Extraneous-Croup — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$53

Hit rate

36.0%

Resolved

Trades

589

lifetime

Volume

$19.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$61

1 position

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-28 14:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

69% 0% $-14

Other

29% 67% $-1

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 173 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+200	$114	30¢	$61	$-53	06-17 17:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	16	$1.0K	650	550	+100	open	—	05-23 22:08
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 12 15	29	$943	1,396	989	+408	open	—	04-12 21:17
will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	12	$922	570	570	+0	open	—	04-12 20:31
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 15 18	24	$736	1,193	500	+693	open	—	04-12 21:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$571	300	300	+0	open	—	03-28 23:34
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$566	500	150	+350	open	—	04-21 20:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$559	300	300	+0	open	—	05-10 21:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$552	450	450	+0	open	—	04-20 16:53
will tisza win at least 100 seats	5	$444	259	259	+0	open	—	04-12 18:36
will fidesz kdnp win 36 40 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	13	$435	288	288	+0	open	—	04-17 17:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	8	$425	350	150	+200	open	—	05-19 21:12
will juliana stratton be the democratic nominee for senate in illinois	37	$406	286	286	+0	open	—	03-18 02:29
will 40 49 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 371	14	$373	368	121	+247	open	—	04-20 21:44
will john cornyn win the first round of the republican senate primary election in texas	10	$363	224	224	+0	open	—	03-04 10:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	9	$355	200	200	+0	open	—	05-19 19:04
will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	7	$343	200	200	+0	open	—	04-12 18:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$324	400	0	+400	open	—	06-14 01:00
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	9	$302	450	400	+50	open	—	03-04 05:45
will james talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the democratic senate primary in texas	5	$298	180	180	+0	open	—	03-04 06:24
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	3	$287	150	150	+0	open	—	03-14 06:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$282	180	180	+0	open	—	05-01 16:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	11	$249	250	250	+0	open	—	04-16 16:25
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 18	19	$229	400	400	+0	open	—	04-12 20:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$227	150	120	+30	Yes	$-14	04-11 19:05
will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	4	$221	120	120	+0	open	—	03-04 04:31
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 19 2026	9	$218	114	114	+0	open	—	04-18 19:33
will switzerland win the mens ice hockey silver medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	02-18 19:41
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on april 19 2026	11	$194	200	110	+90	open	—	04-20 21:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$194	150	150	+0	open	—	04-17 20:39
will james talarico win the texas democratic senate primary by between 10 and 15pt00	3	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	03-04 05:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 14:12:25	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x3fc1ad…
06-28 05:35:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0x8d74b9…
06-28 05:12:26	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0xce73bb…
06-17 17:36:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x34f0a7…
06-17 15:38:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xb2b838…
06-17 15:31:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	83	56¢	$47	0x45bb9f…
06-17 15:27:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0x66698e…
06-17 15:27:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x662f58…
06-17 15:19:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xdb8858…
06-14 19:23:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x14f7b4…
06-14 19:01:07	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x420e78…
06-14 04:22:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	60	40¢	$24	0x70d1d7…
06-14 01:00:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x536b08…
06-14 00:13:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xace216…
06-14 00:13:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xa08494…
06-09 18:20:33	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	204	22¢	$45	0x5fc1ef…
06-09 17:36:00	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	96	22¢	$21	0xc80d0c…
06-09 17:21:57	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	75	23¢	$17	0x6f8c4a…
06-09 17:05:09	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x39f388…
06-09 16:47:48	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x0551ce…
06-09 16:39:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	74	22¢	$16	0xb947cf…
06-09 16:39:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	183	22¢	$40	0x851951…
06-09 16:39:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	183	22¢	$40	0x565cac…
06-09 16:04:58	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x5b9a9e…
06-09 15:35:19	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	80	35¢	$28	0xf5afb7…
06-09 15:27:40	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x0041b9…
06-03 07:36:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	35¢	$22	0x455ad9…
06-02 23:47:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	28¢	$18	0xf00d2d…
06-02 03:13:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x842254…
06-01 17:30:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa3b43b…
06-01 15:49:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x90ab52…
06-01 15:38:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xfff074…
06-01 14:49:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0x3f0ea8…
06-01 14:28:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x9987b5…
06-01 14:19:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x4b2979…
05-31 17:08:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	150	82¢	$123	0xe5e643…
05-31 17:01:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0xade283…
05-31 05:43:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xc351a0…
05-23 22:08:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xa65a5a…
05-21 18:11:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	64	92¢	$59	0x719712…
05-21 18:10:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	71	92¢	$66	0x1f8447…
05-21 18:09:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xb6d661…
05-20 16:48:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x11669b…
05-19 22:18:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	94	96¢	$90	0xbb79db…
05-19 21:12:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	150	91¢	$136	0x8384f5…
05-19 19:04:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	127	95¢	$120	0xdbc1f5…
05-19 18:52:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xb8bb97…
05-19 18:44:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x8910a3…
05-19 18:43:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb3fb26…
05-19 18:41:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$59	0xbf26cf…
05-16 18:15:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x7de438…
05-16 18:15:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2be73f…
05-16 14:03:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x50707e…
05-15 08:35:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xfbf609…
05-14 22:11:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x7d1ae0…
05-13 19:55:26	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x709e43…
05-13 19:50:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x6978b3…
05-13 19:50:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x25292c…
05-12 23:03:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x26b739…
05-12 16:07:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x170bb1…
05-12 15:03:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x22cbae…
05-11 16:54:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xa69f0d…
05-11 05:33:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	41	85¢	$35	0x6bb34f…
05-11 04:55:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xa44216…
05-11 04:53:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xf317b6…
05-10 21:31:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x0ea61a…
05-10 21:23:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x403cb2…
05-10 21:22:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0xeae068…
05-10 21:22:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0xd0c8c4…
05-10 21:21:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x725242…
05-10 19:39:59	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0xe84365…
05-10 19:11:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	120	75¢	$90	0x1a2045…
05-09 02:47:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	80	72¢	$58	0x426907…
05-07 17:23:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$3	0x0fc471…
05-07 08:20:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	70	66¢	$46	0x3ea541…
05-06 19:02:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf8483c…
05-06 18:49:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0xe47989…
05-06 18:41:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x302d16…
05-04 16:48:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x9d15cd…
05-04 16:23:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	64	95¢	$61	0x15f0de…
05-04 16:21:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	29¢	$38	0x6a6853…
05-02 17:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xb77927…
05-01 16:06:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8c7019…
04-29 02:30:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	60	69¢	$41	0x34027e…
04-29 02:29:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x714d12…
04-27 18:50:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x4ee0dd…
04-24 23:15:02	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xbb0023…
04-24 23:14:58	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0xa40b26…
04-24 21:38:24	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x4c79bd…
04-24 21:38:12	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x9e3de6…
04-24 10:42:18	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x5a6c2f…
04-23 20:34:40	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe1859b…
04-23 20:07:46	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8e2f61…
04-23 20:07:46	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7c7aae…
04-23 20:07:42	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9fc6ef…
04-23 20:07:40	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x42ecb2…
04-23 20:07:32	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf7ee5d…
04-23 20:07:32	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xef69a1…
04-23 20:07:32	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd638ea…
04-23 20:07:32	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xcf9465…