Grumpy-Retouching — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

166

lifetime

Volume

$9.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 08-07 14:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

43% — —

Other

39% 0% $-7

Tech

10% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	4	$3.4K	1,847	1,847	+0	open	—	02-01 08:55
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	22	$1.8K	1,871	0	+1,871	open	—	03-11 19:58
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	11	$1.2K	1,250	0	+1,250	open	—	03-23 00:43
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	6	$926	532	532	+0	open	—	04-17 16:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$419	549	0	+549	open	—	03-25 10:01
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	6	$261	279	0	+279	open	—	03-12 16:25
btc updown 5m 1774568100	2	$193	99	99	+0	open	—	03-26 23:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$119	64	127	-63	open	—	06-01 12:06
btc updown 5m 1775294100	2	$62	66	0	+66	open	—	04-04 09:19
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$52	115	0	+115	open	—	08-07 14:25
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$51	145	0	+145	open	—	03-11 18:10
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	1	$50	500	0	+500	open	—	02-20 22:02
btc updown 5m 1774566900	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	03-26 23:20
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$40	696	0	+696	open	—	01-15 16:25
btc updown 5m 1774819800	2	$35	65	0	+65	open	—	03-29 21:35
btc updown 5m 1774820100	2	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	03-29 21:40
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	5	$28	18	18	+0	open	—	04-22 15:53
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	1	$25	63	0	+63	open	—	03-19 12:02
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	5	$25	63	0	+63	open	—	03-19 12:50
btc updown 5m 1774441800	2	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	03-25 12:34
Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-29 19:27
btc updown 5m 1774819200	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-29 21:25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	2	$18	13	13	+0	open	—	04-25 18:26
btc updown 5m 1774903800	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	03-30 20:55
btc updown 5m 1774944300	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 08:10
btc updown 5m 1774980600	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 18:15
btc updown 5m 1775033400	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-01 08:55
btc updown 5m 1775199000	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-03 06:55
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 19:26
claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	2	$11	127	0	+127	open	—	04-16 12:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 14:25:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	115	45¢	$52	0xb7254b…
07-14 18:49:28	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2227da…
07-06 08:36:47	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x1ac105…
07-02 21:13:25	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 btts	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7831a2…
06-01 12:06:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x8f9c29…
06-01 12:05:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x6fac31…
06-01 12:00:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	127	62¢	$79	0xb892b9…
05-29 08:30:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x478765…
05-17 07:35:39	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xa8fefb…
05-13 15:32:12	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x502369…
05-13 15:27:28	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x014faa…
05-13 15:26:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9b4839…
05-13 15:26:27	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb6a48a…
05-13 15:24:09	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x4addf3…
05-13 15:23:58	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x8353dd…
05-13 15:23:32	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc00232…
05-10 22:20:10	Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xea4e2d…
05-06 08:06:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x60d13b…
05-05 16:59:08	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x86e26d…
04-29 19:27:08	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0xdec663…
04-29 19:26:38	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x350e13…
04-29 13:51:48	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x66a868…
04-29 13:48:34	Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfc9397…
04-29 13:47:38	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x864acd…
04-28 10:54:34	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xca8b93…
04-28 10:43:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2c3ce4…
04-27 15:46:10	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0c49b5…
04-27 14:12:18	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe92017…
04-25 18:26:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7998a0…
04-23 11:19:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x148d12…
04-22 15:53:34	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x842194…
04-22 15:15:24	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x7ed984…
04-21 17:39:36	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe3f4d8…
04-21 11:46:04	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd2d033…
04-21 11:26:44	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xe58d45…
04-21 10:51:46	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0x8dc8ee…
04-21 10:51:44	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x0abf2d…
04-21 10:25:18	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x8d23f1…
04-20 18:00:46	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 20 2026	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe65a3c…
04-20 11:39:42	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xd68efe…
04-20 11:39:32	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xad08e6…
04-20 11:38:36	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 20 2026	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x00736d…
04-17 16:32:16	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	65	99¢	$65	0xd720b9…
04-17 16:30:18	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	467	99¢	$464	0x1b52a9…
04-16 12:56:04	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	72	8¢	$6	0x307676…
04-16 11:02:24	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xed7017…
04-11 14:00:11	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 40 64	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x1dbcdd…
04-10 18:05:51	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	297	84¢	$250	0x8691ca…
04-10 17:46:21	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	84¢	$65	0x69ba61…
04-09 19:57:17	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x0f14ef…
04-09 02:05:57	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xba49d6…
04-04 09:19:29	btc updown 5m 1775294100	Down	BUY	63	96¢	$60	0xb8abf1…
04-04 09:18:51	btc updown 5m 1775294100	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x2c1d3e…
04-04 08:19:49	eth updown 5m 1775290500	Up	SELL	9	33¢	$3	0x403c17…
04-04 08:15:49	eth updown 5m 1775290500	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbd6f12…
04-04 07:29:09	btc updown 5m 1775287500	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x0b5c09…
04-03 18:57:17	btc updown 5m 1775242500	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xfc2e5b…
04-03 10:07:57	btc updown 5m 1775210700	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x27c211…
04-03 08:51:01	btc updown 5m 1775206200	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x828f52…
04-03 07:05:13	btc updown 5m 1775199600	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x08a3df…
04-03 07:01:01	btc updown 5m 1775199600	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x9cf6e7…
04-03 06:55:11	btc updown 5m 1775199000	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7e42dc…
04-03 06:52:39	btc updown 5m 1775199000	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x1c0cec…
04-01 08:55:17	btc updown 5m 1775033400	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x46eb2e…
04-01 08:51:27	btc updown 5m 1775033400	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x8037c5…
04-01 08:40:59	btc updown 5m 1775032800	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9ca11b…
04-01 08:35:55	btc updown 5m 1775032500	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x9043ef…
04-01 08:30:31	btc updown 5m 1775032200	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x27a5ee…
03-31 18:15:11	btc updown 5m 1774980600	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x471434…
03-31 18:10:37	btc updown 5m 1774980600	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0c2006…
03-31 08:25:31	btc updown 5m 1774945500	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x50404e…
03-31 08:10:23	btc updown 5m 1774944300	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbb0bf0…
03-31 08:06:07	btc updown 5m 1774944300	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x84bf86…
03-30 21:23:27	btc updown 5m 1774905600	Down	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x1dd59f…
03-30 21:21:49	btc updown 5m 1774905600	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x724b5e…
03-30 21:04:03	btc updown 5m 1774904400	Up	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x715fd0…
03-30 21:00:25	btc updown 5m 1774904400	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb17224…
03-30 20:55:19	btc updown 5m 1774903800	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xaa79d2…
03-30 20:50:35	btc updown 5m 1774903800	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdf918d…
03-29 21:40:54	btc updown 5m 1774820400	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xa4d38a…
03-29 21:40:16	btc updown 5m 1774820100	Down	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x428215…
03-29 21:39:22	btc updown 5m 1774820100	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x813d54…
03-29 21:35:04	btc updown 5m 1774819800	Up	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x34bd0a…
03-29 21:30:18	btc updown 5m 1774819800	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x85b2f6…
03-29 21:25:10	btc updown 5m 1774819200	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xf71d83…
03-29 21:24:12	btc updown 5m 1774819200	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x4356b4…
03-26 23:41:17	btc updown 5m 1774568100	Up	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0xd7e894…
03-26 23:37:57	btc updown 5m 1774568100	Up	BUY	99	95¢	$94	0x2584a1…
03-26 23:28:05	btc updown 5m 1774567500	Up	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x8bca9c…
03-26 23:26:29	btc updown 5m 1774567500	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x7a633b…
03-26 23:20:09	btc updown 5m 1774566900	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x159a63…
03-26 23:19:21	btc updown 5m 1774566900	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xc078f5…
03-26 14:11:03	btc updown 5m 1774534200	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2725dd…
03-26 13:03:31	btc updown 5m 1774530000	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xba97e2…
03-26 12:56:11	btc updown 5m 1774529700	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xdb5730…
03-25 19:51:39	btc updown 5m 1774468200	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x0aa20f…
03-25 18:52:13	btc updown 5m 1774464600	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xa27ec3…
03-25 16:15:31	btc updown 5m 1774455300	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3a296c…
03-25 16:10:59	btc updown 5m 1774455000	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x6a9958…
03-25 12:34:47	btc updown 5m 1774441800	Up	SELL	25	75¢	$18	0xdcd131…