Surprised-Essay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

362

lifetime

Volume

$2.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 06-15 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

43% — —

Other

40% 100% +$17

Politics

13% 50% +$1

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?	2	$53	54	54	+0	open	—	06-03 17:43
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	6	$51	278	278	+0	open	—	04-02 07:07
will msft dip to 405 in june 2026	3	$50	120	0	+120	open	—	06-07 16:57
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	3	$46	228	0	+228	open	—	05-20 18:40
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$45	29	29	+0	open	—	03-16 09:51
will msft reach 480 in june 2026	2	$42	225	0	+225	open	—	06-05 14:01
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$42	50	0	+50	Yes	+$8	05-03 14:39
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	3	$41	57	57	+0	open	—	05-26 10:36
btc updown 5m 1772115900	2	$38	32	32	+0	open	—	02-26 14:29
btc updown 5m 1772091300	2	$37	28	27	+0	open	—	02-26 07:41
btc updown 5m 1772080800	2	$37	50	50	+0	open	—	02-26 04:43
btc updown 5m 1772379900	2	$36	33	33	+0	open	—	03-01 15:47
btc updown 5m 1772116200	2	$36	25	24	+0	open	—	02-26 14:31
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$35	100	200	-100	open	—	02-26 17:54
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	2	$31	35	35	+0	open	—	02-28 09:30
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?	2	$31	30	30	+0	open	—	06-03 17:44
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	1	$30	50	0	+50	open	—	05-10 19:08
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	05-19 12:07
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	2	$29	48	48	+0	open	—	05-15 12:17
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?	2	$26	50	8	+42	open	—	04-28 06:09
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$26	38	38	+0	open	—	04-17 16:23
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	4	$24	132	0	+132	open	—	06-02 15:07
btc updown 5m 1772086200	2	$22	50	49	+0	open	—	02-26 06:12
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$21	30	0	+30	Yes	+$9	05-03 14:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	59	59	+0	Yes	+$1	03-02 14:45
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$21	28	28	+0	open	—	04-17 16:23
eth updown 5m 1781520600	2	$21	60	0	+60	open	—	06-15 10:52
btc updown 5m 1772394000	1	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	03-01 19:41
btc updown 5m 1772380200	2	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	03-01 15:54
btc updown 5m 1772081400	5	$20	59	59	+0	open	—	02-26 04:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 21:04:09	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcad2ec…
06-15 21:02:42	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 spread away 1pt5	Uruguay	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xea78bb…
06-15 10:55:24	eth updown 5m 1781520900	Down	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0xcb9b99…
06-15 10:52:03	eth updown 5m 1781520600	Down	BUY	48	33¢	$16	0x7e9ad0…
06-15 10:50:33	eth updown 5m 1781520600	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x3a03a5…
06-15 10:42:15	eth updown 5m 1781520000	Down	SELL	46	20¢	$9	0x97e3cb…
06-15 09:40:21	eth updown 5m 1781516400	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x74d716…
06-15 09:37:51	eth updown 5m 1781516100	Up	SELL	15	50¢	$7	0xe51999…
06-15 09:36:52	eth updown 5m 1781516100	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xf460c1…
06-15 09:32:58	eth updown 5m 1781515800	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xbee07c…
06-15 09:31:58	eth updown 5m 1781515800	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa0e4da…
06-15 09:01:31	eth updown 5m 1781514000	Down	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x9aef50…
06-15 09:00:30	eth updown 5m 1781514000	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xf3f516…
06-15 08:59:00	eth updown 5m 1781513700	Down	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0xe4f91f…
06-15 08:57:54	eth updown 5m 1781513700	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbd6c71…
06-15 08:46:31	eth updown 5m 1781513100	Up	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xedda68…
06-15 08:45:36	eth updown 5m 1781513100	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd00374…
06-15 08:41:49	eth updown 5m 1781512800	Up	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0x833651…
06-15 08:41:28	eth updown 5m 1781512800	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xc98079…
06-15 08:32:55	btc updown 5m 1781512200	Down	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x867749…
06-15 08:32:24	btc updown 5m 1781512200	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x51b809…
06-15 08:26:42	btc updown 5m 1781511900	Up	SELL	13	79¢	$11	0xeae3a0…
06-15 08:25:30	btc updown 5m 1781511900	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xbe2ac5…
06-15 08:23:27	btc updown 5m 1781511600	Up	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x0fcf3a…
06-15 08:20:55	btc updown 5m 1781511600	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1921dc…
06-15 08:17:12	btc updown 5m 1781511300	Down	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x11b798…
06-15 08:15:57	btc updown 5m 1781511300	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xb18e49…
06-15 08:10:43	btc updown 5m 1781511000	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7cdf22…
06-15 08:10:42	btc updown 5m 1781511000	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc770cb…
06-15 08:08:55	btc updown 5m 1781510700	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xfc474b…
06-15 08:07:45	btc updown 5m 1781510700	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x035258…
06-15 08:05:52	btc updown 5m 1781510700	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xa32259…
06-15 08:04:10	btc updown 5m 1781510700	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe94f0f…
06-15 08:02:12	btc updown 5m 1781510400	Up	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0xdb044b…
06-15 08:01:48	btc updown 5m 1781510400	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x0bfedf…
06-14 21:46:51	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 spread away 1pt5	Tunisia	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x1d2dbb…
06-14 21:41:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	48	8¢	$4	0xaf8528…
06-07 17:19:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0xe58e90…
06-07 17:17:40	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa250ff…
06-07 17:16:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Yes	SELL	333	2¢	$8	0x8b2163…
06-07 17:14:04	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0xaed87d…
06-07 16:57:34	will msft dip to 405 in june 2026	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x3fd179…
06-05 14:01:52	will msft reach 480 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x12c861…
06-04 17:03:33	will msft dip to 405 in june 2026	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x8c66ac…
06-03 17:46:22	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June?	No	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xcce941…
06-03 17:46:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?	Yes	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xd35df4…
06-03 17:44:16	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0x88ac26…
06-03 17:43:19	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?	No	SELL	54	61¢	$33	0x59a213…
06-02 15:07:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	49	15¢	$7	0xb68497…
06-02 15:07:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	31	15¢	$5	0x7959e1…
06-02 14:48:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x35268f…
06-02 11:06:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xfc2b31…
06-02 11:06:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x988342…
06-01 18:57:43	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in June?	No	BUY	125	12¢	$15	0x61fc3d…
06-01 18:55:14	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?	No	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xbdcf15…
05-26 10:36:10	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	SELL	57	39¢	$22	0xff2a39…
05-22 14:20:57	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xfc3e4c…
05-20 18:40:39	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xfceef2…
05-20 13:35:16	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x3d1616…
05-19 12:29:20	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	187	21¢	$40	0xb84dea…
05-19 12:07:33	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x44b33d…
05-18 15:38:05	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xbca43c…
05-17 07:32:02	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x521141…
05-17 07:27:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xa560e3…
05-15 12:17:03	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	No	SELL	48	39¢	$19	0xa5665f…
05-14 20:16:28	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xd63dde…
05-14 20:15:11	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x2b985f…
05-14 08:49:08	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	No	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xaa5a60…
05-10 19:08:23	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x2f1c38…
05-10 18:48:25	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xb5215a…
05-03 14:40:18	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xc8270f…
05-03 14:39:00	Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xc833f0…
04-28 06:09:50	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xc7d19d…
04-17 16:23:36	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	28	40¢	$11	0xcb3a37…
04-17 16:23:24	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	38	40¢	$15	0x9fd56b…
04-09 19:19:59	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xfedf73…
04-09 19:16:59	msft up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x1ebbe0…
04-02 07:07:17	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	192	10¢	$18	0xf73ee4…
04-01 17:34:41	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x038e89…
04-01 15:33:35	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xe01fa1…
03-31 22:58:45	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	222	8¢	$18	0xbd8d53…
03-26 09:11:11	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	56	11¢	$6	0x81f368…
03-24 18:12:29	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x6d6e33…
03-24 09:53:09	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	SELL	45	12¢	$5	0x4fb425…
03-23 12:59:39	cbb ark arz 2026 03 26	Arkansas Razorbacks	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xb29850…
03-19 08:24:27	us evacuates baghdad embassy by march 31	Yes	SELL	23	16¢	$4	0xb2c7b3…
03-19 08:10:25	will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xaa03d0…
03-18 18:10:59	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x00a673…
03-18 18:03:41	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	27	16¢	$4	0xfbf715…
03-18 14:11:45	spx up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x9ecad2…
03-18 13:58:07	acn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 19 2026 2pt85	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6c9e50…
03-18 13:57:37	five quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 4	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x998114…
03-18 13:57:27	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xc64e45…
03-18 00:02:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	79	24¢	$19	0xf279a0…
03-18 00:00:25	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x707fb8…
03-17 23:59:41	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	7¢	$9	0xe337d7…
03-17 23:59:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0xbba00d…
03-16 15:41:25	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0x0ae8d1…
03-16 14:48:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xa5edd8…
03-16 14:42:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6e5e04…