Unnatural-Sailboat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

38.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$642

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-11 01:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

59% 100% +$67

Politics

41% 0% $-50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		+91	$50	40¢	$37	$-13	06-09 02:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$158	212	212	-0	open	—	06-07 18:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$95	114	0	+114	open	—	04-18 20:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$63	40	76	-36	open	—	05-26 03:00
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$50	91	0	+91	open	—	06-09 02:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$50	53	0	+53	Yes	$-50	05-06 02:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	04-25 03:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$35	118	118	+0	open	—	04-28 01:58
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	2	$25	90	0	+90	Yes	+$65	04-28 01:59
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-25 03:49
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	3	$17	67	67	+0	open	—	06-11 01:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	05-09 03:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	2	$13	27	27	+0	open	—	05-24 01:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-12 04:42
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$11	127	127	+0	open	—	05-26 03:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-24 16:22
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$8	50	50	+0	open	—	06-07 18:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$7	8	0	+8	Yes	+$2	05-08 02:51
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-13 03:28
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	05-13 03:28
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	2	$1	6	6	+0	open	—	04-25 03:31
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	1	$1	13	0	+13	open	—	04-18 20:40
Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-01 15:27
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	04-18 20:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 01:07:13	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	67	11¢	$7	0xfc01ab…
06-09 02:59:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x733ed9…
06-07 18:03:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	102	30¢	$31	0xcd4baf…
06-07 18:00:18	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x19a580…
06-06 01:33:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	110	34¢	$37	0x63e1fc…
06-03 03:40:40	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xe9445b…
06-03 03:37:03	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x16346e…
06-03 03:36:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x632f09…
06-02 00:32:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	171	41¢	$70	0xa4eadf…
06-02 00:25:08	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x9d0e9a…
06-01 03:14:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x12f667…
05-26 03:00:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0x9bc9e0…
05-26 03:00:23	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	127	3¢	$4	0x5a2297…
05-24 16:22:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb3aa16…
05-24 01:43:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0x02aa4a…
05-21 02:55:59	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0x0e673f…
05-21 02:53:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xe978fe…
05-21 02:48:50	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$5	0x5dde23…
05-13 03:28:40	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x121317…
05-13 03:28:05	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x392f17…
05-13 03:24:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x68ded7…
05-12 04:42:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x6c8332…
05-10 17:04:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x0f684f…
05-09 03:48:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x1d2f41…
05-08 02:51:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0x7da997…
05-06 02:10:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xbc718d…
05-01 15:27:32	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8d5229…
04-28 01:59:02	Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x990de1…
04-28 01:58:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	118	13¢	$15	0x982146…
04-25 03:59:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x608330…
04-25 03:55:26	Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x8fd9d8…
04-25 03:51:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x409e60…
04-25 03:50:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x03e063…
04-25 03:49:00	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x0e2d95…
04-25 03:31:28	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$0	0xf868d3…
04-18 20:40:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x76f993…
04-18 20:40:06	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3f44b2…
04-18 20:39:38	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf8d5c1…
04-18 20:29:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	114	83¢	$95	0x56eca6…
04-12 22:26:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0xbabd07…