Muffled-Bulb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$135

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

214

lifetime

Volume

$32.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

$230

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-03 08:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

75% 100% +$92

Politics

17% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

3% 100% +$43

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No		+119	$100	100¢	$119	+$19	06-03 08:40
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	No		+112	$100	100¢	$111	+$11	06-03 08:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	29	$8.9K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	03-17 16:01
cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	5	$4.5K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	03-17 09:46
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	34	$3.4K	11,001	10,776	+225	open	—	02-27 09:37
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	8	$2.1K	1,769	1,769	+0	open	—	02-27 10:56
will the epstein files be the 1 apple podcast by march 15	4	$708	380	380	+0	open	—	02-23 14:18
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$629	347	347	+0	open	—	02-25 13:25
us issues do not travel warning for jalisco state by february 28 2026 348	4	$530	300	300	+0	open	—	02-23 14:05
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	3	$510	580	0	+580	open	—	02-04 17:40
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	1	$507	570	0	+570	open	—	01-26 11:34
will there be 20 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	4	$493	250	250	+0	open	—	02-25 08:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$400	460	0	+460	open	—	01-27 11:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$308	328	0	+328	open	—	05-11 08:44
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	6	$254	270	0	+270	open	—	04-23 17:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$251	255	0	+255	open	—	04-15 10:01
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	1	$250	312	0	+312	open	—	05-14 06:02
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	1	$250	319	0	+319	open	—	02-04 09:49
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$250	263	0	+263	Yes	+$13	04-15 09:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$250	309	0	+309	open	—	01-26 11:32
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	1	$250	301	0	+301	open	—	02-04 09:48
will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$250	306	0	+306	open	—	04-04 17:10
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	1	$250	305	0	+305	open	—	01-26 11:37
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$250	320	0	+320	open	—	02-11 10:58
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 30 in february	2	$249	134	134	+0	open	—	02-27 10:49
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	4	$249	300	0	+300	open	—	02-11 13:21
kraken ipo by march 31 2026	1	$200	225	0	+225	open	—	02-04 09:54
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$200	235	0	+235	open	—	02-04 09:34
will jaxon smith njigba win the super bowl lx mvp	1	$200	233	0	+233	open	—	02-04 09:37
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$200	232	0	+232	open	—	04-04 17:10
trump out as president by march 31	4	$192	193	0	+193	open	—	03-25 11:25
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$191	230	0	+230	No	+$39	02-11 09:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 08:49:53	OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0xda4e68…
06-03 08:46:41	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0xad4579…
06-03 08:43:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0xf28db7…
06-03 08:43:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xf767a5…
06-03 08:42:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x995e8b…
06-03 08:42:29	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x6a389c…
06-03 08:40:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xe38d5f…
05-18 09:39:52	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x3bf857…
05-18 09:39:43	Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x550ba7…
05-18 09:39:34	Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xcf14e3…
05-14 17:17:50	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x0007c9…
05-14 06:51:53	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xe7f178…
05-14 06:02:14	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	312	80¢	$250	0x8058ff…
05-11 08:44:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	328	94¢	$308	0xe98042…
05-11 06:22:12	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x9591f3…
05-07 10:02:35	LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Weibo Gaming	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x272499…
04-27 10:27:22	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	22	85¢	$18	0xf1506a…
04-27 10:27:22	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xd57583…
04-27 10:25:12	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x8dc0ea…
04-27 10:24:04	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	140	16¢	$22	0xeac607…
04-27 10:24:04	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$9	0x2235ce…
04-24 19:04:18	Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$57	0xbe8534…
04-24 19:04:16	Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	94¢	$85	0x9f8c52…
04-23 17:57:08	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	97	94¢	$91	0xe081b6…
04-23 17:53:58	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0x1b351d…
04-23 17:49:50	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x61ac30…
04-23 17:18:50	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x7a4ce4…
04-23 15:31:52	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x099dc5…
04-23 14:27:58	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xcfd0d3…
04-22 08:27:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x09c5b1…
04-22 08:26:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$8	0x774909…
04-22 08:24:52	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	No	BUY	152	98¢	$150	0x682fc9…
04-22 08:24:22	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xc61f93…
04-22 08:24:12	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x65edc5…
04-22 08:23:58	Will Trump meet with Mark Zuckerberg in April 2026?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x493533…
04-22 08:23:32	Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in April 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xac0900…
04-22 08:23:20	Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xe5e4c3…
04-22 08:17:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xf41a9e…
04-15 14:12:24	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	BUY	54	82¢	$45	0x1495d8…
04-15 13:59:28	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xa824d9…
04-15 13:34:18	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x875532…
04-15 11:07:38	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x837c91…
04-15 10:01:44	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1ac8f7…
04-15 10:00:34	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x54dadc…
04-15 09:59:42	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0xb91f62…
04-15 09:53:36	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x254b24…
04-15 09:51:28	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbc6423…
04-15 09:50:12	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x826a50…
04-15 09:49:58	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xce5e3b…
04-15 09:48:42	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	263	95¢	$250	0x7b093c…
04-15 09:47:40	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8f9c13…
04-15 09:47:04	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0x9a7d39…
04-15 09:47:04	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x2b704f…
04-15 09:43:52	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x2b28be…
04-15 09:40:18	trump announces attorney general pick by april 17 2026	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0xbd9ea7…
04-04 17:10:13	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xea815e…
04-04 17:10:03	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	183	82¢	$150	0x717623…
04-04 17:09:53	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x7d78bc…
04-04 17:09:43	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x84c4d2…
03-25 11:25:23	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	43	100¢	$42	0x42c191…
03-25 11:20:21	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x93bc0d…
03-25 11:20:21	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x89c51b…
03-25 11:19:01	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x65dd2e…
03-25 10:54:17	will vitality win blast open rotterdam 2026	Yes	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0xe27fb6…
03-17 16:01:41	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	SELL	4,500	51¢	$2,274	0x0114cc…
03-17 16:00:41	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	BUY	819	51¢	$417	0x5baf19…
03-17 16:00:03	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	BUY	3,681	51¢	$1,874	0x54735e…
03-17 15:32:27	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	SELL	4,500	48¢	$2,169	0x5d9f1e…
03-17 15:26:41	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	91	48¢	$44	0x83d55a…
03-17 15:26:41	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	2,059	48¢	$994	0x18cc23…
03-17 15:26:29	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3b4814…
03-17 15:26:11	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0xd8b119…
03-17 15:26:11	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0xcdc746…
03-17 15:25:53	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xaf0f9a…
03-17 15:25:53	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	60	48¢	$29	0x72ace9…
03-17 15:25:53	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x42cfc7…
03-17 15:25:47	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0xbb841c…
03-17 15:25:47	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x9929ac…
03-17 15:25:31	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	70	48¢	$34	0x7b835f…
03-17 15:25:31	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x0ca6a0…
03-17 15:25:13	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	1,338	48¢	$646	0xe5b166…
03-17 15:25:03	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	36	48¢	$17	0x6bc429…
03-17 15:25:01	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0xabbfd3…
03-17 15:25:01	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	45	48¢	$22	0x60ec73…
03-17 15:24:53	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xc18e77…
03-17 15:24:49	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	443	48¢	$214	0x86b1b5…
03-17 15:24:45	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0xdc16f5…
03-17 15:24:17	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xf6fcfd…
03-17 15:24:09	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x311b2a…
03-17 15:24:05	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xb6a05c…
03-17 15:24:03	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa7a047…
03-17 15:24:01	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa18b21…
03-17 15:23:57	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xaf5388…
03-17 09:46:33	cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	North Carolina State Wolfpack	SELL	4,500	50¢	$2,250	0xcc5756…
03-17 09:45:17	cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	North Carolina State Wolfpack	BUY	108	50¢	$54	0x938ef7…
03-17 09:43:47	cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	North Carolina State Wolfpack	BUY	980	50¢	$490	0xf491c0…
03-17 09:43:39	cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	North Carolina State Wolfpack	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xb94152…
03-17 09:43:33	cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	North Carolina State Wolfpack	BUY	3,292	50¢	$1,646	0x1ba161…
02-27 10:56:25	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	No	SELL	694	28¢	$194	0x0f9f6b…
02-27 10:52:49	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	No	BUY	694	28¢	$194	0x55e983…