Specific-Award — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.9%

Resolved

Trades

4,407

lifetime

Volume

$37.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-18 00:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

62% 50% $-39

Other

28% 60% +$3

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	119	$645	1,243	994	+248	open	—	06-01 02:37
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	16	$611	327	327	+0	open	—	07-16 17:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	41	$538	510	542	-32	open	—	05-23 18:26
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	69	$535	761	803	-42	open	—	04-30 05:54
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	16	$523	360	206	+154	open	—	07-15 08:34
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	17	$509	277	304	-27	open	—	05-27 20:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	54	$483	907	999	-92	open	—	04-21 17:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	83	$482	528	595	-67	open	—	04-24 18:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	75	$476	685	727	-41	open	—	05-25 03:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$430	290	290	-0	open	—	07-18 00:26
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	10	$393	264	330	-66	open	—	04-22 13:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	8	$384	374	394	-20	open	—	05-15 05:05
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	50	$371	490	511	-20	open	—	04-15 21:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	33	$368	468	475	-7	open	—	04-22 13:49
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	6	$363	258	258	+0	open	—	07-18 00:26
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$347	151	200	-49	Yes	+$2	05-03 07:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	26	$341	589	268	+321	open	—	05-29 18:13
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	10	$335	263	263	+0	open	—	07-18 00:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	59	$320	238	266	-28	open	—	04-30 05:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	70	$319	240	336	-96	open	—	04-22 13:49
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	13	$313	169	168	+1	open	—	04-17 17:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	14	$313	327	327	+0	open	—	04-22 13:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	35	$304	224	336	-112	open	—	05-15 05:05
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	33	$296	204	204	+0	open	—	04-21 20:15
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	3	$295	176	175	+2	open	—	04-15 02:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$277	149	144	+5	open	—	04-24 00:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	37	$277	542	573	-32	open	—	05-04 00:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	54	$273	192	363	-171	open	—	04-03 22:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	26	$265	207	161	+45	No	$-5	05-07 21:20
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	54	$262	268	258	+10	open	—	04-07 23:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 00:26:57	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0xcdcf02…
07-18 00:26:55	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	87	38¢	$33	0xf2b601…
07-18 00:26:55	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	258	60¢	$155	0xdd0f37…
07-18 00:26:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	290	71¢	$206	0xdc3fba…
07-18 00:26:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	72	80¢	$58	0x851526…
07-18 00:26:55	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	84	42¢	$35	0x813ca2…
07-18 00:26:55	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	258	71¢	$183	0x5264fe…
07-18 00:26:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x3c2a25…
07-17 23:14:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0xdf8f23…
07-17 21:43:34	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x84327c…
07-17 21:24:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	24	69¢	$16	0xb268ee…
07-17 20:45:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	14	69¢	$9	0xf0354b…
07-17 18:08:09	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	33	95¢	$32	0x6a5b4c…
07-17 16:02:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x743748…
07-17 16:01:13	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	173	15¢	$26	0xdb516b…
07-17 16:01:01	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x885340…
07-17 15:37:51	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	64	95¢	$61	0x39db75…
07-17 13:56:09	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	87	30¢	$26	0xc52079…
07-17 10:57:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	47	76¢	$36	0x76fc2b…
07-17 10:56:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	18	76¢	$14	0x3f6c62…
07-17 10:56:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x491638…
07-17 10:13:30	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x530318…
07-17 08:51:48	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	78	77¢	$60	0x282a35…
07-17 08:27:15	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x204f8b…
07-17 00:28:52	over 75m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x3c2d87…
07-16 21:42:43	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0x04e5d4…
07-16 21:42:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0x5abdf6…
07-16 21:07:08	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0x0c6a32…
07-16 20:49:07	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xd77f85…
07-16 18:16:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	71	69¢	$49	0x6811b6…
07-16 18:15:50	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x189edc…
07-16 17:20:38	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	57	94¢	$53	0x8dfa5b…
07-16 17:20:26	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0x0600c2…
07-15 10:58:23	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	27	80¢	$21	0xb86a16…
07-15 08:34:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xcbc0df…
07-15 08:28:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	98	89¢	$87	0x3dfef9…
07-15 03:07:46	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0xed068a…
07-15 03:07:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x8ae3a3…
07-15 03:02:35	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x114710…
07-15 02:36:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0xd48d14…
07-15 00:20:08	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xc8b088…
07-15 00:20:08	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x64b5b1…
07-15 00:09:01	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xd7c356…
07-15 00:08:59	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x682c03…
07-14 23:20:04	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x1cf407…
07-14 22:47:40	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	BUY	77	77¢	$60	0xcdd66e…
07-14 21:39:01	over 75m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0a2fa6…
07-14 20:23:34	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	88	98¢	$86	0x63ae61…
07-14 12:24:56	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0xdf021f…
07-14 10:36:53	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xdc3c97…
07-14 08:21:05	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x448cb2…
07-14 05:22:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	74	81¢	$60	0x6681b5…
07-14 04:45:47	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xe13977…
07-14 04:41:37	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x942502…
07-13 20:25:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	71	84¢	$60	0xd2dba6…
07-13 15:23:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	87	65¢	$57	0x4c5e76…
07-13 08:59:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x257905…
07-13 07:23:55	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$9	0x049d21…
07-13 06:44:28	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x6f4baa…
07-13 06:38:46	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xd178a4…
07-13 04:20:08	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	58	68¢	$39	0xd9f0e7…
07-13 04:18:10	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0xaaa427…
07-13 03:42:16	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x40ca36…
07-13 03:12:16	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	75	68¢	$51	0xaaf15e…
07-13 00:29:05	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x9d7d73…
07-12 22:56:44	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb29c1e…
07-12 16:03:11	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0xb1c695…
07-12 16:03:07	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	26	99¢	$25	0xf759dd…
07-12 16:02:44	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xe303a7…
07-12 16:02:29	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	35	98¢	$35	0x9ccd63…
07-12 14:18:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xb747df…
07-12 14:18:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x13dcbc…
07-12 14:07:58	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	26	93¢	$24	0x591b28…
07-12 14:07:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	32	82¢	$26	0x3c3bc2…
07-12 14:07:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x087109…
07-12 13:18:35	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	220	93¢	$205	0x0bfc9a…
07-12 13:16:53	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x002028…
07-12 13:16:31	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x04a966…
07-12 13:01:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	43	90¢	$38	0x1b10d6…
07-12 12:50:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	BUY	109	52¢	$57	0x236b5f…
07-12 12:50:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x425c26…
07-12 12:03:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	39	56¢	$22	0xab8d4f…
07-12 11:58:37	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0xff1a09…
07-12 11:06:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	51	89¢	$45	0x94ca63…
07-12 09:57:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	76	50¢	$38	0x9aaa7f…
07-12 09:05:28	lol blg hle1 2026 07 12	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x02abcb…
07-12 04:17:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x2b2ef9…
07-12 04:13:44	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xbacee3…
07-12 04:05:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcba629…
07-12 04:05:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x8114ca…
07-12 04:05:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x5e2948…
07-12 04:05:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x94ecee…
07-12 04:05:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0x6c6fc7…
07-12 01:50:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x5d6b6f…
07-11 21:01:31	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x34980e…
07-11 20:39:29	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x911ffa…
07-11 20:39:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x533b97…
07-11 19:50:23	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x09509e…
07-11 15:32:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	40	91¢	$37	0x954c75…
07-11 10:27:05	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543764	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xa8b352…