Defiant-Marathon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$237

Unrealized P&L

+$281

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

Trades

244

lifetime

Volume

$17.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$1.62K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-09 09:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 54% -$369

Other

11% 50% +$132

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,300	$1,014	94¢	$1.2K	+$201	05-29 01:57
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	No	+200	$104	83¢	$166	+$62	10-09 09:05
will hyperliquid reach 150 by december 31 2026	No	+150	$130	95¢	$142	+$12	10-01 06:01
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	+102	$88	92¢	$94	+$6	10-01 05:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16?	3	$1.3K	1,000	500	+500	No	+$138	05-15 05:31
ethereum above 2100 on february 7	9	$1.1K	602	602	+0	No	+$66	02-07 08:57
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	3	$1.0K	600	600	+0	No	+$145	09-30 19:12
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,300	0	+1,300	open	—	05-29 01:57
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	2	$720	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$720	04-02 13:50
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	5	$634	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$366	01-19 08:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	3	$549	300	300	+0	open	—	05-13 19:33
will ethereum reach 2200 in march 2026	1	$540	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$540	03-01 22:13
ethereum above 3000 on january 28	2	$511	310	310	+0	No	+$108	01-28 17:25
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	25	$510	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$510	04-12 17:05
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	2	$495	278	278	+0	No	+$61	05-31 10:13
ethereum above 2100 on april 3	5	$480	500	0	+500	No	+$20	04-03 10:47
ethereum above 2200 on february 7	1	$469	475	0	+475	No	+$6	02-07 08:52
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	1	$400	409	0	+409	No	+$9	02-28 09:09
will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026	1	$390	500	0	+500	No	+$110	02-02 09:22
ethereum above 2300 on february 10	2	$304	320	0	+320	No	+$16	02-09 17:53
will ethereum reach 3000 in february 2026	6	$269	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$9	02-03 07:03
ethereum above 2100 on february 8	7	$231	235	195	+40	No	+$15	02-08 16:48
will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	1	$220	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$780	03-18 09:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 2?	2	$215	110	110	+0	Yes	+$4	10-02 15:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2?	2	$211	110	110	+0	No	+$9	10-02 15:52
will ethereum dip to 2200 in february 2026	1	$210	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$210	02-01 16:50
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	4	$210	382	382	+0	70k	-$103	05-28 06:04
ethereum above 2100 on april 4	1	$200	225	0	+225	No	+$25	04-03 16:16
ethereum above 3000 on january 23	3	$178	100	100	+0	No	+$22	01-23 18:15
ethereum above 2000 on february 16	3	$164	220	70	+150	No	+$112	02-16 14:27
ethereum above 3100 on january 31	2	$152	200	0	+200	No	+$48	01-28 17:39
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?	1	$150	500	0	+500	No	+$350	06-01 20:04
ethereum above 2500 on february 8	1	$149	620	0	+620	No	-$149	02-01 18:52
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	3	$140	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$140	06-01 19:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 09:05:31	Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x969760…
10-02 16:03:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xc4ee7b…
10-02 15:58:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 2?	Yes	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x408cdf…
10-02 15:52:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x6c4fa9…
10-02 11:39:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0x5f342e…
10-02 11:38:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2?	No	BUY	110	92¢	$101	0xe1e2b4…
10-01 06:01:29	will hyperliquid reach 150 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0xdacebb…
10-01 05:58:00	Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	BUY	102	86¢	$88	0x395118…
10-01 05:55:06	ethereum above 2700 on october 1 2026	Yes	BUY	140	70¢	$98	0x037c96…
09-30 19:12:38	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x88fd9d…
09-30 15:22:50	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$296	0x9a8ec5…
07-11 12:04:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x252716…
07-11 12:04:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	37	15¢	$6	0x0f89b9…
07-11 12:02:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x5f8864…
07-11 12:00:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x07e13f…
07-11 09:52:04	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	600	75¢	$450	0xfcce57…
07-11 09:40:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x56a7db…
07-11 09:27:16	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	52	24¢	$13	0x000324…
06-01 20:04:37	Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?	No	BUY	500	30¢	$150	0x7de3ba…
06-01 19:29:37	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	BUY	754	14¢	$106	0x98fbb5…
06-01 19:18:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	BUY	171	14¢	$24	0x856ee8…
06-01 19:06:40	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	BUY	74	14¢	$10	0x745e2e…
05-31 10:23:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x219f20…
05-31 10:23:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x62dfbd…
05-31 10:13:31	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	278	100¢	$278	0xb273a3…
05-29 01:57:04	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	264	78¢	$206	0xd498eb…
05-28 07:15:40	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	78¢	$82	0x489c31…
05-28 06:32:00	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	931	78¢	$726	0x9dc637…
05-28 06:04:16	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	90k	SELL	382	14¢	$53	0x8c4f6b…
05-17 13:14:34	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	90k	BUY	38	41¢	$16	0x7089c3…
05-17 10:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	123	34¢	$42	0x633555…
05-17 10:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x4e4f4f…
05-17 10:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x49e3dd…
05-17 10:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x8f0be3…
05-17 10:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x0cb1ea…
05-17 10:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x8178ca…
05-17 10:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xfe9f30…
05-17 10:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xb04ab3…
05-17 10:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x31188b…
05-17 10:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x053367…
05-17 10:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x3b98b1…
05-17 10:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x4da517…
05-17 10:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	39¢	$19	0xf3bf11…
05-17 10:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x611040…
05-17 08:35:18	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	90k	BUY	339	41¢	$139	0xaa5686…
05-17 06:18:29	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	90k	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x48a422…
05-15 14:42:20	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x0092e4…
05-15 05:31:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0x9e7ebf…
05-13 19:33:30	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	300	92¢	$276	0x4e0fe9…
05-13 12:22:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16?	No	SELL	300	87¢	$261	0xfe36da…
05-13 11:53:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?	No	SELL	79	98¢	$77	0xd52955…
05-13 09:14:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16?	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0xcad58c…
05-12 10:28:46	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	278	78¢	$217	0x84b6cf…
05-12 09:58:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x1753a8…
05-12 09:57:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	71	77¢	$54	0xb94d15…
05-11 14:08:29	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	49	91¢	$44	0xc36f79…
05-11 14:08:29	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	251	91¢	$229	0x464ec7…
04-22 15:44:32	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0x6729b7…
04-22 15:40:46	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$16	0xad8780…
04-12 17:05:19	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	115	51¢	$59	0x2076f5…
04-12 17:01:59	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x9b574e…
04-12 17:01:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	180	51¢	$92	0xa79800…
04-12 16:57:45	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x083d71…
04-12 16:52:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x13a711…
04-12 16:51:57	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x704ea1…
04-12 16:51:51	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xb46765…
04-12 16:51:19	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x891607…
04-12 16:51:11	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xb2130d…
04-12 16:50:29	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x2d7f1e…
04-12 16:50:27	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x034d71…
04-12 16:50:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x2adf63…
04-12 16:50:21	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xc05d33…
04-12 16:50:19	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x1afb55…
04-12 16:48:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xc9fa35…
04-12 16:48:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x5943dd…
04-12 16:47:39	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xdafadc…
04-12 16:45:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x63ace4…
04-12 16:45:37	ethereum above 2100 on april 13	No	BUY	500	13¢	$66	0x2c0b48…
04-12 16:45:31	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x51a477…
04-12 16:45:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xf9608a…
04-12 16:45:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xb21aa0…
04-12 16:45:15	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x388eed…
04-12 16:45:13	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xf8f824…
04-12 16:45:13	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x09d983…
04-12 16:41:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?	No	BUY	297	51¢	$151	0xc40430…
04-03 16:16:09	ethereum above 2100 on april 4	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x50791f…
04-03 10:47:07	ethereum above 2100 on april 3	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xc680ca…
04-03 10:44:07	ethereum above 2100 on april 3	No	BUY	47	96¢	$45	0x82490a…
04-03 10:42:29	ethereum above 2100 on april 3	No	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0x27d641…
04-03 10:36:53	ethereum above 2100 on april 3	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x27f606…
04-03 10:36:41	ethereum above 2100 on april 3	No	BUY	373	96¢	$358	0xd98cbf…
04-02 13:50:19	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	No	BUY	1,000	36¢	$360	0x15d25c…
04-02 13:50:01	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	No	BUY	1,000	36¢	$360	0xe1e7c5…
03-19 20:32:57	ethereum above 2000 on march 23	No	BUY	300	18¢	$54	0x40e087…
03-18 09:37:13	ethereum above 2200 on march 19	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xe75973…
03-18 09:19:41	will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	No	BUY	1,000	22¢	$220	0x03b52b…
03-13 23:25:57	ethereum above 2000 on march 14	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x47a37b…
03-13 22:38:13	ethereum above 2100 on march 14	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xb12416…
03-13 22:37:41	ethereum above 2000 on march 14	No	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x08acf7…
03-13 16:47:31	ethereum above 2100 on march 16	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x9ced61…