Ajar-Cartilage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.67K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$142.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$954

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-13 17:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

62% 0% $-203

Politics

38% 0% $-1,470

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$29.0K	16,106	16,106	+0	open	—	04-21 17:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$25.8K	15,599	15,340	+259	open	—	06-15 06:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$16.4K	9,105	9,105	+0	open	—	05-06 09:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$11.9K	6,347	11,141	-4,794	open	—	06-15 04:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$9.0K	14,001	4,450	+9,551	open	—	05-13 08:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$8.3K	4,578	4,578	+0	open	—	05-05 15:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$7.1K	6,750	16,286	-9,536	open	—	06-13 17:55
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	15	$5.6K	58,659	5,866	+52,793	open	—	04-28 12:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$5.1K	7,068	3,573	+3,495	open	—	06-16 15:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$3.9K	0	5,610	-5,610	open	—	06-08 11:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$3.1K	3,769	3,769	+0	open	—	04-20 10:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.8K	5,378	1,518	+3,861	open	—	06-13 17:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	6	$1.9K	3,300	1,852	+1,448	open	—	05-14 18:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	6	$1.8K	5,709	727	+4,982	open	—	05-06 20:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$1.3K	2,473	2,473	+0	open	—	04-20 21:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$1.2K	9,230	0	+9,230	No	$-1,240	05-06 20:28
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.1K	0	1,411	-1,411	open	—	07-13 17:06
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	2	$831	2,067	2,067	+0	open	—	04-22 21:06
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$800	2,075	0	+2,075	open	—	05-12 15:31
fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 3pt5	1	$500	3,571	0	+3,571	open	—	06-24 22:03
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	4	$491	24,352	84	+24,268	open	—	04-29 12:18
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	2	$400	4,112	0	+4,112	open	—	05-13 09:12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$386	1,325	806	+519	open	—	05-05 16:46
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?	2	$336	250	250	+0	open	—	05-19 20:03
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	1	$330	551	0	+551	open	—	01-30 11:42
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$290	1,115	0	+1,115	open	—	05-14 10:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$250	1,596	0	+1,596	open	—	05-08 08:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$230	3,621	0	+3,621	No	$-230	05-06 13:12
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	1	$150	789	0	+789	open	—	06-10 14:35
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$150	1,805	0	+1,805	Yes	$-150	05-01 16:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 17:06:59	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	819	75¢	$614	0x4668f9…
07-13 12:09:10	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x6019aa…
07-13 03:59:16	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	267	75¢	$200	0xf0c2ad…
07-13 01:24:04	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0x45e08c…
07-12 11:21:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,266	2¢	$28	0x136b93…
07-12 11:21:08	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	75¢	$81	0x841dbb…
07-07 20:48:53	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 spread home 1pt5	Switzerland	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0x1386ce…
06-24 22:03:46	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 3pt5	Morocco	BUY	3,571	14¢	$500	0x9ebf71…
06-16 15:21:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	3,567	44¢	$1,569	0x37f04a…
06-15 21:27:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0x5d61fd…
06-15 06:38:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	7,068	50¢	$3,500	0x1e53ea…
06-15 06:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,574	85¢	$3,881	0x378f12…
06-15 04:22:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9,731	87¢	$8,500	0xb62e22…
06-15 04:21:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	9,562	69¢	$6,601	0xb3989e…
06-14 09:56:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,579	22¢	$347	0xcaaa46…
06-13 17:55:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,778	52¢	$931	0xd08aa8…
06-13 17:55:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,953	81¢	$4,010	0xa22a1b…
06-13 17:54:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,378	32¢	$1,700	0x9e6059…
06-13 17:52:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,518	71¢	$1,081	0x26f0bf…
06-13 17:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,769	78¢	$2,174	0xbcee57…
06-13 17:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,577	79¢	$2,826	0x83988a…
06-13 17:51:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,814	84¢	$4,911	0x3255af…
06-12 16:20:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,778	45¢	$800	0x99dc53…
06-12 16:20:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,868	78¢	$3,000	0xe3f0e8…
06-10 14:36:36	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,948	3¢	$100	0x5fc045…
06-10 14:35:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	789	19¢	$150	0x14752c…
06-10 14:34:49	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	BUY	2,084	5¢	$100	0xdb1d3f…
06-10 14:33:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	14,509	27¢	$3,911	0xdf4e1a…
06-08 13:02:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	75¢	$1,500	0xcbb7e5…
06-08 13:02:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4,973	30¢	$1,500	0xadd037…
06-08 11:49:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	2,749	70¢	$1,924	0x2cb688…
06-08 11:46:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	2,861	70¢	$2,003	0x4edc8f…
05-27 19:41:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x239189…
05-27 12:02:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	14,354	1¢	$100	0x41fa13…
05-19 20:03:14	Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	250	95¢	$236	0x238c66…
05-14 18:23:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xb6b890…
05-14 10:40:49	Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?	No	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x453b79…
05-14 10:34:41	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	538	26¢	$140	0x157013…
05-14 10:34:06	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	577	26¢	$150	0x953f8a…
05-13 15:37:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,048	24¢	$250	0x0c87ab…
05-13 09:12:09	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	2,474	10¢	$250	0x97915f…
05-13 09:11:43	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1,637	9¢	$150	0xa89c23…
05-13 09:09:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x18baeb…
05-13 09:08:29	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xc4d8b3…
05-13 08:26:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xde4f87…
05-12 15:31:29	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,004	25¢	$250	0xe1ac3f…
05-12 12:59:38	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	BUY	777	4¢	$30	0x01704d…
05-08 08:51:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,596	16¢	$250	0x1dd9ad…
05-06 20:31:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,503	32¢	$800	0xa9043f…
05-06 20:29:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0xb3a7d6…
05-06 20:28:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,540	6¢	$100	0x976591…
05-06 20:27:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x8918cc…
05-06 20:22:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0x6d3c4f…
05-06 20:14:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,535	7¢	$100	0xa1b76a…
05-06 19:23:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,813	28¢	$500	0x57e05a…
05-06 13:12:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	2,024	5¢	$100	0xd04418…
05-06 13:09:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	543	7¢	$40	0x1c9635…
05-06 12:22:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1,064	5¢	$50	0x973cbc…
05-06 12:04:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	727	34¢	$251	0xfb818b…
05-06 12:03:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	694	57¢	$394	0xdfcdab…
05-06 12:02:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	694	55¢	$383	0xc42517…
05-06 12:02:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	463	57¢	$265	0xf0babb…
05-06 11:08:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,968	18¢	$900	0x736194…
05-06 10:54:20	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xdf303b…
05-06 10:40:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	646	15¢	$100	0xe6146d…
05-06 09:14:42	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0x7d3961…
05-06 09:00:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	6,829	93¢	$6,351	0x62e4ef…
05-05 21:00:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	533	15¢	$80	0x13732b…
05-05 16:46:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	408	25¢	$100	0x707547…
05-05 15:42:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x0b8aad…
05-05 15:33:42	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	987	51¢	$500	0x26b024…
05-05 15:32:58	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	806	5¢	$36	0xcd6034…
05-05 15:19:54	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	806	19¢	$150	0xbc12c2…
05-05 15:19:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xa7f879…
05-05 15:06:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	4,578	98¢	$4,482	0xfd5484…
05-04 21:35:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,852	27¢	$500	0xb4c52f…
05-04 21:27:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	727	11¢	$80	0x577bbb…
05-04 21:25:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xc93b00…
05-03 19:11:22	Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xe85b24…
05-01 21:49:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	2,273	22¢	$500	0x6933b1…
05-01 16:21:52	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	1,805	8¢	$150	0x067ef6…
05-01 15:32:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,399	21¢	$300	0xe933b8…
04-29 15:32:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0xdec75e…
04-29 13:22:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x1e7ba5…
04-29 12:18:54	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	84	97¢	$81	0xb77493…
04-29 08:48:16	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,447	1¢	$100	0x50e74e…
04-29 08:48:06	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15,737	1¢	$150	0xaa4a31…
04-28 21:47:26	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	168	95¢	$160	0x4c569e…
04-28 21:25:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x3fac03…
04-28 14:32:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,235	81¢	$1,000	0x92699e…
04-28 12:32:10	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	5,866	0¢	$6	0x155578…
04-28 10:14:06	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x615561…
04-28 07:18:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$20	0xb2be71…
04-27 21:34:32	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	3,750	0¢	$15	0x690027…
04-27 21:13:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	11,140	0¢	$50	0x86a428…
04-27 21:00:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	16,667	0¢	$50	0x1c412d…
04-27 20:56:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0x2ca78b…
04-27 20:56:24	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x6ceaa7…
04-27 18:10:10	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x5c8d74…
04-27 18:08:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x883526…