Measly-Elderberry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39

Unrealized P&L

-$239

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$900

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 06-02 07:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 14% +$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	-791	$-459	74¢	$-581	$-122	05-28 04:04
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-315	$-130	62¢	$-196	$-66	05-28 04:04
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	-223	$-72	55¢	$-123	$-51	05-28 04:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$1.8K	234,854	0	+234,854	open	—	06-02 07:18
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$459	0	791	-791	open	—	05-28 04:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$287	1,250	1,088	+162	Down	+$399	05-13 15:44
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$130	0	315	-315	open	—	05-28 04:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	1	$75	469	0	+469	Yes	$-75	05-12 10:02
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$72	0	223	-223	open	—	05-28 04:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$55	204	0	+204	Up	$-55	05-13 09:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$50	470	0	+470	Down	$-50	05-13 09:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$35	309	0	+309	open	—	05-14 06:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	8	$34	34	34	+0	open	—	05-25 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$26	480	0	+480	Up	$-26	05-13 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$25	500	0	+500	Up	$-25	05-13 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$25	459	0	+459	Up	$-25	05-13 16:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$25	598	0	+598	Down	$-25	05-13 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$25	216	0	+216	open	—	05-25 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$25	859	0	+859	Up	$-25	05-13 16:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	1	$25	1,843	0	+1,843	Yes	$-25	05-12 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$25	2,498	0	+2,498	Up	$-25	05-13 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$20	667	0	+667	Up	$-20	05-13 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$14	39	0	+39	Down	+$25	05-13 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	2	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	$-10	05-13 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	4	$4	80	0	+80	open	—	05-25 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 07:18:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108,366	1¢	$867	0x846a02…
06-02 06:58:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16,667	1¢	$150	0xb80df3…
06-02 06:42:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42,857	1¢	$300	0xb9d680…
06-02 06:42:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35,714	1¢	$250	0x11665e…
06-02 06:30:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31,250	1¢	$250	0xd0e303…
05-28 04:04:32	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	791	58¢	$459	0xb2bd3a…
05-28 04:04:29	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	315	41¢	$130	0xd3727f…
05-28 04:04:25	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	223	32¢	$72	0xa245aa…
05-25 13:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0xd46f9f…
05-25 13:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x7a460a…
05-25 13:46:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x181d8b…
05-25 13:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc32d3a…
05-25 13:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x008215…
05-25 13:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x93d90c…
05-25 13:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf514a1…
05-25 13:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6e2efb…
05-25 13:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd476dd…
05-25 13:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xec6386…
05-25 13:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0x0b2ea6…
05-25 13:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x4afe89…
05-25 13:39:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	216	12¢	$25	0x9fdffa…
05-14 06:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb53278…
05-14 06:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x454f12…
05-13 16:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	859	3¢	$25	0x05b88c…
05-13 16:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	459	5¢	$25	0x11615d…
05-13 16:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x3d3a42…
05-13 16:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x2472b3…
05-13 16:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	167	9¢	$15	0x19ce44…
05-13 16:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	39	36¢	$14	0x915a1a…
05-13 16:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2,498	1¢	$25	0x3e9e21…
05-13 16:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd35ba0…
05-13 16:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	230	9¢	$21	0xe45961…
05-13 15:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1,088	24¢	$262	0xa16887…
05-13 15:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0x044833…
05-13 09:53:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	226	11¢	$25	0xdaca12…
05-13 09:53:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	244	10¢	$25	0xba6b2d…
05-13 09:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	598	4¢	$25	0x4d981d…
05-13 09:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8a93f8…
05-13 09:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x2b1124…
05-13 09:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x489f39…
05-13 03:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9b48d7…
05-13 03:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6182af…
05-12 10:02:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	1,843	1¢	$25	0xec58ee…
05-12 10:02:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	469	16¢	$75	0x274a0a…