Realized P&L
-$1
Unrealized P&L
+$0
Hit rate
69.5%
Resolved
6
Trades
5,456
lifetime
Volume
$12.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$25
25 positions
First seen
2026-02-02
last 07-15 07:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Crypto
63%
Other
27% 50% $-1
Politics
6% 100% +$0
Sports
4% 50% $-0
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes -12 $-4 22¢ $-3 +$1 05-31 01:37
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -3 $-2 74¢ $-2 $-0 06-01 07:05
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +3 $2 70¢ $2 +$0 07-06 06:41
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -2 $-1 80¢ $-2 $-1 06-16 03:23
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? Yes -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 06-01 07:06
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No -1 $-1 92¢ $-1 $-0 06-16 04:53
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +1 $1 86¢ $1 +$0 06-10 17:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -1 $-1 72¢ $-1 +$0 06-01 07:06
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 78¢ $1 +$0 07-06 06:41
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 86¢ $1 +$0 07-04 14:00
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +2 $1 42¢ $1 +$0 07-06 21:52
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No -2 $-1 50¢ $-1 $-0 06-01 07:06
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -1 $-1 98¢ $-1 $-0 06-01 07:06
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes -2 $-1 50¢ $-1 $-0 06-01 07:06
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No -2 $-1 50¢ $-1 +$0 06-01 07:06
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +4 $1 24¢ $1 $-0 06-10 17:50
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes +20 $1 $1 $-0 06-15 08:41
Will Alberta join the US? Yes +26 $1 $1 $-0 06-10 17:50
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes -4 $-2 16¢ $-1 +$1 06-01 12:45
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes -2 $-1 30¢ $-1 +$0 06-11 19:17
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes -2 $-1 30¢ $-0 +$1 06-01 07:06
US recession by end of 2026? Yes -3 $-1 12¢ $-0 +$0 06-01 07:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +6 $1 $0 $-1 07-05 08:03
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +0 $-0 86¢ $0 +$0 07-13 13:40
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes +0 $0 22¢ $0 $-0 07-06 12:35