Offensive-Farm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$241

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

42.0%

Resolved

805

Trades

2,428

lifetime

Volume

$5.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 09-17 06:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Other

57% 41% -$176

Politics

25% 30% -$16

Sports

17% 45% -$45

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	94¢	$0	$0	06-18 15:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	23	$70	50	50	+0	Yes	-$1	06-08 19:55
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	21	$58	55	54	+0	Yes	+$5	06-18 18:47
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	28	$46	174	174	+0	No	-$4	06-25 21:42
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	19	$43	41	41	+0	Yes	+$5	06-20 17:24
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	15	$37	60	60	+0	No	-$1	04-23 04:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	16	$36	81	81	-0	Yes	-$1	06-09 01:15
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	12	$33	50	50	+0	No	-$2	04-23 04:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	13	$32	48	43	+5	Yes	+$5	06-13 13:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$31	39	39	+0	No	$0	04-22 13:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	13	$29	35	35	+0	No	+$2	04-21 13:17
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	10	$28	30	30	+0	Yes	+$2	06-17 15:57
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	7	$27	60	60	+0	No	+$14	06-19 03:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$26	27	27	+0	No	-$2	06-23 13:48
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	15	$26	51	43	+8	No	-$1	06-19 00:14
starmer out by june 22 2026	8	$25	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	06-21 12:43
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	8	$23	21	21	+0	Yes	+$2	06-05 07:58
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry	3	$22	20	15	+5	Diane Parry	+$8	05-28 16:08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	7	$21	19	19	+0	Yes	-$1	06-11 18:48
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	11	$21	62	62	+0	No	-$2	06-21 17:43
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	7	$21	27	27	+0	Golden Knights	+$3	06-03 02:07
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	8	$20	16	16	+0	Yes	-$1	06-19 15:07
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$19	13	13	+0	No	+$0	06-30 07:35
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	5	$19	13	13	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 02:36
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$19	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	04-22 19:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$19	15	15	+0	Yes	$0	06-10 07:45
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic	4	$18	20	10	+10	Nuno Borges	+$2	05-27 16:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	5	$17	15	15	+0	No	-$2	04-23 04:10
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	6	$17	17	17	+0	Yes	-$1	06-30 07:35
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	4	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$4	06-29 13:22
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	6	$16	17	17	+0	No	-$1	04-23 04:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 06:15:13	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0xfdfd8c…
07-01 03:20:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x960ed0…
06-30 08:04:28	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	80¢	$3	0xf1bcea…
06-30 07:36:17	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5008ef…
06-30 07:36:14	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9f10e3…
06-30 07:36:11	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xdb8035…
06-30 07:36:04	Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xb123e7…
06-30 07:36:01	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x3262e5…
06-30 07:35:53	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xc66845…
06-30 07:35:49	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xbea59c…
06-30 07:35:43	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xe609bf…
06-30 07:35:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x3140a1…
06-30 07:35:34	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x580293…
06-30 07:35:31	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x5c4bb6…
06-30 07:35:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xf7580d…
06-30 07:35:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x1b6888…
06-30 07:35:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0xf91c44…
06-30 07:35:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x4c81c4…
06-30 07:35:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x5d0f91…
06-30 07:35:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x262019…
06-30 07:35:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0xa0f788…
06-30 07:35:07	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x680420…
06-30 07:35:02	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa068fb…
06-30 07:34:58	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xa9e832…
06-30 07:34:55	will russia enter myrne by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0xf3bbdb…
06-30 07:34:49	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xbc7e5a…
06-30 07:34:46	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xfdbceb…
06-30 07:34:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x705529…
06-30 07:34:34	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	SELL	13	42¢	$5	0xfb0fde…
06-30 07:34:31	Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0xe9d315…
06-30 07:34:20	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xe068ca…
06-30 07:34:14	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0x3456f9…
06-30 07:34:02	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x8f5df1…
06-30 07:34:01	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0xc7a453…
06-30 07:33:58	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0xec298f…
06-30 07:33:47	Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	3¢	$5	0xd6df44…
06-29 13:22:50	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9d3992…
06-29 13:08:05	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe6b19a…
06-29 01:32:29	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	11¢	$3	0x0a34a2…
06-27 10:05:34	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xac9935…
06-27 10:02:50	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xc1578c…
06-27 06:54:23	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x33d163…
06-27 06:54:20	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7e0dc8…
06-27 06:48:10	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x49c131…
06-26 19:14:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x63f41d…
06-26 18:53:17	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x45edf8…
06-25 22:08:43	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x97235b…
06-25 21:42:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xa9e60c…
06-25 21:29:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xd25a6a…
06-25 21:16:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x978b27…
06-25 01:23:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8a9acc…
06-25 00:35:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xeecb27…
06-24 20:00:01	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x8b0dd5…
06-24 19:47:08	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x60badc…
06-24 18:43:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x71dddd…
06-24 16:48:08	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x04a63f…
06-23 22:38:22	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfc39b2…
06-23 21:12:35	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x036a39…
06-23 20:35:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x46bbe3…
06-23 19:33:02	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xfb303c…
06-23 16:08:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xb38be8…
06-23 15:56:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	45	5¢	$2	0x0b8fbf…
06-23 15:42:58	Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x25f8bc…
06-23 14:38:22	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x43f770…
06-23 14:28:31	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe67089…
06-23 14:26:13	spy closes above 735 on june 23 2026	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x0d678f…
06-23 14:14:14	spy closes above 735 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xda2755…
06-23 13:48:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	47¢	$2	0x2ad77a…
06-23 13:35:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x37229f…
06-23 10:35:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4e9d08…
06-23 10:07:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe9f111…
06-23 08:33:29	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0c6577…
06-23 07:32:23	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9f889d…
06-23 05:46:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x444dba…
06-23 04:10:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x694dc2…
06-23 00:51:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x96c815…
06-23 00:39:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x6fd321…
06-22 22:26:17	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x793a01…
06-22 22:04:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xec8924…
06-22 22:04:53	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x0349e1…
06-22 19:29:02	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x9329f6…
06-22 18:17:49	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x9b8722…
06-22 17:54:29	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x858a75…
06-22 17:30:56	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x8e14ee…
06-22 17:06:37	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x9437d3…
06-22 16:41:44	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x87bff5…
06-22 16:16:25	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x85e454…
06-22 15:41:08	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x5495b2…
06-22 13:19:16	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x687541…
06-22 12:27:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xa1a7a2…
06-22 12:15:38	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x579dc3…
06-22 10:51:28	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x2ca5c7…
06-22 04:19:55	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4e69e9…
06-22 03:22:13	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xf62db6…
06-22 02:59:13	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x5ba508…
06-22 02:47:29	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x4c9373…
06-22 02:35:31	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0184de…
06-22 02:35:20	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xc54df9…
06-21 22:47:11	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xa20dc5…
06-21 21:21:53	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1efa45…