Improbable-Detour — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

147 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$175

$2.81K lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-06 02:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 100% +$5

Other

40% 100% +$4

Politics

5% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-10 17:01
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	2	$43	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-21 15:06
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	2	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	07-22 23:13
bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	2	$39	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	08-11 20:49
russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	09-30 07:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	10-07 03:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5?	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	11-04 15:22
bitcoin above 68k on july 24 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	07-24 01:04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	08-22 04:09
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	07-27 16:46
ethereum above 2200 on april 23	1	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	04-23 08:36
will ethereum dip to 1800 in january 2026 971	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	01-06 01:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	06-01 12:31
bitcoin above 70k on april 20	1	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	04-20 11:37
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	07-28 04:50
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-27 06:23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	09-16 20:14
bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	07-15 14:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-20 03:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	06-25 10:20
bitcoin above 56k on july 10 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	07-08 18:11
highest temperature in denver on april 22 2026 64forhigher	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	04-21 19:22
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-17 21:16
ethereum above 1400 on july 1 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	07-01 00:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 20?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	10-20 20:01
will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-29 21:13
bitcoin above 60k on july 13 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	07-12 22:19
will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-04 05:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 10?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-10 07:10
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-02 12:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 02:49:55	Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc8aa74…
11-04 15:22:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x3892b0…
11-01 20:24:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xeea570…
10-30 13:46:52	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x46d53e…
10-29 01:36:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe0e448…
10-24 02:47:30	Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1f3ac9…
10-20 20:01:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x0918c4…
10-19 22:20:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x31e276…
10-17 21:28:54	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf0446b…
10-10 19:19:46	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x827832…
10-07 03:18:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x076c66…
10-06 02:38:27	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x29071e…
09-30 11:22:53	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf0d9a2…
09-30 07:43:44	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xdfb1c2…
09-26 06:43:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 21-27?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6b4edb…
09-25 02:21:51	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9cf390…
09-21 00:41:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xb1eeb8…
09-18 08:26:34	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 14-20?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0x3b7e43…
09-16 20:14:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2f69d8…
09-16 17:20:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8ce427…
09-13 00:16:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 14?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1c99fc…
09-06 02:02:43	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x0175e6…
09-04 06:59:04	Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x594ce1…
09-04 00:15:31	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x13ce7e…
08-29 15:30:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xfe2ace…
08-26 20:27:06	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x87f3d3…
08-22 20:51:22	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7c33ad…
08-22 04:09:13	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3396ce…
08-17 05:08:33	bitcoin above 68k on august 18 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x40f79f…
08-11 20:49:06	bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd653d8…
08-11 13:08:43	bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe7a8f3…
08-09 17:27:52	will bitcoin reach 68k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf5b38e…
08-06 18:14:08	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x844a18…
07-29 21:13:54	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7df283…
07-28 04:50:30	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xfaed9a…
07-27 16:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x093ff5…
07-24 01:04:49	bitcoin above 68k on july 24 2026	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x0d7556…
07-22 23:13:10	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x953ca3…
07-20 16:58:57	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc70834…
07-16 08:22:46	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 taylor montgomery	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd794bd…
07-15 14:54:47	bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x8194f1…
07-13 10:36:31	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6b5745…
07-12 22:19:53	bitcoin above 60k on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x8f1bc2…
07-11 04:57:43	ethereum above 1700 on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb7919e…
07-10 23:44:02	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xfb0a88…
07-10 07:10:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 10?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x858ccf…
07-08 18:11:14	bitcoin above 56k on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x24deaa…
07-06 15:14:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 6?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1b111c…
07-04 05:00:11	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe62c69…
07-03 21:56:58	Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf1cd37…
07-03 15:50:56	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4d02ce…
07-02 12:46:56	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2ab607…
07-01 13:17:23	ethereum above 1500 on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x608a77…
07-01 00:37:17	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x78f83d…
07-01 00:25:04	ethereum above 1400 on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4e55b9…
06-25 10:20:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x78d6d4…
06-25 06:32:16	ethereum above 1800 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xfda866…
06-23 02:32:29	bitcoin above 68k on june 23 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc6ed7e…
06-22 13:04:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x175097…
06-22 04:10:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x22e4b9…
06-21 18:38:26	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9ba467…
06-21 12:08:13	bitcoin above 66k on june 21 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5616ef…
06-02 23:12:34	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7a5a7a…
06-02 04:39:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x87e73c…
06-01 12:31:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xde6559…
05-30 20:55:26	Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd8f08a…
05-30 08:44:32	Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x282d51…
05-29 03:21:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf0d06c…
05-28 07:59:00	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xaef64d…
05-28 03:13:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8d3fa3…
05-27 06:23:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x59201c…
05-26 17:17:07	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb47b00…
05-26 08:55:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6016db…
05-26 03:59:07	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x996ced…
05-25 13:55:18	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x398d05…
05-25 05:16:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xf32af9…
05-23 18:36:42	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1755b4…
05-23 13:28:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x03630a…
05-23 03:29:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x84d1fa…
05-22 20:41:43	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf3d869…
05-22 05:31:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x039bcc…
05-21 21:27:12	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x7d3fd7…
05-20 20:14:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb9b085…
05-20 03:31:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf445f8…
05-18 21:52:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x31206a…
05-18 14:30:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x43475c…
05-18 05:46:46	Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xcb1780…
05-17 21:16:12	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x1b585c…
05-17 15:43:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb8f86b…
05-16 14:11:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd0016f…
05-15 06:51:33	Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7d4987…
05-13 23:51:27	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0ab666…
05-13 11:46:04	Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe04faa…
05-13 11:26:47	Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x4f1f58…
05-12 05:40:50	Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9bf361…
05-11 14:10:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x421ea0…
05-10 03:06:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7df853…
05-09 16:20:08	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd7ebd0…
05-09 03:38:55	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf5a7c3…
05-06 06:45:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf89d8a…