Vital-Connotation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$292

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

32.2%

Resolved

271

Trades

477

lifetime

Volume

$832

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 09-29 17:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 27% -$143

Other

23% 9% -$138

Politics

3% 8% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+73	$13	4¢	$3	-$10	09-21 18:03
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	+143	$2	1¢	$2	$0	09-29 17:28
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+400	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	09-29 17:33
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+250	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	09-29 17:33
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	+500	$1	0¢	$0	$0	09-29 17:28
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	09-21 18:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	7	$45	17,381	0	+17,381	Yes	-$45	04-29 15:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$20	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$20	06-09 15:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	4	$18	23	23	+0	Up	+$6	05-06 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 05:30 UTC	2	$16	25	23	+2	Down	+$12	04-22 05:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 23:25 UTC	5	$16	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	04-18 23:31
Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	3	$15	79	25	+54	open	—	09-29 17:27
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	5	$13	73	0	+73	open	—	09-21 18:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	4	$12	2,334	0	+2,334	No	-$12	06-12 19:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	5	$12	7,597	0	+7,597	No	-$12	06-17 10:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:20 UTC	2	$11	9	9	+0	Down	+$7	06-22 16:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:15 UTC	5	$10	107	0	+107	Down	$0	04-22 07:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 22:30 UTC	4	$10	51	6	+45	Down	+$2	06-12 22:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:35 UTC	2	$10	11	11	+0	Down	+$8	06-16 15:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 05:35 UTC	3	$10	7	7	+0	Down	+$4	04-22 05:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$8	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$8	04-29 15:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:20 UTC	3	$8	43	0	+43	Down	-$8	04-22 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	3	$8	14	14	+0	Down	$0	05-17 19:19
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?	2	$7	282	282	+0	No	+$1	05-13 15:29
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	2	$7	130	130	+0	No	+$1	05-15 01:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$7	5,333	0	+5,333	No	-$7	04-29 15:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:10 UTC	2	$7	110	0	+110	Up	-$7	04-22 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:35 UTC	2	$7	26	0	+26	Up	-$7	04-22 07:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	4	$7	87	0	+87	Down	-$7	05-03 09:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	3	$7	7	4	+3	Up	+$1	05-06 23:19
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	2	$7	100	100	+0	No	+$3	09-21 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$6	6	6	+0	Up	+$2	05-17 19:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	3	$6	475	475	+0	No	-$2	05-17 19:11
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	2	$6	189	0	+189	No	-$6	05-10 03:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:25 UTC	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$4	07-22 05:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 05:25 UTC	2	$5	5	4	+0	Up	+$4	04-22 05:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 17:34:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x41406a…
09-29 17:33:33	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x64da81…
09-29 17:33:18	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xc1a707…
09-29 17:32:24	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x7a0f2f…
09-29 17:32:11	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x1a0b07…
09-29 17:30:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xaf3929…
09-29 17:29:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0xaf22f3…
09-29 17:29:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xec9261…
09-29 17:28:48	2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9b00d7…
09-29 17:28:35	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0x6053d3…
09-29 17:27:35	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x13c7ac…
09-23 18:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xae31ae…
09-23 18:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xabda19…
09-23 18:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x61f1b2…
09-23 18:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc82d48…
09-23 18:47:31	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x7b42dc…
09-21 18:09:57	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6fd1f3…
09-21 18:06:55	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	No	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x868aad…
09-21 18:03:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1092c9…
09-21 18:03:19	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x341672…
09-15 16:42:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x53308d…
09-15 16:32:01	will bitcoin reach 100k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xbe83f0…
09-15 16:30:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xfa355b…
09-11 20:59:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf54347…
09-11 20:58:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb7ae8c…
09-03 02:33:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xba4fdb…
09-02 21:54:58	Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	174	3¢	$5	0xe72c8e…
09-02 21:53:28	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	81	4¢	$3	0x5367a8…
09-02 21:51:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xcdd2fe…
09-02 21:51:18	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	6¢	$5	0x50bd5b…
07-28 17:34:43	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb0c030…
07-28 17:31:58	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe942de…
07-28 05:09:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x6447dc…
07-28 05:08:33	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x78ba7e…
07-25 05:33:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x38e633…
07-25 05:32:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x27db79…
07-25 05:31:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb776f5…
07-25 03:42:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x4e63e1…
07-25 03:40:13	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xd524de…
07-25 03:39:33	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x1b2be2…
07-25 03:35:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x33b309…
07-25 03:33:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x937725…
07-25 03:32:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc4d430…
07-25 03:30:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x3b1752…
07-25 03:27:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe83c3e…
07-25 03:26:30	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	232	0¢	$1	0x2d56b5…
07-24 06:19:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x423eef…
07-24 06:16:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x6d9cd8…
07-24 05:56:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5dac63…
07-24 05:56:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd27de1…
07-22 05:30:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:25 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$4	0x9a90d4…
07-22 05:27:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xaa4ae1…
07-22 05:23:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8411d6…
07-22 05:22:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa81986…
07-22 05:18:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0xb3bbb5…
07-22 05:17:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdbdaf9…
07-22 05:17:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2e8409…
07-22 05:10:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xef08c0…
07-22 05:04:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xa30551…
07-22 05:02:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xd1245b…
07-03 23:14:47	will ethereum reach 2000 june 29 july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	295	1¢	$2	0xc23b76…
07-03 23:11:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xcad114…
07-03 23:01:13	will bitcoin reach 70k june 29 july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0cec32…
07-03 23:00:47	will bitcoin reach 70k june 29 july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x27fb29…
07-03 22:57:28	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xefbf69…
07-03 22:56:43	will solana reach 160 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x70cb3e…
07-03 03:19:34	will solana reach 160 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$1	0x4351b4…
07-03 03:16:50	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xeccdaf…
06-23 19:51:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9cbbca…
06-22 21:47:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x885916…
06-22 21:46:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7c9720…
06-22 21:46:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4d4e3f…
06-22 21:41:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xec72fb…
06-22 21:38:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x7d907c…
06-22 21:36:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x12e2ec…
06-22 21:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5fb6e4…
06-22 20:52:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x862c2a…
06-22 20:52:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3ccd6c…
06-22 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2ac56f…
06-22 20:46:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9223e3…
06-22 20:46:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcfe4ff…
06-22 20:41:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x151ccd…
06-22 20:39:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9d6d50…
06-22 20:38:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x35f7d8…
06-22 20:37:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfd5439…
06-22 20:32:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x937d53…
06-22 20:32:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x8bc689…
06-22 20:29:02	will solana reach 90 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x68e9dd…
06-22 16:28:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x872640…
06-22 16:27:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x203c55…
06-22 16:26:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:20 UTC	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x48e96b…
06-22 16:22:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:20 UTC	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xa1ce57…
06-22 16:17:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x8750b0…
06-22 15:36:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x90c66e…
06-22 15:35:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x042907…
06-22 15:35:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbc5adc…
06-22 15:33:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd2b450…
06-17 19:26:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcf6f23…
06-17 15:22:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x5ba0d4…
06-17 15:21:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xd408f8…