Flawed-Molecule — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$78.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$6.08K

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

Trades

650

lifetime

Volume

$1.06M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.63K

Open exposure

$102.0K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 10-14 12:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Politics

78% 31% +$177,864

Sports

8% 0% -$82,415

Other

7% 0% -$16,877

Pop-Culture

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	+68,529	$65,093	100¢	$68.5K	+$3,367	09-27 07:18
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+18,978	$17,913	96¢	$18.1K	+$211	09-30 19:27
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+121,172	$21,826	12¢	$13.9K	-$7,892	10-14 12:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+8,763	$2,143	14¢	$1.2K	-$960	09-23 20:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+270	$227	82¢	$223	-$4	10-13 15:09
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+580	$41	6¢	$32	-$9	09-23 20:51
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	+6,346	$814	0¢	$16	-$798	07-25 21:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	122	$545.5K	428,801	430,881	-2,080	Yes	+$222,824	05-09 12:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	61	$113.9K	238,142	238,142	+0	Yes	+$28,738	05-08 19:11
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	8	$82.4K	100,506	0	+100,506	Sean Strickland	-$82,415	05-09 18:46
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	25	$65.1K	68,529	0	+68,529	open	—	09-27 07:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	16	$44.5K	53,778	53,778	+0	No	-$13,488	04-18 11:53
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	4	$33.4K	88,956	0	+88,956	Yes	-$33,357	04-02 02:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	77	$21.8K	121,172	0	+121,172	open	—	10-14 12:30
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$20.1K	96,834	0	+96,834	Yes	-$20,075	04-08 00:50
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	12	$17.9K	18,978	0	+18,978	open	—	09-30 19:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	69	$16.4K	270,135	270,135	+0	No	-$15,056	04-26 18:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	11	$15.4K	29,665	0	+29,665	Yes	+$14,263	05-07 10:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	19	$15.2K	13,923	14,039	-116	No	-$3,330	04-23 05:11
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$15.1K	229,466	0	+229,466	No	-$15,095	03-01 06:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	10	$12.5K	11,965	11,965	+0	No	-$1,987	04-18 11:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	124	$12.1K	108,522	111,155	-2,633	Yes	-$1,827	05-02 12:04
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	1	$10.0K	10,143	0	+10,143	No	+$132	03-07 20:44
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$6.5K	8,500	8,500	+0	open	—	09-26 12:54
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$2.9K	2,895	2,895	+0	No	-$615	04-18 13:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	7	$2.1K	8,763	0	+8,763	open	—	09-23 20:31
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$2.0K	2,222	2,222	+0	No	$0	04-18 13:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.9K	3,486	3,486	+0	No	-$59	04-18 13:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$1.7K	2,582	2,582	+0	No	-$329	04-18 13:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	54	$814	6,346	0	+6,346	open	—	07-25 21:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	4	$466	1,095	0	+1,095	Yes	+$628	05-07 13:30
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	3	$320	17,892	0	+17,892	No	-$320	02-11 19:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$227	270	0	+270	open	—	10-13 15:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$179	175	175	+0	No	-$21	04-18 13:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$161	303	303	+0	No	-$39	04-18 13:11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	1	$41	580	0	+580	open	—	09-23 20:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:30:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	550	10¢	$55	0x0b1ad0…
10-13 15:09:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	270	84¢	$227	0x5dc807…
10-13 13:33:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,241	12¢	$509	0xd13bc2…
10-13 10:51:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xd4c2c7…
10-13 09:59:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x323172…
10-13 08:43:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	12¢	$7	0xbb3ebe…
10-13 08:43:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x6396b9…
10-13 03:57:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xa5dcbc…
10-13 01:27:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	744	12¢	$89	0xa26809…
10-12 23:05:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xca36e0…
10-12 22:28:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	441	12¢	$53	0xe87a9d…
10-12 21:46:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xf02ece…
10-12 18:16:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	12¢	$27	0xc366ea…
10-12 17:24:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0x906d32…
10-12 17:01:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0xab9971…
10-12 16:24:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0xd7a54e…
10-12 16:01:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0xf11d17…
10-12 15:41:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0xcc8ab8…
10-12 15:34:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x635fbe…
10-12 15:29:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	12¢	$14	0x7154f1…
10-12 15:24:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	12¢	$33	0xb81527…
10-12 14:23:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	12¢	$34	0x44772a…
10-12 13:23:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	12¢	$34	0xac9686…
10-12 12:51:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x89ff68…
10-12 12:24:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x55e010…
10-12 12:14:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x72ad6c…
10-12 11:41:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x2df802…
10-12 11:30:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x26eb2c…
10-12 11:26:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,911	12¢	$1,429	0xdd3317…
10-12 11:26:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x1524b3…
09-30 19:27:15	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xaa24bc…
09-27 07:18:33	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	812	95¢	$770	0x027706…
09-27 07:15:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0xb352b1…
09-27 07:14:56	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	3,176	94¢	$3,000	0xd9677b…
09-26 19:55:36	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	666	95¢	$633	0x5642ce…
09-26 19:42:45	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x0a17ab…
09-26 19:42:30	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x96c90e…
09-26 19:42:24	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x4b2503…
09-26 19:42:20	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x72b421…
09-26 19:41:56	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	2,222	96¢	$2,122	0x384a30…
09-26 19:41:53	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$960	0xdd1b01…
09-26 19:41:14	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$960	0x08c72e…
09-26 19:39:44	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	288	95¢	$274	0x62c4ef…
09-26 19:39:42	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	3,500	95¢	$3,325	0x1ac02e…
09-26 19:35:17	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	111	96¢	$106	0xee5016…
09-26 19:35:17	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x79a721…
09-26 19:35:14	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	945	96¢	$903	0xb3b4be…
09-26 19:35:06	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	194	95¢	$185	0x15c2da…
09-26 19:34:06	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa40e91…
09-26 19:34:06	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	28	95¢	$27	0x9d2ef5…
09-26 19:34:06	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	102	95¢	$97	0x9c519c…
09-26 19:34:03	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	4,119	94¢	$3,869	0x738ad3…
09-26 19:34:03	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x54f8f6…
09-26 19:33:21	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$923	0x51b620…
09-26 19:32:47	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	274	92¢	$252	0x2862c9…
09-26 12:54:56	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	SELL	8,500	39¢	$3,315	0xfa478c…
09-26 06:16:47	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	120	97¢	$116	0xbe9661…
09-26 05:19:33	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	144	97¢	$139	0xaa2dc1…
09-26 05:09:27	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	8,500	38¢	$3,230	0x7789c7…
09-26 05:00:12	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	798	94¢	$754	0x12df3c…
09-26 04:59:06	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	485	94¢	$456	0x84ecbe…
09-25 21:27:33	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	12,000	94¢	$11,269	0xab162a…
09-25 21:26:54	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	19,845	95¢	$18,853	0x11a17e…
09-25 21:20:17	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0x91cece…
09-25 21:20:17	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	98	95¢	$93	0x4ea026…
09-25 21:20:17	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x277552…
09-25 21:19:44	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	10,330	97¢	$10,000	0x6d3c38…
09-25 21:19:27	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	10,527	95¢	$10,000	0x96ca81…
09-25 21:18:38	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	10,584	94¢	$10,000	0x3f6000…
09-25 21:11:45	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	No	BUY	3,000	93¢	$2,790	0x0050c5…
09-23 20:53:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	16¢	$4	0xa8812a…
09-23 20:53:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	16¢	$11	0x498117…
09-23 20:53:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	16¢	$96	0x3a487e…
09-23 20:51:41	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	580	7¢	$41	0x2aa95e…
09-23 20:38:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x710084…
09-23 20:31:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	28¢	$417	0x4b5021…
09-23 20:30:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,452	25¢	$621	0x407fa3…
09-23 20:30:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	26¢	$12	0x3a541f…
09-23 20:30:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xb95093…
09-23 20:29:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,783	17¢	$473	0x151a06…
09-23 20:28:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,306	16¢	$209	0xfffd47…
09-23 20:28:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,300	24¢	$312	0x07d51f…
09-23 15:39:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15,000	15¢	$2,250	0x96be21…
09-23 15:38:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,000	14¢	$1,540	0x530d2e…
09-23 15:37:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,100	23¢	$483	0x6546e9…
09-23 15:37:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,300	22¢	$286	0x05433b…
08-30 01:36:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	19¢	$12	0x396f97…
08-20 20:37:13	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	700	18¢	$126	0x2af13e…
08-20 20:36:24	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	18¢	$360	0x36f520…
08-20 20:35:54	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	18¢	$1,800	0x53c3db…
08-20 20:35:36	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	18¢	$1,800	0x2de3e1…
08-20 20:34:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5,000	18¢	$900	0x9bf6d0…
08-08 21:51:21	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfb6ef3…
08-08 21:50:43	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x2330a1…
07-25 21:30:30	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x2a2db9…
07-25 21:30:24	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x08b9fc…
07-25 21:30:18	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x89aab7…
07-25 21:30:12	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x18503c…
07-25 21:30:03	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	98	25¢	$24	0x2ab6d1…
07-25 21:28:57	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	600	14¢	$84	0x5fa95b…