Realized P&L (30d)
+$472
Unrealized P&L
+$150
Hit rate
99.0%
Resolved (30d)
70
Trades (30d)
3,150
4,009 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$104.3K
$130.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$33
Open exposure
$395
22 positions
First seen
2026-09-26
last 11-06 01:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 23 days
Categories
Other
53% 95% +$413
Politics
40% 100% +$30
Tech
6% 100% +$6
Pop-Culture
2% 100% +$23
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 282 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI? No +363 $147 26¢ $96 -$50 11-03 04:56
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026? No +146 $59 61¢ $88 +$29 11-06 01:49
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +80 $50 68¢ $54 +$4 10-29 05:27
Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +163 $27 20¢ $33 +$5 10-25 18:30
White House press briefing room decommissioned by December 31? Yes +115 $38 26¢ $30 -$8 10-27 00:17
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? No +40 -$21 72¢ $28 +$50 11-01 14:43
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 45% by December 31? Yes +160 $20 14¢ $22 +$1 11-04 22:04
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on November 5, 2026? No +121 $18 10¢ $12 -$6 11-03 00:08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 9%-12%? No +13 $10 80¢ $11 +$1 11-05 14:17
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026? No +85 $26 10¢ $8 -$17 11-02 12:56
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on November 18, 2026? No +40 $6 16¢ $7 +$1 11-05 00:31
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Yes +28 $2 14¢ $4 +$2 11-04 14:30
Will "Michael" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +45 $2 3¢ $1 $0 10-29 00:51
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? No — +246 -$7 0¢ $1 +$8 10-29 17:41
Will Trump issue 30+ vetoes by December 31, 2027? No +0 -$6 74¢ $0 +$7 11-05 10:39
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? No — +0 -$65 96¢ $0 +$65 10-21 18:42
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 9%-12%? No +0 -$3 76¢ $0 +$3 11-01 01:01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 0%-5%? No +0 -$18 100¢ $0 +$18 09-27 19:45
will any 2027 oscar award result in a tie No +0 -$11 88¢ $0 +$11 11-03 14:43
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-10 House election by 25%-30%? No +0 -$2 72¢ $0 +$2 10-24 07:40
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No +0 -$11 48¢ $0 +$11 11-01 22:01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 3%-6%? No +0 -$15 36¢ $0 +$15 10-10 06:53