Dark-Guess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$157

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.4%

Resolved

230

Trades

587

lifetime

Volume

$931

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 07-24 03:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 25% -$168

Politics

13% 21% +$23

Other

5% 4% -$11

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	4	$68	62	62	+0	Down	+$54	05-18 19:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$44	91	91	+0	No	+$42	05-23 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$30	202	0	+202	Up	-$30	05-18 19:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	6	$20	74	9	+66	Down	-$5	05-20 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	4	$20	328	0	+328	Up	-$20	05-18 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	3	$19	20	20	+0	Up	+$15	05-20 12:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	5	$16	24	12	+13	Down	+$0	05-20 08:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	4	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-20 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	4	$15	36	13	+23	Up	+$1	05-20 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	6	$15	40	18	+23	Down	+$5	05-29 04:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	5	$14	20	7	+13	Up	-$2	05-20 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	4	$13	21	13	+8	Down	+$4	05-19 16:11
DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 10:15 UTC	4	$13	17	0	+17	Up	-$13	06-19 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	7	$13	20	9	+11	Up	+$1	05-20 00:27
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	7	$12	82	82	+0	No	-$1	06-21 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	3	$12	31	0	+31	Down	-$12	05-20 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	3	$12	26	12	+13	Down	+$8	05-29 02:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	5	$11	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-20 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$10	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	05-19 15:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	6	$10	60	3	+57	Down	-$4	05-20 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$9	186	0	+186	Up	-$9	05-18 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$9	7	7	+0	Up	+$5	05-18 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	3	$8	106	6	+100	Down	+$2	05-20 11:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	4	$8	40	4	+36	Down	$0	05-19 10:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	3	$8	7	5	+2	Down	+$2	05-19 08:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$6	05-18 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	4	$8	114	4	+110	Up	$0	05-19 08:30
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	4	$7	9	3	+6	Up	-$1	05-29 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$7	145	0	+145	Up	-$7	05-18 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	3	$7	89	0	+89	Up	-$7	05-27 00:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 03:47:51	farsi island no longer under iranian control by july 31 20260720013631152	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xfa9a60…
07-24 03:47:49	farsi island no longer under iranian control by july 31 20260720013631152	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc6e409…
07-23 23:26:30	farsi island no longer under iranian control by july 31 20260720013631152	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xebd696…
07-23 23:24:51	farsi island no longer under iranian control by july 31 20260720013631152	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x281d88…
07-19 00:07:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x362028…
07-16 15:24:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xe1a97f…
07-06 10:33:29	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xc93b5b…
07-04 14:18:44	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xad1a14…
06-25 13:13:26	Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Yes	BUY	180	0¢	$0	0x384523…
06-22 18:22:04	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x94489d…
06-22 18:22:04	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	252	0¢	$0	0x4ee16d…
06-22 14:35:31	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x544945…
06-22 13:12:40	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x9c8259…
06-22 12:52:17	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xef4d8e…
06-22 11:33:02	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x1a5a7f…
06-22 09:13:58	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xddd8d9…
06-22 09:10:20	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xd7d8bb…
06-22 05:20:29	Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Yes	BUY	157	0¢	$0	0x127131…
06-22 05:20:28	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Yes	BUY	49	0¢	$0	0xfe9a80…
06-22 05:20:28	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Yes	BUY	201	0¢	$0	0x9f5b39…
06-21 17:58:56	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xfa72d8…
06-21 17:42:40	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0x5aeb1b…
06-21 17:42:20	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x3ef568…
06-21 17:41:17	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x797187…
06-20 01:08:53	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x0843e8…
06-20 01:07:04	Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x223f56…
06-20 01:05:58	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x0fb715…
06-19 13:07:04	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xb17c08…
06-19 10:56:14	Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xaad564…
06-19 10:51:34	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xbc4f49…
06-19 10:23:22	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x9a9dab…
06-19 10:23:20	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xb73291…
06-19 10:19:10	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x88eb32…
06-19 10:18:43	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x59ef3e…
06-19 10:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xaeec98…
06-19 10:11:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5d9f74…
06-19 10:06:58	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9873ae…
06-19 09:59:40	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xb17f97…
06-19 09:54:16	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x2eb158…
06-17 21:43:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xecd688…
06-17 21:33:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xaf449c…
06-17 20:07:58	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0xec6088…
06-17 18:00:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xaa016b…
06-17 17:18:11	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x8c264e…
06-17 15:51:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0x44dfc1…
06-17 15:50:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x11b313…
06-17 15:50:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0xd91d6d…
06-17 15:36:56	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb60f9f…
06-17 10:29:49	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$0	0xd85a74…
06-17 10:29:19	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x7093cc…
06-17 10:29:02	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xfa3d0c…
06-17 10:28:38	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x03a879…
06-16 14:34:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	111	0¢	$1	0x6786c2…
06-16 13:23:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc9cbfc…
06-16 13:22:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	57¢	$1	0x4a8cbb…
06-16 13:16:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf7be20…
06-16 13:11:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0x357651…
06-16 08:37:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x76bb6f…
06-15 10:34:06	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x9791d9…
06-15 10:32:12	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x1b62b0…
06-08 23:41:06	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x887990…
06-08 22:29:36	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0x537a9c…
06-08 21:47:49	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd5f249…
06-08 21:38:10	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8a2986…
06-08 21:38:07	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb46655…
06-08 21:37:19	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf89b84…
06-08 21:36:57	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x8a66b3…
06-08 21:36:10	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x904a96…
06-08 21:23:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x75612f…
06-08 21:23:39	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x3a5fbd…
06-08 21:16:27	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x070b38…
06-08 21:15:42	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x91fbe0…
06-08 21:08:24	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb8a938…
06-08 21:03:57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Yes	BUY	261	0¢	$1	0x754a09…
06-08 20:59:54	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x10fead…
06-08 20:59:30	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe6506f…
06-08 20:55:42	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x83c541…
06-08 11:33:04	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x450f0b…
06-08 11:32:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xe7d613…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc2c54d…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6ed0a7…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5c2b2b…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x56c1ed…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x52be04…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4dcba3…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x257c41…
06-08 03:04:57	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x123cc6…
06-07 14:11:22	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb44fe4…
06-07 11:48:51	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xb9660e…
06-07 11:02:28	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x2cb59b…
06-07 10:39:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x836450…
06-07 10:39:10	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x894e5a…
06-07 10:36:52	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xd87911…
06-07 09:53:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xf0eec2…
06-07 09:52:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x554510…
06-07 08:57:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-07 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x006333…
06-07 08:56:13	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x06995b…
06-06 22:51:16	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x2ecc93…
06-06 22:50:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc10231…
06-06 22:47:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc917c6…