Long-Stage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$131

Unrealized P&L

+$41

Hit rate

58.4%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$5.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$126

1 position

First seen

2026-04-22

last 06-14 11:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

71% 54% $-131

Politics

23% — —

Other

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+208	$85	60¢	$126	+$41	06-14 11:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$344	400	400	+0	open	—	05-06 04:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	14	$324	830	830	+0	Up	$-26	05-07 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	13	$313	1,153	268	+885	Down	$-29	05-08 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	12	$309	283	283	+0	Up	+$9	05-08 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	10	$281	246	246	+0	Down	+$30	05-08 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	10	$266	284	284	+0	Up	+$20	05-08 13:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$244	1,098	1,098	+0	open	—	05-07 01:11
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$224	141	141	+0	open	—	04-23 02:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	8	$218	205	205	+0	Down	+$18	05-08 13:54
president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	2	$217	132	132	+0	open	—	06-11 01:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	8	$162	282	282	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 14:29
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	2	$151	0	301	-301	open	—	06-03 13:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	13	$148	155	155	+0	Up	$-6	05-08 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	6	$112	78	78	+0	Up	+$2	05-08 04:04
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	2	$111	596	54	+542	open	—	05-09 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	4	$106	148	148	+0	Down	+$6	05-08 03:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	5	$103	150	88	+63	Down	$-7	05-08 03:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$85	208	0	+208	open	—	06-14 11:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	5	$84	132	132	+0	Up	$-11	05-08 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	3	$81	214	125	+89	Up	$-19	05-08 03:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	4	$80	333	45	+288	Down	$-30	05-07 15:24
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	1	$76	0	185	-185	open	—	05-12 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	4	$69	77	77	+0	Up	+$9	05-08 03:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	4	$69	77	77	+0	Down	+$9	05-07 15:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	5	$68	69	59	+10	Down	$-2	05-07 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	4	$62	66	66	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 03:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	3	$61	64	36	+28	Down	+$1	05-08 13:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	4	$60	47	47	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 03:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$51	37	37	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 04:06
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	1	$50	506	0	+506	open	—	06-12 01:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 11:48:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	61	57¢	$35	0x58b237…
06-12 01:08:04	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	506	10¢	$50	0xa0633f…
06-11 01:21:55	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x2e7738…
06-11 01:15:03	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	SELL	132	88¢	$117	0xbd37b8…
06-10 12:13:33	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	BUY	132	75¢	$100	0x4ab5de…
06-08 01:05:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xaae385…
06-03 13:17:14	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	50¢	$24	0x1768b8…
06-03 13:17:05	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	254	50¢	$127	0x0156e4…
05-13 01:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x25b106…
05-13 01:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0xce4bce…
05-13 01:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x0805e5…
05-13 01:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x8386ae…
05-13 01:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x6d1bdb…
05-13 00:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	37	7¢	$3	0x8c0192…
05-13 00:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	37	7¢	$3	0x421d6d…
05-13 00:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0xba0b48…
05-12 09:18:23	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	12¢	$20	0x8f1f64…
05-12 09:14:27	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0xe2b11e…
05-12 08:32:51	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	185	41¢	$76	0xa65230…
05-09 23:20:00	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0x2a99ae…
05-09 23:09:59	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	19¢	$11	0xa22591…
05-09 09:33:37	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	Yes	SELL	54	20¢	$11	0xc14456…
05-08 14:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	84	2¢	$2	0x01de58…
05-08 14:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	84	16¢	$13	0x80bfd0…
05-08 14:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	48	72¢	$34	0x6e44f7…
05-08 14:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0xaa3f03…
05-08 14:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xa14c6d…
05-08 14:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x97ca9d…
05-08 14:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x336f60…
05-08 14:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x6a5322…
05-08 14:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xf27229…
05-08 14:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	83	23¢	$19	0x56d13e…
05-08 14:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x1b28bb…
05-08 14:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0x324091…
05-08 14:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xa77865…
05-08 14:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	885	3¢	$25	0x1e1254…
05-08 14:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	29	85¢	$25	0xea8fe4…
05-08 14:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xa42ece…
05-08 14:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0x829fb4…
05-08 14:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	62	34¢	$21	0x2e8167…
05-08 14:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	38	65¢	$25	0xa4d967…
05-08 14:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x62e5f2…
05-08 14:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	43	58¢	$25	0x2dea44…
05-08 14:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xcead2d…
05-08 14:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	53	56¢	$30	0xae7ae9…
05-08 14:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x9e0f56…
05-08 14:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	42	61¢	$26	0x5cc518…
05-08 14:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x2f4edf…
05-08 14:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x1e8a03…
05-08 14:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x7e80a3…
05-08 14:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	37	51¢	$19	0xddb819…
05-08 14:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x6f092e…
05-08 14:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x9a0882…
05-08 14:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	73	35¢	$26	0x4b6f4b…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xff8d43…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe36d84…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xcfe161…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0xb9a7c0…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x474df4…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x33d97c…
05-08 14:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0x12ac79…
05-08 13:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	26	93¢	$24	0xfa307d…
05-08 13:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x8d0879…
05-08 13:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	85	34¢	$29	0x4bb1fb…
05-08 13:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	85	29¢	$25	0xefd1f6…
05-08 13:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	31	77¢	$24	0xafb04a…
05-08 13:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x613a9e…
05-08 13:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0xff6bba…
05-08 13:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xe051d8…
05-08 13:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	54	53¢	$29	0x4ad011…
05-08 13:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xd222a4…
05-08 13:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	46	60¢	$28	0xd72c48…
05-08 13:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x7638c2…
05-08 13:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	61	67¢	$41	0xe98648…
05-08 13:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xd00276…
05-08 13:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	52	62¢	$32	0xba2d90…
05-08 13:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x4b6725…
05-08 13:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	49	43¢	$21	0x144b2d…
05-08 13:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x9862f2…
05-08 13:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	43	55¢	$24	0x229aa5…
05-08 13:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xc34152…
05-08 13:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	109	35¢	$38	0x24c24f…
05-08 13:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0xabb797…
05-08 13:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	32	56¢	$18	0xa5ad08…
05-08 13:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xfcb5bf…
05-08 13:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	38	65¢	$25	0xd00784…
05-08 13:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x19c6ec…
05-08 13:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	67	55¢	$37	0x7c9f76…
05-08 13:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	67	34¢	$23	0xbcd3cf…
05-08 13:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	38	67¢	$25	0x074d90…
05-08 13:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xe4441d…
05-08 13:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xbf9b1f…
05-08 13:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	66	77¢	$51	0xe03968…
05-08 13:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x8ec9c1…
05-08 13:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	41	79¢	$32	0x08c64b…
05-08 13:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	41	62¢	$25	0xf7401a…
05-08 13:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	45	63¢	$29	0xf1366b…
05-08 13:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	37	68¢	$25	0x07d642…
05-08 13:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xec9351…
05-08 13:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x9b4350…