Lasting-Permafrost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

Trades

873

lifetime

Volume

$2.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 08-03 04:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 0% $-11

Other

27% 100% +$2

Sports

10% — —

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	33	$106	237	236	+1	open	—	04-08 03:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	17	$91	98	97	+1	open	—	04-12 19:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	6	$71	46	45	+1	open	—	04-12 17:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	20	$61	51	60	-9	open	—	06-21 03:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$53	73	70	+3	open	—	04-17 13:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$50	36	35	+1	open	—	03-24 02:46
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	16	$47	203	200	+3	open	—	04-11 02:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	22	$45	167	197	-31	open	—	06-14 18:32
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	7	$43	38	36	+2	open	—	03-08 07:24
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	17	$41	107	63	+44	open	—	06-17 17:32
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$41	0	46	-46	open	—	07-01 15:13
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	8	$39	72	0	+72	open	—	04-10 11:57
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	6	$38	36	25	+11	open	—	04-16 11:00
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$30	26	25	+1	open	—	04-13 07:55
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	11	$30	142	91	+51	open	—	06-23 21:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	10	$30	76	75	+1	open	—	03-23 17:38
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	4	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	04-13 16:39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$27	16	15	+1	open	—	03-10 13:41
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$27	16	15	+1	open	—	03-28 10:44
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$27	16	15	+1	open	—	03-22 04:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$26	16	15	+1	open	—	03-15 18:29
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$25	26	25	+1	open	—	04-12 07:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$24	55	18	+38	open	—	06-25 18:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	6	$24	18	18	+0	open	—	06-10 16:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$23	16	15	+1	open	—	04-17 13:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	5	$22	26	24	+2	open	—	04-17 14:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$22	24	20	+4	open	—	04-09 16:02
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	3	$22	16	15	+1	open	—	04-09 11:51
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	6	$22	13	18	-5	open	—	06-28 02:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$21	26	25	+1	open	—	04-14 05:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 04:47:50	wta boisson ruzic 2026 08 02	Lois Boisson	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xd208bc…
07-02 07:16:04	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x27898b…
07-02 07:15:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xcd9c8e…
07-02 07:14:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xf5f7f4…
07-02 07:13:46	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x46f239…
07-02 07:12:58	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xadba7b…
07-02 07:12:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0x1c01e1…
07-02 07:11:55	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	3¢	$1	0xb83b42…
07-02 07:10:47	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x97b322…
07-02 07:09:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0x19ed6c…
07-02 07:09:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x029ddf…
07-02 07:07:02	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x1ee319…
07-01 15:14:26	will pete hegseth sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950070	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd37679…
07-01 15:14:26	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa66337…
07-01 15:14:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x7911d0…
07-01 15:14:11	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x6c5249…
07-01 15:14:08	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd2455e…
07-01 15:14:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x295c6f…
07-01 15:13:59	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x2d6561…
07-01 15:13:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x4fed35…
07-01 15:13:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x2163ab…
07-01 15:13:50	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x6ce9de…
07-01 15:13:49	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x10df71…
07-01 15:13:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0xd48c80…
07-01 15:13:43	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x77ff3c…
07-01 15:13:40	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	26	79¢	$21	0xcc1b58…
07-01 15:13:38	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	24¢	$7	0x22827f…
07-01 15:13:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	46	90¢	$41	0xf36798…
06-29 19:04:10	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x9fb74a…
06-29 07:54:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x8109f0…
06-28 11:19:26	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xbe1fc9…
06-28 07:51:16	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xf52138…
06-28 02:15:32	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x2c6554…
06-28 02:15:31	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xee1591…
06-27 22:46:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x4b902d…
06-27 22:39:16	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x26996e…
06-27 21:06:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1bfa5b…
06-27 20:54:53	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x9d938c…
06-27 20:52:11	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x12cf1d…
06-27 20:51:08	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xd718c5…
06-27 17:49:17	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xca9e9b…
06-27 17:22:44	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xabea03…
06-27 16:11:13	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0x257371…
06-27 15:01:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xedda78…
06-27 14:54:28	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x0cd7d3…
06-27 11:59:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x61eca3…
06-27 10:20:22	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x274f1b…
06-27 10:18:56	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x71bd15…
06-27 08:52:34	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc8e72c…
06-26 17:11:10	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x58101d…
06-26 12:29:05	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2a2a42…
06-26 00:48:32	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xcb72e7…
06-25 18:46:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x192af5…
06-25 18:40:49	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1cec77…
06-25 15:50:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbdc82d…
06-25 15:45:40	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x55e56a…
06-25 14:13:58	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xa7f3dc…
06-25 06:27:01	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb9bbc2…
06-25 05:16:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x3363ba…
06-25 02:49:02	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xac0c3d…
06-24 22:56:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xc745a0…
06-24 21:33:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x281ec5…
06-24 18:48:16	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x24279e…
06-24 15:47:59	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xc9ec78…
06-24 14:31:40	spy closes above 725 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x9285b3…
06-24 08:38:37	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x7625b8…
06-24 07:14:37	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x4cb66f…
06-23 21:34:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xb12869…
06-23 17:32:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xca4e9b…
06-23 13:27:59	will spy dip to 735 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xab3012…
06-23 07:38:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfad3bc…
06-23 07:35:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdd264e…
06-23 06:24:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x665eae…
06-23 05:12:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf88b1f…
06-22 18:24:02	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	5	71¢	$3	0x343fb9…
06-22 17:09:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x34d4d3…
06-22 17:05:26	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xb00f98…
06-22 17:03:47	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xd8b9b0…
06-22 15:36:55	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x18b8c0…
06-22 10:50:13	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xdf6d35…
06-22 09:19:47	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x1f75ea…
06-22 07:58:59	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x11949f…
06-21 22:21:19	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	4	87¢	$4	0xe0215b…
06-21 20:58:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x3b27b7…
06-21 20:51:49	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0xea58ac…
06-21 20:50:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfe1e50…
06-21 19:21:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x888f62…
06-21 17:52:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf06adf…
06-21 17:47:20	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbbb5d6…
06-21 17:44:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x73f831…
06-21 16:39:56	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc9c1c2…
06-21 14:51:16	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xff3be2…
06-21 13:34:10	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x39d94d…
06-21 11:01:04	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xb9c8d4…
06-21 03:24:20	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	57	2¢	$1	0xce3a40…
06-21 03:06:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x690cf3…
06-19 21:58:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc46df3…
06-19 21:05:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x4d2cfd…
06-19 20:44:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xfb7e67…
06-19 20:12:38	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xcf1860…