Dual-Appliance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

219

lifetime

Volume

$5.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 05-18 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 100% +$8

Other

37% 0% $-1

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	21	$999	558	558	+0	open	—	05-18 03:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	36	$528	293	293	+0	open	—	05-18 18:05
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	7	$291	235	235	+0	open	—	05-06 15:18
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	10	$291	154	154	+0	open	—	05-18 18:05
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	14	$290	159	159	+0	open	—	05-17 11:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$270	175	175	+0	open	—	05-18 18:06
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	3	$212	110	110	+0	open	—	05-11 00:03
Iran leadership change by May 31?	4	$180	99	99	+0	open	—	05-16 18:08
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	15	$171	224	224	+0	open	—	05-18 18:07
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	3	$160	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	05-04 19:31
Kash Patel out by May 31?	4	$148	88	88	+0	open	—	05-17 02:04
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?	3	$144	73	73	+0	open	—	05-16 02:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$140	80	80	+0	open	—	05-11 00:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$131	73	73	+0	open	—	05-06 09:29
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	4	$116	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 15:18
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$100	70	70	+0	open	—	05-02 20:14
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?	2	$90	47	47	+0	open	—	05-05 15:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	05-16 15:11
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	5	$78	59	40	+19	open	—	04-30 18:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$72	100	100	+0	open	—	05-11 00:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$66	36	36	+0	No	+$4	05-06 11:47
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31?	2	$62	41	41	+0	open	—	04-29 10:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$53	36	36	+0	open	—	05-15 10:09
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	3	$44	29	29	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 19:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$44	25	25	+0	open	—	05-05 23:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$39	115	115	+0	open	—	05-09 23:32
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	03-10 08:32
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$33	22	22	+0	open	—	03-22 02:56
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$28	36	36	+0	open	—	05-08 14:54
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$27	50	50	+0	open	—	05-11 18:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 18:07:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x047c83…
05-18 18:06:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0xc11730…
05-18 18:05:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0x8cca6a…
05-18 18:05:23	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xa74d50…
05-18 03:57:20	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	394	86¢	$338	0xfbe6ae…
05-18 03:54:26	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	89¢	$50	0x3c2e42…
05-18 03:31:19	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	90¢	$98	0x01cb4d…
05-17 23:40:41	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x0ce807…
05-17 23:40:17	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	92¢	$81	0x1f385f…
05-17 23:37:41	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	91¢	$87	0x22d4c5…
05-17 23:37:24	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0xac6244…
05-17 23:37:01	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0x5d9272…
05-17 23:36:38	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x76c9f1…
05-17 23:27:37	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xab40ed…
05-17 23:09:50	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x4859d5…
05-17 23:09:22	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0xe50b92…
05-17 23:03:58	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$13	0xa462bd…
05-17 13:49:15	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	92¢	$32	0xf2cfc4…
05-17 11:46:01	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x6c5bd4…
05-17 02:04:28	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	42	86¢	$36	0x29bba9…
05-16 23:27:08	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xd3adb2…
05-16 20:42:24	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xe834a9…
05-16 18:12:12	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xd3d1f1…
05-16 18:08:59	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x60ca74…
05-16 15:13:03	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	92¢	$52	0x0bba3b…
05-16 15:11:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x1689bc…
05-16 10:49:41	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xd29df8…
05-16 10:49:08	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7f8d97…
05-16 10:25:30	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x34e8e3…
05-16 07:45:02	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0xb3d85b…
05-16 02:54:30	Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0x183869…
05-15 23:33:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x90d726…
05-15 22:58:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x91f6e6…
05-15 21:31:23	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x9b44a5…
05-15 20:18:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x845f56…
05-15 15:30:59	Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xdb00c4…
05-15 15:21:19	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x0f6209…
05-15 15:04:38	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe8e5bb…
05-15 13:01:39	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x7055ff…
05-15 12:46:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x5c1aa8…
05-15 11:52:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x824537…
05-15 11:19:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb6366d…
05-15 11:14:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x9efb0e…
05-15 11:07:08	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x9c1997…
05-15 10:50:18	Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0xc8ddb5…
05-15 10:49:26	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x75fc2f…
05-15 10:09:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	36	73¢	$26	0xc5aa10…
05-15 09:07:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x455e75…
05-15 09:03:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x1a87c5…
05-15 08:53:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe2e4b2…
05-15 07:36:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x013d9a…
05-15 04:21:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x942fa4…
05-15 03:24:35	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0xb16c22…
05-14 22:46:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0x208050…
05-14 19:55:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x712742…
05-14 19:07:35	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x79ef38…
05-14 18:54:05	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x27ddfc…
05-14 18:43:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xe1f813…
05-14 18:30:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x9f1939…
05-14 17:29:56	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xb0ea04…
05-14 17:08:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xcfd6b2…
05-14 17:06:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0xaafe53…
05-14 16:08:07	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x62768a…
05-14 13:42:15	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc37457…
05-14 13:05:20	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x24573d…
05-14 12:57:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xd3ddce…
05-14 12:23:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x05b120…
05-14 12:06:53	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x20cb17…
05-14 11:15:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0xfec500…
05-14 10:35:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x75e8cc…
05-14 08:27:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x12a995…
05-14 08:00:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x8ddec7…
05-14 07:59:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x347c3e…
05-14 05:36:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x3d75f4…
05-13 21:29:47	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xee89b5…
05-13 20:42:34	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xf1a1a1…
05-13 17:38:26	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xaeaacb…
05-13 17:29:08	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xd5d669…
05-13 17:22:55	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x071868…
05-13 17:18:46	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x59e20e…
05-13 16:58:06	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x86f927…
05-13 16:55:46	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x6d8eec…
05-13 03:02:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xf6c30a…
05-12 23:48:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xad1f0b…
05-12 22:42:11	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x2cefe9…
05-12 22:21:30	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x597e63…
05-12 22:07:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x0fc030…
05-12 22:04:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0x759fc9…
05-12 20:22:06	Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xa6a4ce…
05-12 17:13:41	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xcef273…
05-12 17:06:32	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x0ff838…
05-12 16:56:00	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xf71dcf…
05-12 14:30:58	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	66	92¢	$61	0x0157f8…
05-12 12:00:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0xa5ce97…
05-12 11:43:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x825660…
05-12 04:01:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0x2f80f5…
05-12 03:21:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x3a4a0b…
05-12 01:06:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0xba7fed…
05-11 22:44:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0xb973cb…
05-11 18:26:23	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x68614c…