Thin-Membrane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$113

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

Trades

7,386

lifetime

Volume

$50.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 06-18 01:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

60% 25% $-48

Crypto

22% — —

Other

19% 0% $-64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 562 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	174	$5.5K	37,096	44,958	-7,862	open	—	04-29 15:39
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	48	$4.1K	164,907	18,431	+146,476	open	—	05-12 12:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	91	$3.9K	35,802	52,202	-16,400	open	—	04-29 14:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	31	$2.1K	52,726	22,177	+30,549	open	—	04-27 11:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	12	$2.0K	9,199	9,380	-181	No	+$33	05-09 02:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	42	$2.0K	5,632	6,820	-1,188	open	—	04-21 13:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	96	$1.6K	68,864	73,932	-5,068	open	—	04-28 18:15
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	35	$1.3K	1,061	2,437	-1,376	open	—	05-05 15:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.2K	665	665	+0	open	—	05-11 05:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	64	$1.2K	52,877	25,869	+27,008	open	—	04-26 07:20
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	35	$1.0K	221,529	9,998	+211,531	open	—	05-12 00:12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	26	$1.0K	3,750	2,481	+1,269	open	—	05-20 14:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	29	$961	4,278	4,278	+0	No	$-74	04-29 15:28
bitcoin above 70k on march 23	30	$822	1,849	1,867	-18	open	—	03-23 13:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	44	$789	15,267	13,194	+2,073	open	—	05-13 13:45
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	3	$788	400	400	+0	open	—	04-26 04:25
will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 21	62	$725	691	691	+0	open	—	03-22 00:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	105	$696	10,369	18,016	-7,647	open	—	04-24 11:35
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	97	$659	439,114	54	+439,060	open	—	05-04 06:35
bitcoin above 68k on march 28	31	$622	9,960	10,771	-811	open	—	03-28 13:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	83	$583	24,198	24,091	+107	open	—	04-27 06:00
James Comey arrested by April 29?	19	$520	1,605	0	+1,605	open	—	04-29 15:45
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	45	$498	2,616	2,343	+272	open	—	04-18 11:04
will bitcoin dip to 70k on march 21	19	$478	400	400	+0	open	—	03-22 00:06
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	8	$465	289	289	+0	open	—	05-05 12:45
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	32	$427	3,436	3,436	+0	open	—	05-20 15:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	41	$394	43,996	23,774	+20,222	open	—	04-21 03:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	20	$384	13,600	15,093	-1,493	open	—	05-20 08:28
bitcoin above 60k on march 30	308	$326	100,103	110,973	-10,870	open	—	03-30 14:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$296	25,397	26,058	-660	open	—	05-27 02:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 01:41:11	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	248	0¢	$0	0xdd9238…
06-18 01:28:44	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x8ab991…
06-18 01:15:35	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0x277367…
06-17 10:00:17	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	SELL	295	2¢	$5	0xf25f9a…
06-17 09:57:23	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	SELL	101	2¢	$2	0x702fc8…
06-17 01:37:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	240	0¢	$0	0x16c49e…
06-16 12:27:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0x4cfeff…
06-16 07:42:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0xc6c981…
06-16 05:26:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xa713c5…
06-15 09:47:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x13e3dc…
06-15 09:33:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x2b2d98…
06-01 18:14:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	83	22¢	$18	0xca1dc6…
06-01 17:15:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x917722…
06-01 17:02:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x9c700e…
06-01 16:58:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0xf32689…
06-01 16:54:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x12ac6a…
06-01 16:30:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0xbee3bc…
06-01 16:29:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	34¢	$19	0x09b63d…
06-01 15:53:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	46¢	$47	0x37de74…
06-01 15:52:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0xe01de4…
06-01 15:52:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0x50eb4d…
06-01 15:52:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	54¢	$40	0xb91fff…
06-01 14:55:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x521658…
06-01 13:47:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	36	34¢	$12	0x285f34…
06-01 13:45:52	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	34¢	$10	0x3c5b2a…
06-01 13:45:47	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	33¢	$8	0xaee9c9…
06-01 13:45:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	33¢	$10	0x481e3d…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	63	32¢	$21	0xdef10c…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	33¢	$9	0xcf436c…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x9ef59a…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	48	30¢	$14	0x9c83e5…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x99cce2…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	32¢	$7	0x6fe63a…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	68	32¢	$22	0x1c1311…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0x0d2c28…
06-01 13:44:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	33¢	$9	0x06a3f7…
06-01 11:52:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x2133ae…
06-01 10:49:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x9eba84…
06-01 09:09:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0x89d4ce…
06-01 07:54:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xc397bd…
06-01 07:24:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0x8a32df…
06-01 07:08:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x852780…
06-01 07:08:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x390b63…
06-01 07:07:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xcaa42c…
06-01 05:07:36	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	30¢	$14	0x56d4e2…
06-01 04:53:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	29¢	$8	0x39f036…
06-01 04:50:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	28	29¢	$8	0x4e5b80…
06-01 04:50:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x009768…
06-01 01:30:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x5ba58a…
06-01 01:22:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	75¢	$76	0x68f667…
05-31 23:12:21	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	1,655	0¢	$8	0x5c49c8…
05-31 23:11:18	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	769	0¢	$4	0x60d8f2…
05-31 23:07:22	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa40020…
05-31 23:06:47	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x7e3ac8…
05-31 23:03:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x64a278…
05-31 23:03:50	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	1,250	0¢	$5	0xc47bbf…
05-31 23:03:19	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x1f4e55…
05-31 23:03:10	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	130	0¢	$1	0x7bdd39…
05-31 18:09:48	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	1,100	0¢	$1	0xfc2bb7…
05-31 17:59:13	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	126	0¢	$0	0x821452…
05-31 17:48:57	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	908	0¢	$1	0x8071bd…
05-31 17:46:44	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	1,350	0¢	$3	0x0aa71b…
05-31 17:45:17	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	1,350	0¢	$3	0xf009e0…
05-31 17:44:40	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xb26bad…
05-31 17:44:40	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x8216d8…
05-31 17:43:07	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xed9d22…
05-31 11:27:24	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	168	6¢	$11	0xe4a899…
05-31 11:27:24	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	150	6¢	$9	0x96f319…
05-31 11:27:24	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	156	6¢	$10	0x65e8e1…
05-31 10:53:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	143	6¢	$8	0x272e03…
05-31 10:53:16	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	107	5¢	$5	0x41dd51…
05-31 10:52:22	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	96	5¢	$5	0xd98435…
05-31 10:51:57	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xf1124b…
05-31 10:39:34	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	70	5¢	$3	0x656bb7…
05-31 10:39:30	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	56	4¢	$2	0xcc9ec0…
05-31 10:39:30	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	80	4¢	$4	0xcad003…
05-31 10:39:28	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xcccc8f…
05-31 10:39:28	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x6d579e…
05-31 04:20:53	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	223	0¢	$1	0xaf34e7…
05-31 04:15:03	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	377	0¢	$1	0x7ff719…
05-31 04:13:25	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb3d415…
05-30 06:29:12	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Something	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0xd52142…
05-29 22:40:39	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0xb492d5…
05-29 21:33:20	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	SELL	142	4¢	$6	0x6376f7…
05-29 21:11:31	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	593	0¢	$2	0xb45f45…
05-29 21:09:23	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x8fdd91…
05-29 21:07:38	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x860bd6…
05-29 18:01:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	24,000	0¢	$24	0x8299df…
05-29 18:01:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,100	0¢	$3	0x9e8e7a…
05-29 18:01:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$8	0xb75933…
05-29 18:00:54	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	600	0¢	$3	0x404fa2…
05-29 15:17:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0xa6258a…
05-29 15:09:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	587	0¢	$1	0xd02121…
05-29 15:01:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	16¢	$27	0x884de9…
05-29 14:45:17	Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	4,480	0¢	$4	0x3601af…
05-29 14:39:50	Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	280	0¢	$1	0xb1f1ee…
05-29 14:39:22	Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	107	0¢	$1	0x44989f…
05-29 14:04:36	Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe0eb2a…
05-29 13:49:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	763	0¢	$2	0xb5e39b…
05-29 11:38:09	Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$5	0x41042e…