Trim-Watch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

165

lifetime

Volume

$3.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-24 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% — —

Politics

32% — —

Sports

10% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+0	$0	96¢	$0	+$0	06-07 08:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No		+0	$0	66¢	$0	$-0	06-06 00:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$149	76	76	+0	open	—	03-29 06:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$149	115	115	+0	open	—	04-24 12:30
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	6	$148	82	82	+0	open	—	06-24 22:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$141	132	132	+0	open	—	06-07 08:32
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$126	65	65	+0	No	+$0	04-26 16:55
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$125	81	47	+34	open	—	06-05 20:46
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	6	$106	70	70	+0	open	—	06-19 13:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$93	86	86	+0	open	—	05-28 15:36
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$89	119	119	+0	No	+$0	04-25 08:45
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	8	$84	200	200	+0	open	—	04-27 09:09
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$83	42	42	+0	open	—	04-12 12:04
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	4	$83	80	80	+0	open	—	06-20 21:42
Will Alberta join the US?	10	$81	192	192	+0	open	—	06-07 12:01
Netanyahu out by April 30?	6	$79	122	122	+0	open	—	03-31 19:22
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	7	$79	100	100	+0	open	—	06-18 10:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	05-27 21:37
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$75	81	81	+0	open	—	06-23 09:49
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$74	39	39	+0	open	—	06-12 19:53
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	04-26 21:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	03-30 22:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	05-25 09:16
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$73	38	38	+0	open	—	06-06 15:11
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$73	37	37	+0	open	—	06-09 22:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$73	66	66	+0	open	—	06-08 20:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	4	$69	37	37	+0	open	—	06-20 15:24
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$67	61	61	+0	open	—	06-06 00:02
israel closes its airspace by june 9	3	$67	34	34	+0	open	—	06-10 05:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$67	67	67	+0	open	—	06-06 07:51
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$67	34	34	+0	open	—	05-30 16:51
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$66	42	42	+0	open	—	06-06 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 22:08:32	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe02d63…
06-24 22:08:32	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0x0132b8…
06-24 22:07:46	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x0785fe…
06-23 09:49:16	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	81	46¢	$37	0xe2cb91…
06-23 08:38:28	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	81	47¢	$38	0xd3e844…
06-20 21:42:07	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0x43fc45…
06-20 19:50:22	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x7dd713…
06-20 15:24:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0xa64c16…
06-20 15:24:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x55d525…
06-20 13:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0xb6dcb3…
06-20 13:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x0f0d82…
06-19 19:17:07	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	42	82¢	$34	0xd9f993…
06-19 15:34:35	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	42	82¢	$34	0x850312…
06-19 13:21:41	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	21	90¢	$19	0xeaf617…
06-19 13:21:41	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x83855e…
06-19 11:05:02	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0xdb5a07…
06-19 11:05:02	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1bc714…
06-19 02:22:29	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xfe5087…
06-19 02:22:29	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	89¢	$32	0x34e79b…
06-18 23:55:37	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0x927b73…
06-18 10:16:29	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	63	9¢	$6	0x0962fa…
06-18 07:49:35	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0xc15061…
06-18 07:49:35	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x9c3920…
06-18 07:49:34	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x8fbcd7…
06-17 21:47:46	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	48	70¢	$34	0x0ca07b…
06-17 16:34:53	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0xaf01ef…
06-17 01:18:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	37	12¢	$4	0x276ce7…
06-17 01:17:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0xa63c86…
06-17 01:17:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0x9ba171…
06-15 18:36:43	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0xdcfa8d…
06-15 18:36:43	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x53e229…
06-15 16:13:10	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x6dd261…
06-13 22:48:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x151543…
06-13 20:38:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	26¢	$29	0xeccdda…
06-13 00:02:10	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xdb022a…
06-12 19:53:54	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0x6d6fe2…
06-12 17:37:03	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x9f8351…
06-10 05:23:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x5e6ad8…
06-10 05:22:49	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa662c9…
06-10 00:13:19	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x64ab45…
06-09 22:04:07	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xdbb894…
06-09 19:39:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x0268b3…
06-08 20:01:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	66	55¢	$36	0x821e6a…
06-08 20:00:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	66	55¢	$36	0x4136e5…
06-07 12:01:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	73	5¢	$3	0x5af017…
06-07 10:48:09	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0xc03013…
06-07 10:48:09	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0xa11cfe…
06-07 10:48:09	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x1b7a22…
06-07 08:32:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	48	69¢	$33	0x4293aa…
06-07 06:03:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x05703c…
06-07 06:02:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x6fed7e…
06-07 06:02:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0x088d01…
06-06 21:14:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	42	79¢	$33	0x53b863…
06-06 16:43:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	42	79¢	$33	0x3b9544…
06-06 15:11:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x1afbd7…
06-06 13:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0xefc6e8…
06-06 07:51:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0x17adae…
06-06 07:50:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	50¢	$27	0xba7118…
06-06 04:33:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x16f3fe…
06-06 04:33:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	50¢	$30	0x562b03…
06-06 00:02:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	51	55¢	$28	0x649e99…
06-06 00:02:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x303c86…
06-05 21:38:42	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	33	56¢	$18	0x406953…
06-05 21:38:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	28	55¢	$15	0xc2472c…
06-05 20:46:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x897cca…
06-05 19:21:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xefbe40…
06-04 15:54:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0x7be5ea…
06-04 12:56:52	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x810e05…
06-04 01:13:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xc5e2b8…
06-04 01:13:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$28	0xb05e52…
06-04 01:13:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x683743…
06-02 15:31:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x7188cf…
06-02 12:00:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0xccd0da…
06-02 02:43:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x4265a4…
05-30 16:51:50	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0xbceec1…
05-30 14:45:08	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x7ae9c4…
05-30 10:49:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0x28a0a8…
05-30 10:49:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	68	44¢	$30	0x21e6f9…
05-30 10:48:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	84	44¢	$37	0x2f6254…
05-30 07:28:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0xd51c8e…
05-30 07:28:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x78d367…
05-29 20:43:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	21¢	$7	0x095063…
05-29 18:50:14	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x783631…
05-29 18:50:14	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	33	22¢	$7	0x2b0c10…
05-29 07:36:20	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	84	4¢	$4	0xab3586…
05-29 05:21:26	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	39	4¢	$2	0x2d60ca…
05-29 05:21:26	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x1c28fa…
05-29 05:21:26	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x16ef2a…
05-28 15:36:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x76bea9…
05-28 15:36:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	41	89¢	$36	0xd23b70…
05-28 13:07:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0x1a0f40…
05-27 21:37:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0x19bd43…
05-27 20:16:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xa0fdc4…
05-26 18:48:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	44	19¢	$8	0xac51e2…
05-26 16:53:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	20¢	$9	0x9f9be6…
05-26 10:54:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x99be06…
05-26 10:45:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x8974d3…
05-26 10:45:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x32cbc7…
05-25 09:16:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xe1ef80…
05-25 09:16:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x28cd95…