Muffled-Architect — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$188

Unrealized P&L

-$166

Hit rate

77.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$27.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$400

Open exposure

$35

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 08-13 23:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Crypto

34% 92% -$30

Politics

31% 83% +$125

Other

19% 75% +$33

Sports

16% 100% +$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+364	$200	10¢	$35	-$166	08-13 23:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,130	1,130	+0	No	+$21	05-23 03:20
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$2.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$50	06-17 20:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$0	05-27 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$2.1K	1,629	1,629	+0	No	-$5	05-27 12:22
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$2.0K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$10	06-09 09:27
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.9K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	-$37	05-29 02:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$20	05-27 14:10
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	1	$1.1K	1,130	0	+1,130	No	+$11	05-31 19:25
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	4	$1.1K	1,115	0	+1,115	Yes	+$1	05-16 16:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$1.1K	1,111	0	+1,111	No	+$8	05-14 11:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,105	0	+1,105	No	+$4	05-12 17:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$88	05-07 15:59
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4?	1	$1.0K	1,013	0	+1,013	No	+$1	05-04 14:07
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30?	1	$1.0K	1,012	0	+1,012	No	+$1	05-01 04:00
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$1.0K	1,011	0	+1,011	No	+$3	04-29 20:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?	2	$1.0K	1,008	0	+1,008	No	+$1	04-29 15:35
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 27?	1	$1.0K	1,006	0	+1,006	Yes	+$1	04-27 08:46
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 28?	1	$902	903	0	+903	No	+$1	04-28 14:18
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 5?	1	$854	855	0	+855	Yes	+$1	05-05 13:50
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	1	$201	208	0	+208	No	+$7	07-17 23:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$200	364	0	+364	open	—	08-13 23:17
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 5?	1	$159	159	0	+159	No	+$0	05-05 13:51
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 28?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	04-28 14:17
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 28?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-28 14:15
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 28?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	04-28 14:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 23:17:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0x1012cc…
07-17 23:15:37	Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	No	BUY	208	97¢	$201	0x4eafd4…
06-17 20:29:16	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10,000	11¢	$1,140	0x3b204c…
06-09 17:24:00	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,161	11¢	$345	0x293b69…
06-09 17:23:19	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,248	11¢	$572	0x6be568…
06-09 17:23:09	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x6f800f…
06-09 17:23:07	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x54ec08…
06-09 17:22:43	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xa70059…
06-09 17:22:39	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,506	11¢	$164	0x394944…
06-09 09:27:30	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,064	10¢	$206	0xec93c5…
06-09 09:26:24	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	968	10¢	$97	0xb7045d…
06-09 09:25:45	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xe1493d…
06-09 09:25:13	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	94	10¢	$9	0x4ef8ca…
06-09 09:23:27	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x396910…
06-09 09:22:04	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x544b2f…
06-09 09:14:21	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	10¢	$200	0xbc6fa8…
06-09 09:13:51	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x58e522…
06-09 09:13:51	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	247	10¢	$25	0x3d2540…
06-09 09:12:04	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xb8b292…
06-09 09:09:18	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,282	10¢	$128	0x5f5139…
06-09 09:08:52	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x6d398c…
06-09 09:08:04	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x835e9b…
06-09 09:08:03	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,394	10¢	$139	0xf8e126…
06-09 09:08:01	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,576	10¢	$158	0xcece00…
06-08 17:11:34	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,803	10¢	$277	0xac1287…
06-08 17:10:58	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,682	10¢	$464	0x9a82a5…
06-08 17:10:22	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,515	10¢	$249	0x533415…
05-31 19:25:54	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	1,130	99¢	$1,119	0x916132…
05-29 02:10:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,100	87¢	$953	0x3f669b…
05-28 10:09:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	790	90¢	$711	0x084385…
05-28 10:08:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x9576ed…
05-28 10:08:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x4f1f0b…
05-27 19:26:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0x17bd15…
05-27 17:23:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0xb074e8…
05-27 14:10:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,000	44¢	$880	0xb5cee4…
05-27 12:23:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2,000	43¢	$860	0x3a7888…
05-27 12:22:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,614	63¢	$1,017	0x624431…
05-27 12:22:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x6c003f…
05-27 12:22:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x05f3ad…
05-26 11:21:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0xb24818…
05-26 11:21:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x503fd6…
05-26 11:21:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,556	63¢	$984	0x566dd7…
05-25 15:07:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x524f87…
05-23 03:20:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	1,130	100¢	$1,128	0x3da3a0…
05-20 14:15:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,130	98¢	$1,106	0x226fe1…
05-16 16:12:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	137	100¢	$137	0x6226ff…
05-16 16:12:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xc38791…
05-16 15:59:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	900	100¢	$899	0xb7afe6…
05-16 15:59:03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2ec319…
05-14 11:07:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x39c143…
05-14 11:06:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc781ab…
05-14 11:05:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	402	99¢	$400	0x9de4c1…
05-14 10:58:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	392	99¢	$389	0x86f2b2…
05-14 10:54:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	252	99¢	$250	0x2e4bc9…
05-12 17:39:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,105	100¢	$1,101	0xad28c3…
05-07 15:59:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,100	92¢	$1,012	0x06c2ab…
05-05 13:51:30	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 5?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xd947f8…
05-05 13:50:42	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	855	100¢	$854	0x5391a9…
05-04 14:07:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4?	No	BUY	1,013	100¢	$1,012	0x561749…
05-01 04:00:24	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30?	No	BUY	1,012	100¢	$1,011	0xaf34e8…
04-29 20:53:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1,011	100¢	$1,008	0x662e80…
04-29 15:35:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	908	100¢	$907	0x69fd73…
04-29 15:32:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xcb72f0…
04-28 14:18:08	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 28?	No	BUY	903	100¢	$902	0x68ac61…
04-28 14:17:26	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 28?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x4820b0…
04-28 14:16:58	Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 28?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1c8da7…
04-28 14:15:32	Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 28?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xcb288d…
04-27 08:46:26	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	1,006	100¢	$1,005	0x481aa9…