Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$675

Unrealized P&L

-$122

Hit rate

72.9%

Resolved

151

Trades

387

lifetime

Volume

$24.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$2.10K

21 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 11-10 04:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

49% 64% -$637

Politics

46% 78% +$134

Tech

4% 50% -$197

Sports

0% 75% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+679	$596	90¢	$615	+$19	11-08 07:34
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Yes	+400	$347	88¢	$354	+$7	11-08 11:50
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	+375	$334	88¢	$332	-$2	11-08 07:31
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+286	$274	99¢	$284	+$11	11-08 07:29
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$99	99¢	$99	$0	11-08 06:17
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$74	99¢	$99	+$25	10-19 12:02
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	+100	$77	68¢	$69	-$9	11-04 14:33
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+300	$81	20¢	$60	-$21	11-07 13:28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+40	$18	70¢	$28	+$10	10-18 07:06
Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	+50	$18	54¢	$27	+$8	10-25 06:27
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$26	17¢	$25	$0	10-21 06:30
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	+400	$65	6¢	$24	-$41	11-06 17:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+150	$57	15¢	$22	-$35	10-19 12:11
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Yes	+68	$21	24¢	$16	-$4	08-18 12:29
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	+77	$45	12¢	$9	-$36	11-03 11:01
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	+100	$20	8¢	$8	-$12	08-15 08:46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+200	$6	4¢	$8	+$2	11-06 09:36
john ratcliffe out as cia director by december 31 20260729184057166	Yes	+58	$13	14¢	$8	-$5	08-16 10:46
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+100	$30	6¢	$6	-$24	08-16 18:51
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	+52	$5	7¢	$4	-$1	10-31 13:32
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	+165	$16	1¢	$2	-$14	11-01 17:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	3	$805	1,136	227	+909	Yes	+$314	09-23 16:17
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	3	$797	844	0	+844	No	+$47	10-04 17:18
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$625	450	300	+150	No	-$123	10-08 05:24
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	3	$611	654	356	+298	Yes	+$152	09-30 06:37
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	2	$596	679	0	+679	open	—	11-08 07:34
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	5	$546	361	230	+131	No	-$101	10-16 12:45
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	3	$488	1,318	244	+1,074	No	-$292	09-23 16:18
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$433	332	332	+0	Yes	+$6	10-06 04:43
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	5	$431	235	235	+0	Yes	+$2	10-10 12:58
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	2	$416	313	313	+0	No	+$140	10-09 03:57
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?	4	$416	236	236	+0	No	+$20	09-18 14:30
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$400	562	0	+562	Yes	+$162	09-18 16:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$399	310	310	+0	Yes	-$14	10-16 13:04
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	7	$351	396	0	+396	No	-$351	10-17 22:25
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	4	$347	400	0	+400	open	—	11-08 11:50
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	2	$336	200	200	+0	No	+$4	10-03 03:54
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	5	$334	375	0	+375	open	—	11-08 07:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$324	200	200	+0	Yes	+$12	10-16 04:32
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	2	$292	217	217	+0	Yes	+$92	08-09 11:47
US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	10	$282	162	162	+0	Yes	-$4	11-01 16:55
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	2	$274	286	0	+286	open	—	11-08 07:29
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	2	$272	331	0	+331	No	-$272	10-28 18:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	2	$254	200	200	+0	open	—	10-03 02:51
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	2	$246	128	128	+0	No	+$1	09-30 14:30
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?	2	$224	239	0	+239	Yes	+$15	10-02 04:46
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	4	$223	200	200	+0	No	+$20	10-22 04:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	2	$218	452	452	+0	open	—	10-19 07:32
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$217	119	119	+0	No	+$0	09-21 18:40
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	182	182	+0	No	+$6	08-01 06:29
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$205	107	107	+0	Yes	+$5	09-17 18:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 04:35:09	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0x37beac…
11-09 14:08:48	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	72¢	$41	0xab8b97…
11-09 13:59:27	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x461155…
11-09 13:59:18	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	72¢	$27	0xc8784d…
11-08 11:50:39	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0x5b299c…
11-08 07:34:45	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	579	88¢	$510	0x315ac8…
11-08 07:31:18	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	89¢	$245	0xe57e59…
11-08 07:29:03	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	186	97¢	$180	0x45bc96…
11-08 06:17:22	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcd429a…
11-07 13:28:03	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	27¢	$81	0xa66bf3…
11-06 17:04:24	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	16¢	$65	0xd9fe40…
11-06 16:46:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	312	26¢	$81	0x6818f6…
11-06 09:36:07	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x2ac3cb…
11-05 18:16:42	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xf3174e…
11-05 04:54:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x8f244e…
11-05 04:45:45	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xbc75ce…
11-04 21:51:36	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x5cab74…
11-04 20:16:43	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	89¢	$24	0x8bd782…
11-04 19:45:55	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Yes	BUY	57	86¢	$49	0xa3d2a9…
11-04 19:43:42	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0xcbc0ab…
11-04 18:50:46	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x75331c…
11-04 18:02:33	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x3db6f7…
11-04 17:18:19	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x70b622…
11-04 17:14:39	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xf04586…
11-04 14:33:13	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	34	77¢	$26	0xd62f88…
11-04 14:33:13	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0x998990…
11-04 14:31:28	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$24	0x35ba3c…
11-04 12:32:43	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x4d9eae…
11-04 10:40:25	Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0xf9f862…
11-04 10:37:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	24¢	$19	0x3cdbde…
11-03 11:01:09	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	77	59¢	$45	0xb7d425…
11-03 10:55:15	Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x4bd5f3…
11-03 10:50:03	Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x7b577f…
11-03 10:37:12	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x30b1b8…
11-01 17:16:25	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0xe177cb…
11-01 17:12:01	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xb9d877…
11-01 17:09:54	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	65	9¢	$6	0xaa2b69…
11-01 16:59:30	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xb25455…
11-01 16:55:24	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	SELL	37	85¢	$31	0x8c648b…
11-01 16:48:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	SELL	105	85¢	$90	0x886c03…
11-01 16:37:43	Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	85¢	$67	0x3f4db1…
11-01 15:12:33	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x8b5f2e…
11-01 13:31:28	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x77cb62…
11-01 05:35:55	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x341431…
11-01 05:25:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x74d737…
11-01 04:58:30	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	83¢	$29	0xc4c20f…
11-01 04:38:22	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	88¢	$58	0x0c94fa…
10-31 16:36:03	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0x697f80…
10-31 16:08:39	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0xd6be1f…
10-31 14:17:15	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xcf92bf…
10-31 13:32:48	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xdc740a…
10-29 16:51:49	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x7a3826…
10-29 16:51:13	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xdddc78…
10-29 16:50:05	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x2b9a25…
10-29 16:48:50	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd7594d…
10-29 16:45:35	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x215ea9…
10-29 16:45:32	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x5aee07…
10-29 16:44:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	No	BUY	63	85¢	$54	0x190d9a…
10-29 16:42:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x00eb6a…
10-29 06:30:47	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	45	59¢	$27	0x98a48d…
10-28 18:40:11	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xf4d092…
10-27 16:35:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xcdfe6e…
10-27 06:12:48	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0x83717c…
10-27 06:09:54	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	80¢	$67	0x889776…
10-27 05:48:41	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	12¢	$11	0xcf4510…
10-27 05:48:41	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x6ff93e…
10-26 16:23:59	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xaf7a9f…
10-25 06:27:27	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x0c29f8…
10-25 05:05:47	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x36ab25…
10-22 12:55:50	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xad7727…
10-22 08:31:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	41¢	$9	0x818315…
10-22 08:31:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	41¢	$12	0x302ba5…
10-22 08:31:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	41¢	$12	0x00eccb…
10-22 06:18:26	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0xc6b444…
10-22 04:23:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x87ad3b…
10-21 15:53:41	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x15fced…
10-21 09:55:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x455539…
10-21 06:30:11	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$26	0x899152…
10-20 10:16:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x4500cd…
10-20 06:21:08	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	110	9¢	$10	0x66440a…
10-19 12:11:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x8442b4…
10-19 12:06:41	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x7a881c…
10-19 12:06:35	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x79a99c…
10-19 12:06:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x7c7bbe…
10-19 12:06:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0x3146a9…
10-19 12:02:21	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xf55896…
10-19 11:52:45	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	200	17¢	$34	0xa89f79…
10-19 10:49:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	82	38¢	$31	0x76cccc…
10-19 10:49:44	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xe4351c…
10-19 10:48:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x49d8b3…
10-19 07:32:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	452	26¢	$118	0xae5e96…
10-19 04:39:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x9f89f5…
10-18 23:14:32	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0x8225a1…
10-18 17:34:33	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x044c69…
10-18 17:29:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x94b1e7…
10-18 08:54:20	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x4a3067…
10-18 07:06:44	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x2b71ca…
10-17 22:25:42	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x0d72af…
10-17 21:53:41	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x56bc03…
10-17 21:53:21	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x868dc2…