Offensive-Farm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

31.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,893

lifetime

Volume

$4.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 07-01 03:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

58% 19% $-18

Politics

23% 0% $-3

Sports

19% 37% $-7

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 193 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No		+5	$4	8¢	$0	$-3	06-04 23:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	21	$58	55	54	+0	open	—	06-18 18:47
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	28	$46	174	174	+0	open	—	06-25 21:42
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	15	$37	60	60	+0	open	—	04-23 04:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	16	$36	81	81	-0	open	—	06-09 01:15
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	12	$33	50	50	+0	open	—	04-23 04:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$31	39	39	+0	open	—	04-22 13:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	13	$29	35	35	+0	open	—	04-21 13:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	11	$28	48	33	+15	open	—	06-13 13:03
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	10	$28	30	30	+0	open	—	06-17 15:57
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	7	$27	60	60	+0	open	—	06-19 03:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$26	27	27	+0	open	—	06-23 13:48
starmer out by june 22 2026	8	$25	18	18	+0	open	—	06-21 12:43
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry	3	$22	20	15	+5	open	—	05-28 16:08
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	7	$21	19	19	+0	open	—	06-11 18:48
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	11	$21	62	62	+0	open	—	06-21 17:43
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	7	$21	27	27	+0	open	—	06-03 02:07
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$19	25	25	+0	open	—	04-22 19:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	06-10 07:45
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic	4	$18	20	10	+10	open	—	05-27 16:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	5	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	04-23 04:10
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	6	$16	17	17	+0	open	—	04-23 04:10
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	3	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	05-27 09:46
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$14	160	160	+0	open	—	06-09 22:13
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	4	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-06 15:48
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	5	$14	21	6	+15	open	—	06-01 03:11
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	5	$14	15	15	+0	open	—	06-12 10:16
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	3	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-09 16:16
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays	7	$14	34	0	+34	open	—	05-27 19:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	9	$14	30	30	+0	open	—	04-21 23:09
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	06-16 10:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:20:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x960ed0…
06-30 08:04:28	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	80¢	$3	0xf1bcea…
06-30 07:36:17	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5008ef…
06-30 07:36:11	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xdb8035…
06-30 07:36:01	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x3262e5…
06-30 07:35:53	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xc66845…
06-30 07:35:43	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xe609bf…
06-30 07:35:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xf7580d…
06-30 07:35:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x4c81c4…
06-30 07:35:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x262019…
06-30 07:35:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0xa0f788…
06-30 07:35:07	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x680420…
06-30 07:34:55	will russia enter myrne by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0xf3bbdb…
06-30 07:34:49	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xbc7e5a…
06-30 07:34:46	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xfdbceb…
06-27 10:05:34	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xac9935…
06-27 10:02:50	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xc1578c…
06-26 19:14:44	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x63f41d…
06-26 18:53:17	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x45edf8…
06-25 21:42:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xa9e60c…
06-25 21:29:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xd25a6a…
06-25 21:16:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x978b27…
06-25 01:23:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8a9acc…
06-24 19:47:08	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x60badc…
06-24 18:43:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x71dddd…
06-24 16:48:08	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x04a63f…
06-23 22:38:22	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfc39b2…
06-23 21:12:35	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x036a39…
06-23 20:35:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x46bbe3…
06-23 19:33:02	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xfb303c…
06-23 16:08:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xb38be8…
06-23 15:56:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	45	5¢	$2	0x0b8fbf…
06-23 14:38:22	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x43f770…
06-23 14:28:31	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe67089…
06-23 14:26:13	spy closes above 735 on june 23 2026	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x0d678f…
06-23 14:14:14	spy closes above 735 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xda2755…
06-23 13:48:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	47¢	$2	0x2ad77a…
06-23 13:35:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x37229f…
06-23 10:35:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4e9d08…
06-23 10:07:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe9f111…
06-23 08:33:29	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0c6577…
06-23 07:32:23	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9f889d…
06-23 05:46:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x444dba…
06-23 04:10:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x694dc2…
06-23 00:51:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x96c815…
06-23 00:39:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x6fd321…
06-22 22:04:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xec8924…
06-22 19:29:02	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x9329f6…
06-22 18:17:49	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x9b8722…
06-22 17:54:29	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x858a75…
06-22 17:30:56	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x8e14ee…
06-22 17:06:37	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x9437d3…
06-22 16:41:44	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x87bff5…
06-22 16:16:25	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x85e454…
06-22 15:41:08	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x5495b2…
06-22 12:27:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xa1a7a2…
06-22 12:15:38	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x579dc3…
06-22 03:22:13	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xf62db6…
06-22 02:59:13	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x5ba508…
06-22 02:47:29	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x4c9373…
06-22 02:35:20	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xc54df9…
06-21 22:47:11	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xa20dc5…
06-21 20:22:37	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2691a2…
06-21 20:22:31	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa0a497…
06-21 18:32:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xdc141d…
06-21 17:43:29	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x0f0bb8…
06-21 17:31:08	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x5983c4…
06-21 17:06:44	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xe95c00…
06-21 16:39:56	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xc9c1c2…
06-21 14:40:04	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x226cab…
06-21 14:21:43	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x12d9ee…
06-21 12:43:53	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8ee982…
06-21 11:23:29	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xcbd15c…
06-21 10:59:10	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xcbdad1…
06-21 10:47:10	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x70c37e…
06-21 09:27:11	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x5bf493…
06-21 08:34:59	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xe27bfc…
06-21 05:01:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x15130d…
06-21 04:49:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xe4eaed…
06-21 04:03:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x254715…
06-21 02:31:16	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x97017c…
06-21 01:56:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd4cf27…
06-20 22:24:22	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x8f752e…
06-20 22:12:16	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x2a66db…
06-20 21:59:50	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x61374f…
06-20 21:35:46	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4df017…
06-20 19:33:32	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xbf7cee…
06-20 17:32:38	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x06eda5…
06-20 15:29:16	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x932051…
06-20 15:14:37	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xe595b9…
06-20 14:55:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xa2f6b3…
06-20 13:27:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x8f57a6…
06-20 12:25:47	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xa03995…
06-20 12:02:17	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xa083bd…
06-20 05:18:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x4004af…
06-20 00:46:52	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8c585f…
06-19 19:05:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xb3ea90…
06-19 18:53:16	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x1a82e0…
06-19 18:01:02	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$3	0xdb46b1…
06-19 16:40:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x475204…