Insidious-Sustainment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

168

Trades

319

lifetime

Volume

$699

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 06-09 08:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 69% -$4

Other

11% 58% -$8

Politics

6% 50% +$0

Sports

5% 47% -$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-09).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+14	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-15 11:57
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-77	-$1	0¢	$-0	+$0	05-28 15:21
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-8	-$2	1¢	$-0	+$2	05-15 11:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 12:10 UTC	4	$43	29	29	+0	Down	+$3	02-22 12:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 16:40 UTC	3	$26	30	19	+12	Down	-$10	02-23 16:44
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 14:40 UTC	1	$19	20	0	+20	Up	-$19	02-23 14:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 17:40 UTC	2	$17	12	12	+0	Down	+$7	02-22 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 17:15 UTC	2	$17	12	12	+0	Down	-$1	02-23 17:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-23 12:30 UTC	2	$16	8	8	+0	Up	+$0	02-23 12:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 17:10 UTC	2	$16	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	02-23 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 17:05 UTC	3	$15	14	12	+2	Down	+$1	02-23 17:06
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$5	03-06 23:50
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 13:50 UTC	2	$14	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	02-23 13:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 12:50 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Down	+$4	02-22 12:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 12:05 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Down	+$3	02-22 12:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 14:35 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	02-23 14:40
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 12:25 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	02-23 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 16:50 UTC	4	$13	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	02-23 16:54
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 14:25 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	02-23 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 17:30 UTC	2	$12	18	17	+0	Down	-$7	02-23 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 16:55 UTC	2	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	02-23 16:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 17:20 UTC	4	$10	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	02-23 17:24
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 12:20 UTC	2	$9	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	02-23 12:24
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 11:40 UTC	2	$9	5	5	+0	Down	+$2	02-23 11:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 12:40 UTC	2	$9	14	14	+0	Down	-$3	02-22 12:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 16:05 UTC	3	$8	10	0	+10	Up	-$8	02-23 16:07
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$8	11	0	+11	Yes	+$4	05-28 15:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 12:10 UTC	2	$8	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	02-23 12:14
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	6	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	-$1	04-25 12:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 13:40 UTC	2	$6	5	4	+0	Down	+$2	02-22 13:44
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	31	0	+31	No	-$5	06-09 08:03
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	1	$5	8	0	+8	Charles Oliveira	-$5	03-07 10:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	05-28 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 08:05:22	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x341c0e…
06-09 08:03:00	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x0b5f48…
05-28 15:28:19	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	69¢	$8	0x635db4…
05-28 15:21:21	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0xa60b6c…
05-28 15:21:16	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	77	1¢	$1	0x44069a…
05-28 15:21:14	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$0	0x51cdb8…
05-28 15:15:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x9b58f1…
05-28 15:11:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x03e6e0…
05-28 15:10:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd0ac3a…
05-28 14:53:07	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xe2f03b…
05-28 14:50:45	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0x69f0ee…
05-28 14:50:35	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x8175b5…
05-28 14:50:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x299a22…
05-28 14:50:17	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x9bbb26…
05-28 14:50:08	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0x0a506c…
05-28 14:50:01	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x218df0…
05-28 14:49:51	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	34	5¢	$2	0x214258…
05-28 14:49:40	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x7af745…
05-20 19:49:32	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x26b357…
05-20 19:40:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0f08d4…
05-20 19:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0xb00ed4…
05-20 19:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xaf1835…
05-20 19:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x33cf5f…
05-20 19:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xbb3202…
05-20 19:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2e60a8…
05-20 19:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5a84c9…
05-20 19:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x839d1e…
05-20 19:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4f23dc…
05-20 18:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x0201b5…
05-20 18:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x363807…
05-20 18:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfd71c3…
05-19 18:36:59	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x7a3917…
05-16 21:23:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 16?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x153107…
05-16 21:23:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x5ff66e…
05-16 21:23:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa2489c…
05-16 21:22:55	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe959db…
05-16 21:07:12	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf13c96…
05-15 11:57:15	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8770b5…
05-15 11:56:31	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x1045e8…
05-15 11:52:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x81dd7c…
05-15 11:52:36	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6ab0f2…
05-15 11:52:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6bdbdd…
05-15 11:50:32	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0xfcc437…
05-15 11:44:16	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x9d4992…
05-14 20:55:40	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xfb796b…
05-14 20:52:24	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x3abb2f…
04-30 15:32:10	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd97c0d…
04-30 15:26:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9e38bf…
04-30 15:26:02	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6cd3f1…
04-28 21:04:16	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x50842c…
04-28 20:28:18	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0xfbf082…
04-28 20:24:48	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xd13584…
04-28 15:33:36	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1dcf75…
04-28 15:32:18	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc5554b…
04-28 14:19:52	Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x400f64…
04-27 10:47:36	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x41e03d…
04-27 10:47:16	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x1954b2…
04-27 10:46:30	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	56	4¢	$2	0x65a93f…
04-26 12:31:06	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x040d97…
04-26 11:53:28	Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally	Caty McNally	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd33fce…
04-26 10:01:10	Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally	Caty McNally	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x74574c…
04-26 10:01:02	Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez	Zeynep Sonmez	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x596da7…
04-26 09:52:46	Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez	Zeynep Sonmez	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xb7f748…
04-25 12:11:20	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe21cb9…
04-25 12:01:40	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0x31b2f3…
04-25 12:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x08d037…
04-25 11:57:42	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	No	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x0dca4b…
04-25 11:36:14	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x8767db…
04-25 11:31:56	Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud	Casper Ruud	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x291820…
04-25 11:07:30	Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud	Casper Ruud	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf9ea15…
04-25 11:05:00	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x3ef70f…
04-25 10:47:08	Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xdcd7da…
04-25 10:21:14	Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xabb775…
04-25 10:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6aeecf…
04-25 10:15:08	Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0790e2…
04-25 10:14:34	Madrid Open: Laura Samson vs Anna Bondar	Anna Bondar	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x3bceea…
04-25 10:06:58	Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7ece19…
04-25 10:01:46	Madrid Open: Laura Samson vs Anna Bondar	Anna Bondar	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xbb1fff…
04-25 09:42:08	Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x9605b3…
04-25 09:35:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x87ab91…
04-25 00:25:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x6d87ec…
04-24 23:48:42	Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe268f7…
04-20 13:49:44	highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xce446e…
04-20 11:14:06	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x3ef704…
04-20 11:13:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x6ed574…
04-20 11:09:48	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5834ae…
04-20 11:08:20	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xe03a5b…
04-20 11:07:02	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xedd1a3…
04-20 10:58:58	highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xac9735…
04-13 09:26:37	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0dcced…
04-13 09:13:29	highest temperature in london on april 14 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3cdb5a…
04-13 09:13:23	highest temperature in london on april 14 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x55b7fa…
04-13 09:13:17	highest temperature in london on april 14 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x8ab59d…
04-13 00:39:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x265593…
04-09 10:14:55	Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x6ff067…
04-05 18:13:47	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x53bc23…
04-05 18:06:43	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xb02cc7…
04-05 18:02:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x576283…
04-05 17:37:03	will tadej pogacar win the 2026 mens tour de flanders 186	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x5d1f9f…
04-04 22:20:29	will tadej pogacar win the 2026 mens tour de flanders 186	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x85b0ed…