Taut-Bin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-18 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$1

Sports

26% 0% $-0

Politics

13% — —

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$497	252	252	+0	No	$-0	04-16 21:23
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	8	$461	758	758	+0	open	—	04-19 12:05
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$232	128	127	+1	open	—	04-25 18:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	8	$167	183	183	+0	open	—	06-14 10:19
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$122	498	498	+0	open	—	04-19 01:12
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	6	$97	99	99	+0	open	—	06-05 03:19
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	6	$86	113	113	+0	open	—	06-16 15:38
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	5	$84	82	82	+0	open	—	06-11 01:49
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$75	39	39	+0	open	—	06-02 03:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$70	42	42	+0	open	—	06-13 09:25
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	2	$64	36	36	+0	open	—	06-19 10:18
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	3	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	06-17 01:00
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$60	550	550	+0	Yes	+$1	04-18 03:31
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$58	31	31	+0	open	—	06-14 03:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	2	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	06-18 13:40
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$47	27	27	+0	open	—	05-25 08:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$29	21	21	+0	open	—	05-21 17:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	4	$27	71	71	+0	open	—	06-05 23:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$16	37	37	+0	open	—	06-06 10:18
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	2	$9	38	38	+0	open	—	06-18 18:00
Iran leadership change by June 30?	4	$6	81	81	+0	open	—	06-04 15:29
Netanyahu out by June 30?	6	$5	146	146	+0	open	—	06-10 20:49
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$5	82	82	+0	open	—	06-08 17:58
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	2	$3	7	7	+0	open	—	06-10 10:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 10:18:04	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	89¢	$32	0xa599fb…
06-19 09:09:14	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	89¢	$32	0x214b5c…
06-18 18:00:37	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	12¢	$5	0x0eb0b9…
06-18 16:25:41	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	38	12¢	$5	0x75c12f…
06-18 13:40:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x1085ea…
06-18 08:46:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xb42126…
06-17 01:00:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0xa03cfd…
06-17 01:00:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x1b2cfa…
06-17 01:00:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x064d81…
06-16 15:38:34	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0xdedcdb…
06-14 10:19:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	74	43¢	$32	0x0bc175…
06-14 08:11:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	74	43¢	$32	0x87ddb3…
06-14 03:44:28	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x8c5f4e…
06-13 23:22:51	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xa8897a…
06-13 23:16:54	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	74	7¢	$5	0x385671…
06-13 18:39:18	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	77	16¢	$12	0xcd209d…
06-13 09:25:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x366fc1…
06-13 09:25:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	28	84¢	$24	0x43febd…
06-13 06:51:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	83¢	$35	0xb4b93c…
06-13 03:05:22	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x629a08…
06-13 01:46:31	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3b2a1d…
06-13 00:25:00	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x88c156…
06-12 22:13:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	58	46¢	$27	0xd1010b…
06-12 17:36:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	58	50¢	$29	0x8b4614…
06-12 09:25:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xf04ff2…
06-12 09:25:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	47¢	$6	0x962a85…
06-12 09:25:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	33	47¢	$16	0x2edc64…
06-12 09:23:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	51	47¢	$24	0x54fb86…
06-11 01:49:36	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x9b438d…
06-11 01:04:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xb0dd0f…
06-10 20:49:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xc6ca8f…
06-10 20:49:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x9cecfc…
06-10 20:49:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x946f79…
06-10 20:49:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xc45bcf…
06-10 20:49:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xbd6c5f…
06-10 18:10:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	146	2¢	$3	0xd3e47a…
06-10 10:35:06	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x0e8881…
06-10 07:58:22	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0xc2f51d…
06-08 17:58:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	3¢	$3	0xc457bb…
06-08 15:49:39	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$3	0xe88e4f…
06-06 10:18:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	21¢	$8	0x363823…
06-06 08:33:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	21¢	$8	0xfeed55…
06-05 23:59:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	71	19¢	$13	0xeb5776…
06-05 22:47:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x91f89c…
06-05 22:46:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	43	19¢	$8	0x7a2aed…
06-05 22:46:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x684b55…
06-05 11:00:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x4b2326…
06-05 09:11:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd85559…
06-05 09:11:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x555fc5…
06-05 03:19:22	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x138020…
06-05 03:18:57	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	33	45¢	$15	0xe3403a…
06-05 01:22:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	41	45¢	$18	0xa4e117…
06-04 15:29:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0x6bda53…
06-04 15:29:51	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0xf5d5c3…
06-04 13:01:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0xa2aa6b…
06-04 13:01:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x4b42b3…
06-02 18:24:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	46	52¢	$24	0x4c9e21…
06-02 18:23:54	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0x435e22…
06-02 13:09:50	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xa99316…
06-02 03:06:05	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	39	96¢	$37	0x2a4e28…
06-02 00:10:32	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0xa6aa70…
05-25 08:39:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	89¢	$24	0x98dbdb…
05-25 06:22:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0xb593eb…
05-21 17:51:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	63¢	$13	0x1e21f9…
05-21 16:31:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x991cf0…
04-25 18:18:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	114	92¢	$105	0xe9a8fc…
04-25 18:18:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x0fef44…
04-25 16:49:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	128	90¢	$115	0xde8190…
04-19 12:05:40	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	223	99¢	$220	0xe6dce0…
04-19 12:05:40	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x73c439…
04-19 08:22:06	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	227	99¢	$224	0x2cd21b…
04-19 01:12:32	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	498	12¢	$61	0xf930e6…
04-18 23:27:34	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	245	12¢	$30	0x0a5a7d…
04-18 23:27:34	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	253	12¢	$31	0x05a2de…
04-18 03:31:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	240	6¢	$13	0xbef07f…
04-18 03:31:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	310	6¢	$17	0x23d2d7…
04-18 01:34:32	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	550	5¢	$30	0x70b287…
04-16 21:23:28	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	252	98¢	$248	0x212bbd…
04-16 18:46:32	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	252	99¢	$248	0xe9ef8a…
04-16 09:40:22	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	437	1¢	$5	0xc4787e…
04-16 09:40:22	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	94	1¢	$1	0x8b708a…
04-16 08:07:28	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$1	0x9e1c00…
04-16 08:07:28	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	244	1¢	$3	0x81d2e3…
04-16 08:07:28	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	242	1¢	$3	0x5851b3…