30ef2b…
10-25 23:00:18	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	44	59¢	$26	0xb790f0…
10-25 22:59:42	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x1abc43…
10-25 22:57:21	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xebaeb1…
10-25 22:56:45	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	SELL	253	24¢	$61	0x53df9e…
10-22 08:33:50	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	391	15¢	$59	0xffd962…
10-18 14:41:26	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd73010…
10-18 14:41:26	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xc5f9a4…
10-18 14:41:26	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x2d0c33…
10-18 09:44:27	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	309	7¢	$22	0xd91fa6…
10-18 09:41:26	Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x11164b…
10-18 09:37:18	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$4	0xc5b5c2…
10-16 13:58:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0x711fe5…
10-16 07:27:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x43b0b0…
10-16 07:27:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x1d941e…
10-16 04:40:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x72bd76…
10-16 03:27:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x893fbf…
10-16 03:14:04	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x927400…
10-15 21:35:56	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x7a7b1a…
10-15 21:07:56	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x386d62…
10-15 17:54:14	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0x0d95cc…
10-15 17:42:43	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6b5851…
10-15 16:09:38	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0xd050ca…
10-15 16:04:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xe52cb5…
10-15 12:58:28	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x0a13ee…
10-15 10:28:22	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	352	9¢	$32	0x570568…
10-15 10:26:38	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	85¢	$93	0x590e08…
10-15 10:15:19	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xfd5ad9…
10-11 22:58:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xb74c38…
10-11 14:28:07	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	BUY	561	21¢	$118	0x5ef4bf…
10-11 14:25:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xbdaa1f…
10-11 12:25:52	Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	SELL	127	60¢	$77	0x7a1c6c…
08-22 01:09:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xfcd9a1…
08-22 01:08:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x75b167…
08-22 01:05:55	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0x47f562…
08-22 01:05:06	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x9ab94e…
08-22 01:04:22	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	2¢	$3	0xddea00…
08-21 23:03:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xb7ccd1…
08-21 14:14:37	Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	BUY	85	75¢	$64	0xca3f0a…
08-21 14:12:15	Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0x363691…
08-21 13:43:03	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	545	19¢	$104	0x403cdc…
08-10 00:43:27	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	545	16¢	$87	0x68fd47…
07-24 14:41:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x4cec26…
07-24 13:32:33	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x11761b…
07-24 13:31:06	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xc6e682…
07-24 13:30:36	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xdd41b6…
07-24 12:02:42	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	No	BUY	169	3¢	$6	0xf3c295…
07-24 11:54:30	moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x430da0…
07-23 04:53:24	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0xd13de3…
07-23 04:53:18	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x1366f9…
07-23 02:17:30	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	166	14¢	$23	0x6b3624…
06-16 12:18:34	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xe6fc5f…
06-16 12:17:40	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	28¢	$5	0xd8382f…
06-16 12:16:24	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	9¢	$7	0xdd8d80…
06-16 12:15:48	Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x04b609…
06-13 03:54:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0xf7b304…
06-13 03:50:12	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0xc955c4…
06-13 03:38:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0x1facca…
06-13 01:50:34	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 26 2026 20260601225410820	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x7b6286…
06-13 01:47:37	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6a6561…
06-13 01:43:40	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x6b6c30…
06-13 01:42:31	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x9bb8d1…
06-04 03:13:25	Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xe6f525…
06-04 03:13:25	Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	1¢	$1	0xa6e6eb…
06-04 03:13:06	Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xa5f7c5…
06-03 10:48:30	Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xcd8098…
06-03 09:28:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0xc6279b…
06-03 09:28:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x3be3a0…
06-03 09:28:28	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x10b546…
06-02 21:04:29	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x517865…
06-02 07:34:37	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xa2d7f4…
06-02 07:05:13	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x557ec6…
06-02 07:05:11	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x324a7c…
06-01 17:02:51	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x5f5f65…
06-01 14:40:16	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xdcc036…
06-01 11:33:34	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	172	20¢	$34	0x1a4972…
05-31 07:31:54	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0x1e60c2…
05-31 05:48:09	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x6b81ea…
05-31 03:49:37	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb30ad6…
05-31 02:18:58	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x79de92…
05-31 02:10:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xe056e0…
05-30 22:27:09	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x85f0ca…
05-30 21:05:00	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x17a47a…
05-30 20:17:03	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2cd55e…
05-30 19:02:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xcf44e6…
05-30 17:34:39	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	17¢	$5	0x72a6b3…
05-30 17:34:39	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x37d9da…
05-30 15:34:09	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xb9c826…
05-30 14:33:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb973f4…
05-30 14:22:44	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	71	99¢	$70	0x026ffb…
05-30 14:20:29	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0xf81eb7…
05-21 07:47:06	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xd6aa22…
05-21 02:45:29	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xd8c4ee…
05-21 01:21:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x2ac231…
05-21 01:01:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xe7078e…
05-21 01:01:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$2	0xe1069f…
05-21 01:01:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x32cdbc…
05-21 00:51:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0x1aca78…
05-21 00:45:31	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x61818e…