Rewarding-Requirement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

395

lifetime

Volume

$1.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 07-01 14:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

47% — —

Politics

32% 100% +$4

Crypto

12% — —

Tech

9% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No		-10	$-8	68¢	$-7	+$1	06-12 07:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$41	28	28	+0	open	—	02-12 13:37
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	6	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-09 12:13
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	02-14 21:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	05-27 02:58
bitcoin up or down february 15 10am et	4	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	02-15 16:15
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	7	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	04-04 07:25
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	4	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	03-04 10:51
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	02-18 03:15
will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 12:56
will khamenei tweet again by march 7 216	7	$19	20	17	+3	open	—	03-06 09:51
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 12:04
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	3	$18	19	18	+1	open	—	04-08 15:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	04-21 08:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 13:02
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	06-07 19:57
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	4	$16	10	25	-15	open	—	06-09 04:14
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	02-11 12:57
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	6	$15	17	17	+0	open	—	03-20 15:06
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	5	$15	100	100	+0	open	—	01-26 12:30
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	03-16 00:06
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	3	$14	11	11	+0	open	—	03-29 12:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	06-19 21:25
will israel strike gaza on february 13 2026	3	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	02-13 01:08
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	2	$12	12	12	+0	open	—	03-04 05:28
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	6	$12	23	12	+11	open	—	05-28 19:29
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$12	14	14	+0	open	—	05-12 19:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	03-08 20:09
will israel strike gaza on february 12 2026	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	02-12 07:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	05-21 15:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-26 17:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 14:30:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x5965f0…
07-01 06:13:22	cs2 mnte nem 2026 07 01	Monte	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xa6f130…
06-27 13:18:25	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953935 615	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xca09b8…
06-22 18:23:19	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 corners team away 4pt5	Over	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xeba030…
06-22 17:39:04	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x55d036…
06-20 15:22:31	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x42d592…
06-19 21:25:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x2405da…
06-18 18:01:47	cs2 furia 9z 2026 06 18	FURIA	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0fad9a…
06-18 15:01:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x74e281…
06-18 12:41:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xd1aabd…
06-16 19:24:23	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xfe4e4a…
06-15 08:33:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x0e30c7…
06-15 08:33:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xe7a064…
06-13 11:18:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x2dee70…
06-12 07:28:30	Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xbe8ac3…
06-09 04:14:01	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xa05a2c…
06-08 06:03:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x2ab777…
06-07 19:57:33	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0x1de61d…
06-05 14:14:18	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x98915b…
06-03 23:06:18	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa5df42…
06-03 20:19:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xe8f5da…
06-03 19:19:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x7460fc…
06-01 17:01:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8bb5cc…
06-01 15:53:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x10985b…
06-01 15:30:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xb17203…
06-01 15:23:59	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc2e6a4…
06-01 15:23:03	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9ad6f9…
06-01 14:50:04	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xb52063…
06-01 14:50:00	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd65332…
06-01 14:48:26	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x978504…
05-30 20:23:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xe72bfc…
05-29 19:01:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xadfbfb…
05-29 18:09:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xdd9318…
05-29 16:31:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x3e53cf…
05-28 19:29:07	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x5ea392…
05-28 16:53:55	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xf19881…
05-27 11:29:57	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xdab263…
05-27 06:51:05	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x8a77b2…
05-27 02:58:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa57114…
05-26 18:30:13	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe3070d…
05-26 17:34:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x4f825c…
05-26 17:32:54	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	33¢	$2	0xf34ae3…
05-26 15:55:34	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x9cbf06…
05-26 14:24:38	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd75e5b…
05-26 07:12:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xc9513a…
05-26 05:34:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xf25f99…
05-26 05:25:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8fd24d…
05-26 05:24:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x93917c…
05-26 05:22:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x888372…
05-25 13:27:46	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6c164a…
05-25 12:04:07	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf69957…
05-25 04:45:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x7f617e…
05-24 15:08:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x9be11f…
05-23 17:44:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x6d80cf…
05-23 13:14:00	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xb3b7e7…
05-22 23:44:46	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7d7767…
05-22 19:35:53	Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)	Team Falcons	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9604b0…
05-21 15:46:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xa7f124…
05-19 17:48:41	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa8d043…
05-19 17:47:20	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd80369…
05-19 17:43:54	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x101ac3…
05-16 16:04:57	Will MrBeast say "America" during his next YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb92481…
05-13 14:46:44	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6a1b4f…
05-12 19:07:33	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0xeea6bb…
05-12 11:05:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xf642ca…
05-11 12:49:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x4186c6…
05-11 07:29:33	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x4e330c…
05-09 17:24:11	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x33c7ff…
05-09 11:19:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x462d92…
05-08 19:05:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xbe8338…
05-06 16:59:25	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xbff759…
05-04 14:26:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x4fea85…
04-29 17:39:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x398382…
04-24 13:02:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xdc291f…
04-23 03:57:56	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x78e1a5…
04-21 18:28:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x4fd1b6…
04-21 18:02:32	rus csk ros 2026 04 21 ros	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x4f6d23…
04-21 15:07:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2e656f…
04-21 14:35:58	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0x099c65…
04-21 14:35:56	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xb1b12c…
04-21 14:18:18	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xd99da9…
04-21 14:17:28	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xed2acb…
04-21 12:20:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xaddd72…
04-21 08:40:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x46b14f…
04-21 07:22:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xfcd23a…
04-20 18:59:28	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x11768a…
04-19 09:30:38	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be less than 31m	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xac4bb4…
04-19 09:30:08	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xee14e4…
04-17 13:57:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x882d50…
04-16 21:17:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x536abb…
04-16 21:15:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x2ee1c6…
04-12 08:14:41	gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	No	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0xf62040…
04-08 22:15:53	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xaaf44f…
04-08 16:29:43	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x85863e…
04-08 15:40:11	gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xfcab95…
04-08 15:07:59	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	18	59¢	$11	0x91873a…
04-08 14:56:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	32	8¢	$3	0x8f741d…
04-08 05:57:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x1241d7…
04-08 00:14:09	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x7dc022…
04-07 20:39:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x6bb020…