Determined-Thump — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$115

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$964

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$23

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 11-04 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Sports

39% 38% -$26

Other

37% 45% -$87

Politics

22% 62% $0

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Crypto

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	+20	$5	33¢	$7	+$2	11-04 14:32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+70	$10	9¢	$7	-$3	10-06 05:31
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+181	$10	2¢	$5	-$5	10-05 04:28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+128	$5	2¢	$3	-$2	08-25 14:17
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+54	$3	5¢	$3	$0	09-01 13:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	4	$80	65	65	+0	Sean Strickland	+$40	05-10 04:46
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$60	123	123	+0	No	+$20	07-01 09:03
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	04-16 04:46
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	2	$44	100	0	+100	Knicks	-$44	06-04 02:54
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-16 04:46
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$39	85	67	+18	Yes	+$9	06-09 03:49
ere psv utr 2026 04 04 psv	2	$37	23	23	+0	Yes	+$7	04-04 16:23
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$34	33	33	+0	Yes	-$6	04-20 01:22
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	1	$30	55	0	+55	No	-$30	04-28 04:54
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$1	03-23 04:05
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	1	$30	35	0	+35	Yes	-$30	07-04 02:36
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	3	$30	44	14	+30	Yes	-$10	09-19 01:00
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	1	$29	0	33	-33	Yes	-$4	06-25 04:50
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$24	195	0	+195	No	-$24	03-09 15:57
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$22	15	15	+0	No	+$2	05-05 15:23
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$20	370	0	+370	No	-$20	06-09 13:58
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	1	$20	43	0	+43	Knicks	+$23	06-06 01:58
sea int rom 2026 04 05 int	1	$20	33	0	+33	Yes	+$13	04-02 02:36
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$20	26	0	+26	Yes	+$6	04-09 04:52
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	04-30 04:54
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	03-23 04:16
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	2	$17	111	111	+0	No	-$3	03-31 04:15
fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	1	$15	23	0	+23	No	-$15	03-25 00:30
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	-$3	04-15 02:46
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$15	12	12	+0	Yes	-$5	04-09 04:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$12	18	18	+0	open	—	10-30 06:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	05-11 14:39
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	1	$10	20	0	+20	Spurs	-$10	06-09 01:43
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	2	$10	181	0	+181	open	—	10-05 04:28
Spurs vs. Thunder	1	$10	20	0	+20	Spurs	-$10	05-31 01:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 14:32:01	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6fb7ed…
10-30 06:15:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0xd606cf…
10-15 14:21:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3e30e3…
10-06 05:31:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xb5f409…
10-05 04:28:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x2c83c0…
09-23 14:06:41	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x8c4b53…
09-19 01:00:22	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x45d8b9…
09-19 00:58:52	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	SELL	14	67¢	$10	0xd395fd…
09-12 00:34:27	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 14?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x0be280…
09-01 13:30:04	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	54	6¢	$3	0x5ee6d1…
08-31 02:22:27	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x2d4119…
08-25 14:21:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x2073d7…
08-25 14:19:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xa679fb…
08-25 14:17:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0xd1398e…
08-24 06:16:58	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x43eb38…
08-24 06:16:24	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0xb0b7d3…
08-11 08:13:27	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xb87937…
08-10 02:09:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x869877…
08-10 02:09:06	Will Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x453f54…
07-04 02:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x878ebf…
07-01 09:03:02	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	123	33¢	$40	0x8bdfc2…
06-25 04:50:28	Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	SELL	33	87¢	$29	0x67ac56…
06-09 14:03:00	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	123	16¢	$20	0x05b01a…
06-09 13:58:36	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	370	5¢	$20	0x822245…
06-09 03:49:22	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	27	37¢	$10	0xbf38ba…
06-09 01:43:37	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdeebba…
06-08 01:51:33	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0xefd1bd…
06-06 01:58:58	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x38d80f…
06-04 02:54:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x56d137…
06-04 02:38:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xe80ca3…
06-02 05:27:39	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	40	36¢	$14	0xaaa115…
05-31 01:14:20	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf225d2…
05-22 00:31:48	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xd4dc9e…
05-11 14:39:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x098622…
05-11 12:43:17	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x734039…
05-11 12:35:00	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	189	5¢	$10	0xd75c87…
05-11 09:19:21	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xb353b1…
05-11 00:20:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x8ae13a…
05-10 04:46:31	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0xd0a0a1…
05-10 04:43:50	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xdd749d…
05-10 04:34:46	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x37fb8a…
05-10 04:23:35	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xe22dd0…
05-05 15:40:56	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x18ded0…
05-05 15:23:28	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x07173d…
04-30 04:54:38	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x0f260d…
04-28 04:54:40	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	Yes	BUY	55	54¢	$30	0xe93709…
04-20 01:22:52	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	33	42¢	$14	0xa7cd99…
04-18 00:44:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xeaaf12…
04-16 09:22:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd71d49…
04-16 09:22:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x8edb25…
04-16 04:54:18	chi sgr tie 2026 04 18 tie	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x581c3c…
04-16 04:46:14	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5413ce…
04-16 04:46:00	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x028de4…
04-15 14:23:36	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9db634…
04-15 02:46:36	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x2b0194…
04-14 01:26:45	sea int cag 2026 04 17 int	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xbe8566…
04-14 01:25:19	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x1eadf3…
04-11 14:58:39	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x66c771…
04-09 04:52:51	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x4bbabc…
04-09 04:49:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x8ed3fa…
04-04 16:23:53	ere psv utr 2026 04 04 psv	Yes	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xb7c734…
04-02 02:38:09	ere psv utr 2026 04 04 psv	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x178d00…
04-02 02:36:59	sea int rom 2026 04 05 int	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x2462fb…
03-31 04:15:43	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	Yes	SELL	111	6¢	$7	0x3bc02d…
03-30 03:57:10	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x96fd60…
03-30 03:56:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x740486…
03-30 03:55:58	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x81ee6a…
03-30 03:55:20	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xbd5c3c…
03-25 00:30:11	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xf4f4e2…
03-23 04:16:51	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x098fc1…
03-23 04:16:13	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x268d7e…
03-23 04:05:25	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x37c241…
03-09 15:57:33	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	195	12¢	$24	0x32bf98…