Thin-Membrane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$778

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

56.2%

Resolved

391

Trades

9,088

lifetime

Volume

$57.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-29 15:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Politics

55% 37% +$174

Other

26% 37% +$1,883

Crypto

19% 19% -$1,257

Tech

0% 0% -$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	+330	$29	0¢	$0	-$29	10-28 09:52
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+25	-$1	0¢	$0	+$2	10-12 20:43
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	+0	-$28	2¢	$0	+$28	10-15 11:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	174	$5.5K	37,096	44,958	-7,862	No	+$282	04-29 15:39
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	49	$4.2K	183,467	18,431	+165,036	No	+$2,009	05-12 12:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	91	$3.9K	35,802	52,202	-16,400	No	-$639	04-29 14:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	31	$2.1K	52,726	22,177	+30,549	No	+$1,321	04-27 11:53
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	11	$2.1K	4,001	1,200	+2,801	Yes	-$202	10-22 14:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	12	$2.0K	9,199	9,380	-181	No	+$33	05-09 02:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	42	$2.0K	5,632	6,820	-1,188	No	+$497	04-21 13:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	96	$1.6K	68,864	73,932	-5,068	No	-$486	04-28 18:15
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	35	$1.3K	1,061	2,437	-1,376	No	-$570	05-05 15:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.2K	665	665	+0	No	+$63	05-11 05:23
Chirayu Rana fired?	4	$1.2K	0	2,266	-2,266	cancelled	+$71	05-01 07:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	64	$1.2K	52,877	25,869	+27,008	No	+$191	04-26 07:20
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	35	$1.0K	221,529	9,998	+211,531	No	-$647	05-12 00:12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	26	$1.0K	3,750	2,481	+1,269	No	-$148	05-20 14:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	29	$961	4,278	4,278	+0	No	-$74	04-29 15:28
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	19	$864	10,360	5,061	+5,299	Yes	-$176	05-05 23:03
bitcoin above 70k on march 23	30	$822	1,849	1,867	-18	Yes	+$396	03-23 13:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	44	$789	15,267	13,194	+2,073	No	-$358	05-13 13:45
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	3	$788	400	400	+0	Yes	+$11	04-26 04:25
will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 21	62	$725	691	691	+0	Yes	+$654	03-22 00:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	105	$696	10,369	18,016	-7,647	No	+$273	04-24 11:35
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	121	$661	441,145	54	+441,091	No	-$637	05-04 06:35
bitcoin above 68k on march 28	31	$622	9,960	10,771	-811	No	+$335	03-28 13:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	83	$583	24,198	24,091	+107	No	+$107	04-27 06:00
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	29	$552	1,319	576	+743	Yes	+$560	06-01 16:54
James Comey arrested by April 29?	19	$520	1,605	0	+1,605	Yes	+$1,085	04-29 15:45
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	45	$498	2,616	2,343	+272	Yes	+$314	04-18 11:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	30	$483	12,861	7,295	+5,566	No	-$338	05-28 07:06
will bitcoin dip to 70k on march 21	19	$478	400	400	+0	Yes	+$322	03-22 00:06
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	8	$465	289	289	+0	Yes	+$32	05-05 12:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	71	0¢	$0	0xf1f9f1…
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf1408f…
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	65	0¢	$0	0x34820b…
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x2761de…
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1d6c75…
10-29 15:32:47	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x1be690…
10-29 15:32:46	Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0xd9570d…
10-29 15:32:46	Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbf5d33…
10-29 10:39:11	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x6ab2fb…
10-29 10:39:11	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x4df658…
10-28 09:52:38	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x2695ee…
10-28 09:41:37	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xec7a46…
10-28 09:34:53	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x5d084f…
10-28 08:05:55	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xce5d01…
10-28 08:05:55	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xa057a1…
10-28 05:13:47	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xb9a180…
10-27 23:05:54	Will 2026 rank between 13th and 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x84dfe6…
10-27 23:05:53	Will 2026 rank below 15th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x733432…
10-27 08:54:20	Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb022e8…
10-25 07:56:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xb8bebe…
10-24 19:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x3ba847…
10-24 17:28:15	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdd451f…
10-23 20:03:03	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x6521ec…
10-23 19:42:20	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x5c593d…
10-23 00:48:24	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	SELL	222	99¢	$219	0xe54551…
10-22 18:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x9089e8…
10-22 14:44:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	620	30¢	$187	0x3e98d6…
10-22 14:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	1,200	30¢	$362	0xad9e48…
10-22 13:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	75	42¢	$31	0xf265de…
10-22 13:39:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	133	42¢	$56	0x92db50…
10-22 13:37:38	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	213	42¢	$89	0x0cd902…
10-22 13:33:41	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xbb2a6a…
10-22 13:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x0ba65d…
10-22 13:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	285	50¢	$143	0xefb32b…
10-22 13:31:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	213	50¢	$107	0x758d78…
10-22 13:20:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	SELL	1,200	79¢	$952	0x9e5700…
10-22 06:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x4dfeb2…
10-22 06:23:35	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	1,200	12¢	$146	0x557776…
10-22 03:55:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xcc9349…
10-22 03:55:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xbd6cf3…
10-22 03:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2f3f84…
10-22 03:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xd41aca…
10-22 03:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc6038e…
10-22 03:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xa255b2…
10-22 03:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x9a1db0…
10-22 01:38:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x46c1d9…
10-22 00:30:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x26997f…
10-21 21:37:42	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbe3c1d…
10-21 20:53:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x1ecc01…
10-21 20:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	28	14¢	$4	0x719b5c…
10-21 17:44:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa61f86…
10-21 17:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xf168b3…
10-21 04:56:18	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	Yes	SELL	2,600	0¢	$3	0x472ef3…
10-20 08:33:13	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$2	0x607ef4…
10-18 22:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x96f868…
10-18 22:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x33cac2…
10-18 22:56:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0xcbbab5…
10-18 22:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	24	30¢	$7	0xa149cd…
10-18 22:55:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	95	30¢	$29	0x19c33f…
10-18 22:55:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	95	30¢	$29	0x54a27a…
10-16 16:33:27	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	9,471	0¢	$19	0xf1f676…
10-16 16:12:57	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	421	0¢	$1	0x3c2d04…
10-16 16:04:09	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	316	0¢	$1	0x0c0d5e…
10-16 15:50:54	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	253	0¢	$1	0x8f2cfc…
10-16 15:47:13	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x033c71…
10-16 15:40:37	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	204	1¢	$1	0x49a84f…
10-16 15:31:34	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	175	1¢	$1	0x8d910d…
10-16 15:22:31	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	153	1¢	$1	0x1cfc26…
10-16 15:21:40	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	136	1¢	$1	0xe873f2…
10-16 15:17:01	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x59c47a…
10-16 15:09:06	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x022294…
10-16 15:09:01	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0x7a878b…
10-16 15:08:55	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x682238…
10-16 14:31:48	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xd7d83d…
10-16 14:31:46	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	462	1¢	$3	0x60ddbd…
10-16 14:15:40	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4d5f0e…
10-16 14:15:06	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	220	2¢	$3	0xd9cc66…
10-16 14:14:45	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	156	2¢	$3	0xf99132…
10-16 14:13:54	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x7b582b…
10-16 14:13:52	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	165	2¢	$3	0x14bfab…
10-16 11:12:13	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xae1336…
10-16 08:02:25	Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0xa94a40…
10-16 05:41:34	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xd0e87e…
10-16 05:21:04	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x081754…
10-16 04:17:19	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x951caa…
10-15 11:32:30	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	69	5¢	$4	0xd68bab…
10-15 04:47:05	Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x9d52de…
10-15 03:54:19	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	102	5¢	$5	0x43efe6…
10-15 01:11:35	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x842c07…
10-14 19:00:15	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$7	0x350b7e…
10-14 17:52:31	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x7cec30…
10-14 08:00:19	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xf3eec7…
10-13 22:08:58	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xc4e09b…
10-13 05:26:44	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	115	2¢	$3	0x87a7c9…
10-12 20:43:41	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x83164d…
10-12 14:36:32	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	694	1¢	$6	0xdbf7eb…
10-12 04:20:51	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x5e337d…
10-09 06:56:03	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x6bfe75…
10-09 06:56:03	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	440	0¢	$0	0x3d4559…
10-09 06:56:03	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	452	0¢	$0	0x38d16b…