Secret-Bolero-Injury — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.35K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.56K

Hit rate

94.4%

Resolved

Trades

107

lifetime

Volume

$29.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$273

Open exposure

$13.5K

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 10-29 02:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

84% 46% +$3,692

Politics

16% 75% -$345

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+11,125	$9,548	88¢	$9.8K	+$298	10-14 16:13
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	+3,371	$1,719	86¢	$2.9K	+$1,163	08-18 19:29
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	+2,002	$626	36¢	$721	+$95	10-29 02:30
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+23	$17	81¢	$19	+$2	10-14 15:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	7	$9.5K	11,125	0	+11,125	open	—	10-14 16:13
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	1	$4.2K	5,555	0	+5,555	No	+$1,355	07-15 15:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$4.1K	6,357	774	+5,583	No	+$1,697	06-18 22:45
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$2.9K	1,573	1,573	+0	open	—	10-28 00:36
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	10	$1.7K	3,371	0	+3,371	open	—	08-18 19:29
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	1	$1.7K	2,093	0	+2,093	open	—	10-28 15:36
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$1.1K	539	539	+0	No	+$4	08-18 19:23
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$1.0K	639	639	+0	Yes	+$206	10-25 23:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	4	$796	437	437	+0	No	+$71	06-18 21:08
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	2	$626	2,002	0	+2,002	open	—	10-29 02:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$617	774	774	+0	Yes	-$608	06-16 14:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	15	$182	479	26	+453	No	+$289	06-16 14:50
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by december 31 20260728195714929	1	$117	418	0	+418	Yes	+$301	10-14 15:31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	1	$105	144	0	+144	Yes	+$38	06-01 20:41
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	1	$98	100	0	+100	open	—	10-27 04:33
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by October 31?	2	$89	91	0	+91	open	—	10-08 22:38
pete hegseth impeached by june 30 2027	1	$79	190	0	+190	open	—	10-14 15:41
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$63	82	0	+82	Yes	+$19	07-28 15:20
pete hegseth impeached by march 31 2027	1	$56	174	0	+174	open	—	10-14 15:27
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	4	$30	42	42	+0	Yes	-$1	05-27 01:11
will fisa section 702 be reauthorized by july 31 20260612193737259	1	$21	41	0	+41	No	-$21	06-18 21:15
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$17	23	0	+23	open	—	10-14 15:46
Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	2	$13	93	0	+93	open	—	10-28 18:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	2	$11	16	16	+0	Yes	$0	05-27 00:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$8	16	16	+0	No	$0	05-27 00:35
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?	4	$7	42	42	+0	Yes	-$1	05-27 01:11
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	2	$6	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-27 00:25
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by October 31?	1	$1	89	0	+89	open	—	10-08 22:38
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	1	$1	304	0	+304	open	—	10-27 04:33
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?	1	$1	110	0	+110	No	-$1	05-22 22:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 02:30:19	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	368	37¢	$135	0x23a45c…
10-29 01:33:52	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,635	30¢	$490	0xa60a78…
10-28 18:00:07	Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	Yes	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x955212…
10-28 15:36:04	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	BUY	2,093	82¢	$1,714	0x072df1…
10-28 00:36:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,573	98¢	$1,548	0x6a7951…
10-27 20:36:57	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	966	83¢	$802	0x786537…
10-27 20:24:05	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xfd049c…
10-27 20:07:42	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	576	87¢	$500	0x65fcd2…
10-27 04:33:29	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	304	0¢	$1	0x9d8e09…
10-27 04:33:27	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc5a608…
10-25 23:47:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	639	98¢	$625	0x8c6c03…
10-25 22:49:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	107	65¢	$69	0xf1a6fd…
10-25 22:37:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xa210b9…
10-25 22:23:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x1e58ff…
10-25 22:16:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x7baa2b…
10-25 22:10:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x55bacc…
10-14 16:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	5,862	87¢	$5,100	0x990f36…
10-14 15:57:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	910	87¢	$792	0xf8751b…
10-14 15:56:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x48e2a7…
10-14 15:52:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x6e0507…
10-14 15:50:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xa6b5b8…
10-14 15:46:58	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	71¢	$17	0x269f72…
10-14 15:44:27	Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	No	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0x78b340…
10-14 15:41:58	pete hegseth impeached by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	190	41¢	$79	0xb45fd8…
10-14 15:31:06	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by december 31 20260728195714929	Yes	BUY	418	28¢	$117	0xe103ba…
10-14 15:27:45	pete hegseth impeached by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	174	32¢	$56	0xd1e1cc…
10-08 22:38:24	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x40b38a…
10-08 22:38:21	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by October 31?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x4676cd…
10-08 22:16:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0xdc6c96…
10-08 16:17:08	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by October 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xac59ee…
08-18 19:43:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	353	64¢	$226	0x2a8282…
08-18 19:29:46	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	209	86¢	$180	0x23e131…
08-18 19:23:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	539	100¢	$539	0x18477b…
08-07 03:03:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	539	99¢	$535	0xfbe284…
07-28 15:20:56	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	82	77¢	$63	0xd2f367…
07-15 15:41:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	5,555	76¢	$4,200	0x659d36…
06-18 22:45:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	395	86¢	$340	0x16a54e…
06-18 21:15:37	will fisa section 702 be reauthorized by july 31 20260612193737259	Yes	BUY	41	52¢	$21	0xf127d4…
06-18 21:08:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	428	100¢	$426	0x8844cf…
06-17 22:59:35	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	317	63¢	$199	0xa40a1e…
06-16 14:50:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	132	40¢	$53	0xa94a8e…
06-16 14:39:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	774	1¢	$5	0x3fc228…
06-16 14:39:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	774	16¢	$124	0xee79ca…
06-12 14:43:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	165	72¢	$119	0x3788f1…
06-12 14:43:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	165	16¢	$26	0x466435…
06-10 14:53:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	108	83¢	$90	0xd6e8b1…
06-10 14:53:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	109	9¢	$10	0x163521…
06-09 14:19:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$404	0x81e155…
06-09 14:19:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x068d90…
06-02 01:42:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	241	79¢	$190	0xcb6e53…
06-02 01:25:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	297	79¢	$235	0xc5693a…
06-01 23:35:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,266	79¢	$1,000	0x0274f8…
06-01 23:12:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	633	79¢	$500	0xf78f0f…
06-01 20:41:21	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	144	73¢	$105	0xead6da…
06-01 19:28:03	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	312	57¢	$179	0x08730e…
06-01 19:13:47	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	206	50¢	$103	0xb44e4d…
06-01 19:12:39	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	786	38¢	$300	0xa6f57c…
05-27 03:03:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	428	83¢	$355	0x412f46…
05-27 02:46:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xe8e7d6…
05-27 02:46:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xdd778c…
05-27 01:11:49	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?	No	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0x0cba1a…
05-27 01:11:46	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	35¢	$7	0xdbe37a…
05-27 00:49:39	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x9c9aa5…
05-27 00:49:38	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?	No	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x12cc23…
05-27 00:35:55	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?	No	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0xd038e8…
05-27 00:35:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0xb7f922…
05-27 00:35:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	16	23¢	$4	0x6ca242…
05-27 00:35:38	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	35¢	$7	0x3570e1…
05-27 00:25:16	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x14a9a7…
05-27 00:25:15	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x18d6e1…
05-27 00:25:11	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?	No	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x97278a…
05-27 00:25:11	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x7c9fe3…
05-27 00:24:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0xad1505…
05-27 00:24:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0xab3c23…
05-26 16:51:06	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x7025a1…
05-26 16:51:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xfcb71f…
05-26 16:51:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xf094da…
05-26 16:51:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	61¢	$5	0xfd1ee1…
05-26 16:40:36	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x0d22f9…
05-26 16:40:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x676fb0…
05-26 16:26:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xf1c6c0…
05-26 16:26:26	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x728f51…
05-26 16:19:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xd3bc3d…
05-26 16:12:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x20e1bb…
05-26 16:01:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x0d1da6…
05-26 16:01:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xed2a7e…
05-26 15:52:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xc7b85d…
05-26 15:52:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xab5acd…
05-26 15:47:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xc1edc0…
05-26 15:47:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0x39a49c…
05-26 02:20:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x3ce8a8…
05-26 02:10:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x4e39c0…
05-26 01:29:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x44b22d…
05-25 22:10:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x65d7e9…
05-25 21:48:49	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	BUY	893	50¢	$446	0x191339…
05-25 21:00:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	258	33¢	$85	0xd4b9b2…
05-25 20:43:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x405f62…
05-25 20:31:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	32¢	$3	0x2f1d79…
05-25 20:29:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x00d4a0…
05-25 20:22:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x4a5d3a…