Urban-Publisher — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$2.10K

Unrealized P&L

-$636

Hit rate

66.5%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

824 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$15.2K

$86.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

$2.67K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-05 18:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Politics

66% 53% +$1,687

Other

27% 50% +$334

Sports

4% 50% -$477

Crypto

2% 85% +$135

Tech

1% 50% -$128

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+2,734	$1,416	42¢	$1.2K	-$254	11-04 19:20
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+1,481	$1,090	73¢	$1.1K	-$12	11-05 01:09
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$39	100¢	$100	+$61	11-05 18:47
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+182	$76	46¢	$85	+$8	11-05 18:55
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+500	$240	15¢	$73	-$168	08-20 18:29
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	+237	$78	29¢	$70	-$9	08-06 14:33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,016	$163	5¢	$52	-$111	11-04 16:44
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+330	$159	13¢	$44	-$114	08-20 18:28
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+45	$41	6¢	$2	-$38	07-31 17:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	12	$4.8K	2,536	2,434	+102	No	+$69	04-19 21:01
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$2.8K	1,512	1,512	+0	Yes	+$15	10-31 22:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$2.4K	2,438	0	+2,438	Yes	+$5	04-09 16:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	13	$2.4K	3,055	3,055	+0	open	—	07-30 12:14
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	8	$2.4K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	+$0	10-14 21:25
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	36	$2.2K	1,980	1,980	+0	Yes	-$179	08-05 01:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	10-31 04:49
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	3	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	11-04 06:07
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	11	$1.8K	0	2,000	-2,000	Yes	-$159	11-04 01:46
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	3	$1.8K	0	2,000	-2,000	No	-$175	01-21 21:25
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$60	07-14 04:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	8	$1.7K	1,363	600	+763	No	+$170	06-19 23:28
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$110	03-03 07:45
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	15	$1.6K	1,982	1,647	+334	Yes	+$707	07-09 22:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.5K	2,815	503	+2,312	No	-$965	05-23 18:18
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	14	$1.4K	2,734	0	+2,734	open	—	11-04 19:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$1.4K	1,150	250	+900	Yes	+$2	04-21 23:52
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	4	$1.3K	3,806	0	+3,806	No	+$2,462	11-03 23:39
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	5	$1.3K	1,209	1,209	+0	No	+$834	03-05 01:59
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	5	$1.3K	800	800	+0	Yes	+$40	06-18 06:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$1.2K	731	540	+191	No	+$6	02-02 21:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$1.2K	1,950	1,200	+750	Yes	+$158	07-29 17:51
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	3	$1.1K	1,481	0	+1,481	open	—	11-05 01:09
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	7	$1.0K	1,420	700	+720	No	+$261	01-30 02:37
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$1000	0	2,000	-2,000	No	-$1,000	05-06 02:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$981	1,029	672	+357	Yes	+$451	06-14 21:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	4	$900	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$100	07-24 19:50
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	1	$877	900	0	+900	No	+$22	04-08 03:35
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	10	$857	2,209	0	+2,209	Yes	+$1,352	11-03 23:39
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$834	800	800	+0	Yes	+$514	02-28 06:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 18:55:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	42¢	$50	0x38a110…
11-05 18:50:45	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xdafe4e…
11-05 18:47:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xe2de2e…
11-05 18:47:03	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x2ead66…
11-05 18:46:04	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0x220fa3…
11-05 01:09:46	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,256	74¢	$925	0x503321…
11-05 01:04:43	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$147	0xa85844…
11-05 00:41:07	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x422ea2…
11-04 19:20:27	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	519	45¢	$234	0xa438ca…
11-04 17:43:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x08fba9…
11-04 17:43:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0xe035a7…
11-04 17:43:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0xc0bebf…
11-04 17:43:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x8a7141…
11-04 17:43:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x55b282…
11-04 17:43:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	388	62¢	$241	0x427c06…
11-04 17:43:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	223	62¢	$138	0x4c21b1…
11-04 17:02:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	62¢	$620	0x9899fe…
11-04 16:44:52	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,016	16¢	$163	0x6a164b…
11-04 06:47:25	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	284	82¢	$233	0x4d6e0a…
11-04 06:07:42	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	83¢	$1,250	0xeb338b…
11-04 01:49:06	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	750	0¢	$2	0x8ce2bb…
11-04 01:49:00	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,747	1¢	$9	0x41044a…
11-04 01:47:25	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,362	42¢	$572	0x439c5c…
11-04 01:47:12	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	138	42¢	$57	0x875bf6…
11-04 01:46:52	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	926	98¢	$912	0x8b50b5…
11-04 01:46:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	147	98¢	$145	0x958b82…
11-04 01:46:34	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x95710f…
11-04 01:29:03	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	31¢	$89	0xe38739…
11-04 00:10:16	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,747	12¢	$210	0x2c1ab6…
11-04 00:09:27	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x8df526…
11-04 00:09:27	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	221	82¢	$181	0x51421f…
11-04 00:09:27	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	113	82¢	$93	0x445dd2…
11-04 00:09:25	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0x63d828…
11-04 00:09:19	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x93a009…
11-04 00:09:00	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0xb51101…
11-03 23:39:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	777	41¢	$319	0x258ced…
11-03 23:39:33	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	40¢	$33	0xda7245…
11-03 23:39:27	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	152	41¢	$62	0x557792…
11-03 23:38:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	310	85¢	$264	0xebab7c…
11-03 23:38:49	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	190	85¢	$162	0xbe7961…
10-31 22:09:43	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,671	34¢	$908	0xb69b76…
10-31 22:05:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	756	94¢	$711	0xb23752…
10-31 22:02:37	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x94b7b5…
10-31 22:02:10	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x0cec96…
10-31 04:51:33	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	310	36¢	$112	0x02da06…
10-31 04:51:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	132	36¢	$47	0xb58a00…
10-31 04:49:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	400	88¢	$352	0x42dc64…
10-28 23:25:16	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xc9248f…
10-28 23:25:14	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	38¢	$133	0x045a4f…
10-28 23:25:13	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	38¢	$152	0xbb4b0e…
10-28 23:25:13	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x768618…
10-28 23:24:52	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	851	38¢	$327	0x22bffd…
10-28 23:24:47	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	38¢	$65	0x01c3fd…
10-28 23:24:25	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	756	92¢	$695	0x59d316…
10-27 01:41:33	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	750	20¢	$150	0x3e5bc9…
10-27 01:40:44	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	221	80¢	$177	0x900c48…
10-21 00:30:17	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,512	92¢	$1,391	0xa885ed…
10-16 17:22:06	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	BUY	249	88¢	$219	0x0587d7…
10-15 22:44:30	Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x1e0819…
10-15 22:42:28	Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x45007a…
10-15 22:40:39	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xa58ddd…
10-14 21:25:22	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	405	85¢	$344	0xb7c161…
10-14 21:24:07	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	347	85¢	$295	0xcc088d…
10-14 18:09:39	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	648	85¢	$551	0x9732f0…
10-11 18:33:45	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	239	85¢	$203	0x9d4ef9…
10-11 18:33:43	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	368	85¢	$313	0xb2a19b…
10-11 18:33:43	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	193	85¢	$164	0x910de4…
10-11 18:33:43	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	550	85¢	$468	0x21fd75…
10-11 18:33:43	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x0f72cf…
09-18 12:12:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,600	82¢	$1,312	0x549cf0…
09-07 19:28:28	will hunter biden launch a coin by september 30	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xd72365…
08-20 18:29:03	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	500	48¢	$240	0xcbbff3…
08-20 18:28:39	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	48¢	$159	0x33dd57…
08-20 18:28:07	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	400	68¢	$273	0x3a74dc…
08-13 23:30:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x10ef26…
08-12 22:05:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x1447b4…
08-12 22:04:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2dd469…
08-12 21:51:42	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	35	15¢	$5	0x6a2457…
08-12 04:05:22	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x0ed593…
08-12 04:04:24	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x858edd…
08-12 04:03:55	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xe9b01f…
08-07 23:26:28	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	78	47¢	$37	0x0a56ef…
08-07 23:26:00	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xd92888…
08-07 23:26:00	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xc3aafd…
08-07 23:25:51	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa9d4ef…
08-07 23:20:58	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x8132fb…
08-07 23:20:52	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xf36431…
08-07 23:15:57	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x3d423e…
08-07 23:12:43	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	89	47¢	$42	0xafdd50…
08-07 23:12:06	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0x63396b…
08-06 18:37:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	750	26¢	$195	0xffaabd…
08-06 14:33:32	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	237	33¢	$78	0x457a18…
08-05 01:49:57	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	980	96¢	$943	0xd1cd8c…
08-04 23:01:09	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x1dd6f1…
08-04 22:44:02	Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x32a9a9…
08-04 22:39:21	Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xb0769b…
08-04 13:32:12	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xae6516…
08-04 13:32:02	Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0x3ce351…
08-02 21:50:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	109	14¢	$15	0x64aec2…
07-31 21:19:56	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,294	12¢	$155	0xfcbc14…